The 2016 WRC has been quite the game so far, looking quite unlike the previous three years in some ways, yet sounding comfortably familiar in others. There have been the usual mix of outstanding individual performances and own goals. Intra-team sniping and unexpected empathy. Astonishing success and epic fails. And as the 2017 season with its changes and challenges heaves into view, this is as good a time as any to cover off a few of the highs, lows and the head-scratchingly unexpected. So let's have at it...
Six Different Winners In Seven Rounds
Finally the tedium of seeing a single marque and a single driver in the "Win" column virtually every round has gone. Regardless of your particular preferences for driver or make, you must still agree that 2016 has been a pleasant departure from the predictability of the past 12 years.
So far we have seen two wins from Ogier, and one win each from Latvala, Meeke, Paddon, Neuville and Mikkelsen. And while the main VW team has three wins to its credit over the two wins from the Hyundai #2 team, Citroen's semi-works effort and the VW2 team victory, the appearance of some machinery sans the VW logo in the winner's circle generates hope that this season will end a lot closer than we've seen for a very long time. Gotta be good for the sport
Way To Push Privateers Out Of The Sport
Ignoring the weirdness surrounding the stewards' decision to penalise Martin Prokop for a gearbox seal infringement which had been present on earlier events (mainly choosing to ignore said weirdness because Martin had already announced his intention to pull back from the WRC to go play in the Dakar and indulge in other pastimes, so it was already moot and the penalty was overturned anyway), the proposed 2017 season regulation that will ban most if not all "gentlemen drivers" from piloting the new-spec cars, is seen by most as a given.
If a privateer team such as Bertelli's fuckmatie squad cannot get their hands on the same spec vehicle as their opposition, they'll have two thirds of three fifths of stuff-all chance of being in the match at all. The FIA/WRC have subsequently let it be known that they're considering imposing their restriction on a case-by-case basis, rather than a blanket ban.
However, without a so-called "Super Licence" style qualification programme in place, the ad-hoc nature of the WRC's proposed regime seems to invite potential unfairness and cronyism. Let's hope they see the merit in a more formal qualification plan if they confirm the implementation of the pseudo-ban.
The '17-Spec Cars Will Be Deadly In The Wrong Hands?
Apparently so.
Yes, you could be forgiven for thinking that surely that also applies to the '16 spec weapons (which mysteriously avoid being banned from privateer use). And you would be correct. Presumably then, you'll be even more dead after mishandling your 2017-spec WRC car, than with the 2016 jobbie. Even though the aero packages, track enhancements and electronic centre diffs of next season's models are expected to make the beasts easier to drive at pace than the current versions.
The vexed question of how the galactically less-skilled WRC2 bods will bridge the newly-embiggerated gap to '17-spec divinity, has forced the WRC steering committee to consider yet another class of competition, this time between WRC2 and WRC, (WRC2+ maybe? Or WRC Minus?) using all the pre-'17 spec WR Car cast-offs that the constructors no longer want or need. Hmmm... not sure that's going to appeal to the likes of VW and Hyundai.
Whatever they decide, the whole notion of the 2017-spec cars being death-traps for anyone but the WRC elite, smacks of bovine effluent. The regs as revealed thus far suggest a measured increase in performance rather than a return to Group B arms-race lunacy.
Can you say "overreaction"?
Jut Like That Old Time Rock 'n Roll
Jari-Matti Latvala looked for all money like he had Argentina in the bag on the Saturday with a demonstration of pace that reminded the unbiased observer of the JML of old. A pity then that the nearly-irresistable force that is the VW Polo R WRC met the immovable object of a largish piece of bedrock in the Finn's driving line with the result that the Polo lost that bout and JM-L lost the rally.
The car's front right strut was smacked upward, piercing the top-mount and bonnet, and destroying the Polo's steering. The spectacular rolls that followed finished the job for the unfortunate crew. Up to that point, he was a shoe-in for the top spot, but instead of scoring his second victory of the season, he was out and history records that Paddon took his first ever WRC win. It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good, as my Mum would say.
Following his Argentina victory, Paddon was in buoyant mood for Portugal, setting quick times and looking strong for a good placing. Unfortunately for the Kiwi, on the second running of Ponte de Lima, his pace was his undoing. Unknown to the WRC contenders, following the first loop, a large hole had opened up on the racing line. This menace was obscured until the drivers were upon it, so all the leading WRC cars were at risk and each one in turn had a moment.
In Paddon's case, his greater speed launched the i20 through the air and into collision with the raised rockface on the inside edge of the road. The impact spun the Hyundai around and it exited the track backwards down a bank, flipping before landing back on its wheels.
The crew evacuated the car just in time to avoid being immolated in a subsequent fire ignited by the i20's hot exhaust, and the Hyundai was totally burnt out. A very big consequence for what was really a tiny misstep. Ott Tanak had the same experience with a very similar result, although with the help of the Kiwi crew, spectators and marshalls, they saved the Fiesta from the flames. Only Mads Ostberg's slightly slower pace had prevented his demise at the same spot.
Tanak was lucky that his Fiesta RS WRC survived, but his luck took a turn for the worse two events later in Poland while leading the rally by 18 seconds over Andreas Mikkelsen. With just two stages left, a puncture robbed him of his first win at the WRC top level, a victory that all who saw his performance agreed would have been a just reward for an outstanding drive over the rally's three days.
One can but commiserate with the Estonian and his DMACK team that they came so close. And M-Sport's Malcolm Wilson must have been gutted in missing out on the Fiesta's first rally win since 2012, a result that the Cumbrian firm sorely needs. At least the pace Tanak showed in Poland will give them great heart for a decent placing in the similar conditions of Finland.
The Resurrection Of Thierry Neuville
The Belgian has seen his fortunes change for the better as the season has progressed and the Hyundai squad has accordingly reaped the benefits of his improved performance. Especially as far as the Motorsport N team is concerned.
So far, both wins for the Korean manufacturer have been by the #20 entry, which, against expectations, have given the N team a healthy points boost. Not what M. Nandan would have preferred, I'm sure, but the same applies to Mikkelsen's win for the VW second team so not so disadvantageous as it seems at first glance.
So far this season, Neuville has bagged 61 points, currently sitting in 7th place which you might have thought unlikely viewing his performances at the conclusion of the 2015 season. So what's changed? According to Thierry, they've finally given him a competitive car.
A mechanical glitch here and there, a wee fuel miscalculation and the occasional less than perfect tyre choice have all conspired to disguise quite how much the Belgian has improved in 2016, but improve he did. A first, a third, a fourth and a sixth all contributing to his renaissance in the World Rally Championship.
At the half-time drinks break, Thierry has shown that he's going to challenge the leaders in the second half. A new, more positive attitude, a faster car, a boost in confidence and the desire to improve his value for the silly season approaching have come together to make him more competitive, more results-focused than we've seen for a while.
Whether or not Thierry is doing this with the team in mind, the benefits to Hyundai Motorsport GMBH will be tangible. But will he stay with the team for another three years? Doubtful. Particularly because much interest has already been expressed by the other teams toward the Belgian and he's heading into the prime years where he'll command the highest salary.
Still, you never know - Hyundai is serious about their WRC ambitions and they're well-funded, so in a bidding war they will be competitive. If they believe their future requires Neuville, then don't count them out. But my gut tells me that the rocky road that is the Hyundai/Neuville relationship has seen too much ego puncturing to navigate easily. We'll know in just a few weeks time, I think...
The Silly Season Arrives Early This Year
So having touched on the topic of factory seats, now seems as good a time as any to take a deeper look. Let's start with VW - because they're the easiest.
Ogier, Latvala and Mikkelsen are all confirmed as driving for Volkswagen Motorsport in 2017. Whether the rules mandate a three car team or the current two-team structure, there will be no driver changes for next season.
However, VW team boss Capito has suggested that their World Champion might retire from the sport should the start order not be changed so that the Frenchman is no longer disadvantaged. Unlikely, given that changes are mooted, and Ogier still has unfinished business in the WRC. But good for talking points...
Hyundai has yet to finalise their lineup for 2017. Paddon is contracted to the end of 2018, Sordo has signed anew until the end of 2018 but Neuville has yet to commit. Hyundai boss Nandan has let it be known that his preference is to have the same crews as for the past two years, meaning Thierry is welcome to remain, but it's up to the Belgian to choose his home for the next two seasons.
Right now, the possibilities are for Citroen and Hyundai to provide berths but there's an admittedly faint possibility that M-Sport could also be in the frame. Toyota-Gazoo looks unlikely at this point in time though.
My bet? Neuville will join Meeke at Citroen. We shall have to wait and see...
Citroen has been adamant that they won't be running a third car in their 2017 campaign. With Meeke confirmed for 2017 and 2018, there will be just a single space for three prospective candidates for the second seat. Neuville, as mentioned, LeFebvre or Breen.
Breen is seen as a bit of an outside chance, talented but not yet a sure bet. Being French, LeFebvre is a favourite to score a place in the French squad - in addition to his speed, the Frenchman has the inside running due to the historical preference by Citroen to promote their countrymen.
If Neuville bags the second drive though, it's not at all unlikely that PH would run a semi-works team for LeFebvre, and perhaps even another car for Breen.
TMR-Gazoo is the big mystery. Here are the drivers who won't be in the 2017 team:
Loeb. Petter Solberg. Mads Ostberg. Thierry Neuville. So, besides Juho Hanninen, Makinen's current favourite, who else might headline the Toyota team's efforts in 2017? So far, the probables seem to be from a trio of talented newcomers to the WRC; Suninen,
Lappi and Tidemund.
Who'll get the seats? It's a coin-flip I'm afraid.
And last, but never to be counted out, M-Sport is developing a 2017 spec car based on the yet-to-be-released 2017 model-year Fiesta. So don't doubt for a moment that Wilson will enter at least two cars next season. But there's a catch...
DMACK tyres apparently approached M-Sport with a deal for next year. What form that deal takes is unknown but speculation is rife that in turn for M-Sport using DMACK's tyres exclusively, the tyre maker will fund a two-car WRC challenge in '17.
But this is where it gets complicated - both Ott Tanak and Elfyn Evans were dumped from M-Sport's 2015 main squad and were replaced by Mads Ostberg and Eric Camilli. It seems likely that the DMACK deal would require Tanak and Evans to take over the main team seats from Ostberg and Camilli, leaving both of those latter drivers either out of a job, or at best, in a second string M-Sport team. Not a happy circumstance for either driver.
But what if M-Sport doesn't go for the DMACK deal?
DMACK could run its own team again, this time with both Tanak and Evans, in whatever car they can negotiate. And that isn't necessarily a Ford. In fact, Citroen has the head start in development to be in a position to build six cars prior to the Monte - one each for Meeke, Neuville, Lefebvre, Breen, Tanak and Evans if they so wished.
There's no doubt that the Citroen Racing firm would be able to run three cars if it felt the need, and the semi-works PH Sport team could do the same. Or Citroen could stick to two cars while PH Sport could run a team with Tanak, Evans and Lefebvre.
Of course, DMACK have a history with M-Sport - Tanak in the Fiesta RS WRC and Evans in the R5 version - so it's entirely possible that they'd stick with the Cumbrian constructor. Probable, in fact. But so far it's certainly not a given.
Like I said, the silly season is early this year.
Showing posts with label Mikkelsen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mikkelsen. Show all posts
Thursday, July 14, 2016
Wednesday, July 6, 2016
WRC '16 - A Mads Mystery
There's a universal adage that reads something like this...
"If you're not going forward, you're going backwards".
It's a truism that could have been written for Mads Ostberg. You see, the popular Norwegian driver has always been there or thereabouts when it comes to pace, with moments when he really looked the business behind the wheel of whatever rally weapon he happened to inhabit at that time. But the WRC doesn't stand still as clearly demonstrated in the results achieved by the current crop of talented stage-winners. It's not enough just to be quick - you have to be challenging for the stage win. Or the rally win.
Sadly, Mads isn't in that category. Despite his speed and consistency, Mads hasn't looked like a winner all season. Why is that? In a word, "stagnation". He has reached a plateau in his performances while most of his competition have improved. And there are also a clutch of guys whose experience and skills have yet to reach the rally-winner level, but who are already threatening to out-perform Mads in speed on a consistent basis.
That sounds really dire, I know, but is it as bad as it sounds? Well, that depends on Mads. This WRC ace thing needs more than natural ability and big cojones. It takes practice and an awful lot of hard work - just ask the Paddons, Breens, Evanses, Camillis, Tanaks and Mikkelsens (to name a few) of the WRC world. They're not sitting back, confident in their ability and expecting to be victorious. They're doing their utmost to improve - on every event.
Paddon is a classic example. Two seasons ago, he was seen as fortunate to have gained a foothold in the WRC, a surprisingly competent antipodean who punched above his weight and a bit of a David to virtually everybody else's Goliath. No longer.
The Kiwi's consistent and rapid gains in speed and skill have impressed every team boss in the WRC and the greater mass of the skeptical rally supporters worldwide. Yes, Hayden possesses the native talent to be competitive, but it's also due in large part to his unquenchable thirst to improve himself - to strive to be the best.
So he invests as much of his free time as he can in improving his skills. On tarmac, on gravel, in analysing conditions, in car set-up, learning from the performances of his rivals and probably most importantly, in being honest with himself as to his weaknesses and asking for help to overcome them. In a sport where ego is a huge component in motivation and success, the sort of self-analysis Paddon applies in his chosen career is key to the rate at which he has improved in his time in the WRC. Hard work trumps innate ability sometimes. And asking for help is rare at this level of competition.
But back to Mads - at the half-way point of the WRC season, the Norwegian's performance is neatly summed up by his place in the drivers' championship. Sixth overall compares poorly with the 3rd place he held after seven events last year. Yet the M-Sport lead driver has consistently voiced his satisfaction with his driving, despite the lacklustre times he's been posting. How can that be?
Mads has hinted at times that the Fiesta RS WRC is not capable of delivering more, that he has felt content with the performances he's putting in but the car is limiting the times they can achieve. Which may or may not have seemed a realistic interpretation until Rally Poland, where Ott Tanak, in a virtually identical vehicle, led the rally for three days, losing the victory only through time lost to a puncture and relegating the Estonian to second overall. But Tanak's performance across the event certainly undermines Mads's theory of the car being the limiting factor.
It's time for Mads to face the fact that he's slower because everybody else is now quicker. If he wants to get a factory seat in 2017, something that must be in serious doubt right now, then he will have to prove that this stagnation he's exhibiting is temporary and that he's capable of improving his own performance to once again match or better still, exceed, that of his peers. It's time for Mads to put in the required effort.
He's been a well-liked and respected competitor for ten plus years - it would be a shame to see him leave the World Rally Championship at this point in his career.
"If you're not going forward, you're going backwards".
It's a truism that could have been written for Mads Ostberg. You see, the popular Norwegian driver has always been there or thereabouts when it comes to pace, with moments when he really looked the business behind the wheel of whatever rally weapon he happened to inhabit at that time. But the WRC doesn't stand still as clearly demonstrated in the results achieved by the current crop of talented stage-winners. It's not enough just to be quick - you have to be challenging for the stage win. Or the rally win.
Sadly, Mads isn't in that category. Despite his speed and consistency, Mads hasn't looked like a winner all season. Why is that? In a word, "stagnation". He has reached a plateau in his performances while most of his competition have improved. And there are also a clutch of guys whose experience and skills have yet to reach the rally-winner level, but who are already threatening to out-perform Mads in speed on a consistent basis.
That sounds really dire, I know, but is it as bad as it sounds? Well, that depends on Mads. This WRC ace thing needs more than natural ability and big cojones. It takes practice and an awful lot of hard work - just ask the Paddons, Breens, Evanses, Camillis, Tanaks and Mikkelsens (to name a few) of the WRC world. They're not sitting back, confident in their ability and expecting to be victorious. They're doing their utmost to improve - on every event.
Paddon is a classic example. Two seasons ago, he was seen as fortunate to have gained a foothold in the WRC, a surprisingly competent antipodean who punched above his weight and a bit of a David to virtually everybody else's Goliath. No longer.
The Kiwi's consistent and rapid gains in speed and skill have impressed every team boss in the WRC and the greater mass of the skeptical rally supporters worldwide. Yes, Hayden possesses the native talent to be competitive, but it's also due in large part to his unquenchable thirst to improve himself - to strive to be the best.
So he invests as much of his free time as he can in improving his skills. On tarmac, on gravel, in analysing conditions, in car set-up, learning from the performances of his rivals and probably most importantly, in being honest with himself as to his weaknesses and asking for help to overcome them. In a sport where ego is a huge component in motivation and success, the sort of self-analysis Paddon applies in his chosen career is key to the rate at which he has improved in his time in the WRC. Hard work trumps innate ability sometimes. And asking for help is rare at this level of competition.
But back to Mads - at the half-way point of the WRC season, the Norwegian's performance is neatly summed up by his place in the drivers' championship. Sixth overall compares poorly with the 3rd place he held after seven events last year. Yet the M-Sport lead driver has consistently voiced his satisfaction with his driving, despite the lacklustre times he's been posting. How can that be?
Mads has hinted at times that the Fiesta RS WRC is not capable of delivering more, that he has felt content with the performances he's putting in but the car is limiting the times they can achieve. Which may or may not have seemed a realistic interpretation until Rally Poland, where Ott Tanak, in a virtually identical vehicle, led the rally for three days, losing the victory only through time lost to a puncture and relegating the Estonian to second overall. But Tanak's performance across the event certainly undermines Mads's theory of the car being the limiting factor.
It's time for Mads to face the fact that he's slower because everybody else is now quicker. If he wants to get a factory seat in 2017, something that must be in serious doubt right now, then he will have to prove that this stagnation he's exhibiting is temporary and that he's capable of improving his own performance to once again match or better still, exceed, that of his peers. It's time for Mads to put in the required effort.
He's been a well-liked and respected competitor for ten plus years - it would be a shame to see him leave the World Rally Championship at this point in his career.
Monday, March 7, 2016
WRC '16 - ¡Ay Caramba! in Mexico...
 |
| First points, first podium, first win for Jari-Matti in 2016 |
The sun is going down over Guanajuato as I begin to type this, the dust has already settled, the post-rally fiesta has begun in earnest. And the man with the biggest grin is Jari-Matti Latvala. After two disastrous previous events where the Finn failed to score a solitary point, the win in Mexico has turned his fortunes around - with the second placing on the power stage, a nice little bonus. Latvala is back in the game.
He drove what is as close to a faultless rally as it's possible to humanly do, and he deserved the top podium step. Sébastian Ogier, coping as usual with road-sweeping duties, took as many risks as he was reasonably able to, but with Jari's optimal road position, it was always a tall order for the World Champion to beat the Finn. That needed mistakes from Latvala that for once in quite a while he simply didn't make. This was as close to the perfect drive as one could ask for and bodes well for his remaining performances in 2016.
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
WRC '16 - Mexico can't be as bad as 2015...
At least we hope not. The Guanajuato-based event in 2015 was, to be blunt, utter carnage. The list of those who crashed out on the first full day makes for depressing reading:
1: Ott Tanak
2; Hayden Paddon
3: Robert Kubica
4: Kris Meeke
5: Lorenzo Bertelli
6: Thierry Neuville
7: Benito Guerra
Way to hand Sébastian Ogier the rally on un plato, amigos. Where the World Champ should have been doing some heavy-duty road-sweeping on the morning of the second full day, instead he left that chore up to the miscreants comprising the start list above. The Frenchman thus benefitted big time from his 8th position through the stages, and despite his professed belief before the rally that he had absolutely no chance of winning in Mexico, he romped home. If you're interested in my analysis of last year's Rally Mexico, click here.
This year though, Hyundai have come to la fiesta dressed as if they mean to get a decent result. In the main team, newly-invigorated Thierry Neuville and the ever-reliable Dani Sordo will be ably supported by the sensational Hayden Paddon with his B team entry, all three drivers steering the evolution NGi20 model cars from the Korean constructor. Already, the greater performance of the new car is evident and barring mechanical issues, they should all apply some badly-needed pressure to the Volkswagen Polo R boys.
Kris Meeke, in his "gap year" guise, would have had no point-scoring pressure and thus would have been able to push right from the start, to go head-to-head with VW's Ogier in the semi-works Citroen DS3 WRC. This car is more or less in identical spec to last year's Mexican entrant, so Kris would tell you that the German team would have the advantage in hardware, but he'd also admit that his road position would cancel that out, and he'd be in no doubt that he was in with at least a podium shot - maybe the win. But of course, he's not entered, so that's a battle we'll have to watch on another day.
Mads finished runner-up last year, through profiting greatly from the mistakes of others it must be said, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he can equal the feat it he stays out of trouble again this year, as M-Sport's lead driver. In fact if things go well for him, you can't with hand on heart exclude the Norwegian from the top podium step. While questions may be raised about his outright speed versus SebO and Jari-Matti, Mads's consistency credentials are undoubted.
Having tasted the reservoir water on the previous Rally Mexico, Ott Tanak will be reluctant to repeat the experience, so it would be absolutely reasonable to expect a highly-focused performance from DMACK's new signing. He'll be running the same spec car as M-Sport's Ostberg and Camilli, so his speed on this event will likely be in the same ballpark as his Michelin-shod competitors.
But here's a wee wrinkle that might put el gato among the pigeons - the road order this year has its share of jokers. See below...
1: Ogier
2: Mikkelsen
3: Ostberg:
4: Paddon
5: Sordo
6: Tanak
7: Neuville
8: Latvala
9: Camilli
10: Prokop
11: Bertelli
Both Neuville and Latvala have a significant theoretical road position advantage over the first three on the road, perceived wisdom suggesting that the lower-ordered pair may threaten Ogier for victory in the event - we shall see it that turns out to be the case.
Despite all that, Sébastian Ogier is still odds-on favourite to take maximum points on the stages of Guanajuato, his blend of driving skill, racecraft and luck making his defeat improbable despite his road-sweeping duties. But a win isn't a given, regardless of what the commentators, fans and bloggers may believe, and Mexico might, just might, give us a result that turns this championship on its head.
And no matter who you support, that wouldn't be a bad thing at all.
1: Ott Tanak
2; Hayden Paddon
3: Robert Kubica
4: Kris Meeke
5: Lorenzo Bertelli
6: Thierry Neuville
7: Benito Guerra
Way to hand Sébastian Ogier the rally on un plato, amigos. Where the World Champ should have been doing some heavy-duty road-sweeping on the morning of the second full day, instead he left that chore up to the miscreants comprising the start list above. The Frenchman thus benefitted big time from his 8th position through the stages, and despite his professed belief before the rally that he had absolutely no chance of winning in Mexico, he romped home. If you're interested in my analysis of last year's Rally Mexico, click here.
This year though, Hyundai have come to la fiesta dressed as if they mean to get a decent result. In the main team, newly-invigorated Thierry Neuville and the ever-reliable Dani Sordo will be ably supported by the sensational Hayden Paddon with his B team entry, all three drivers steering the evolution NGi20 model cars from the Korean constructor. Already, the greater performance of the new car is evident and barring mechanical issues, they should all apply some badly-needed pressure to the Volkswagen Polo R boys.
Kris Meeke, in his "gap year" guise, would have had no point-scoring pressure and thus would have been able to push right from the start, to go head-to-head with VW's Ogier in the semi-works Citroen DS3 WRC. This car is more or less in identical spec to last year's Mexican entrant, so Kris would tell you that the German team would have the advantage in hardware, but he'd also admit that his road position would cancel that out, and he'd be in no doubt that he was in with at least a podium shot - maybe the win. But of course, he's not entered, so that's a battle we'll have to watch on another day.
Mads finished runner-up last year, through profiting greatly from the mistakes of others it must be said, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he can equal the feat it he stays out of trouble again this year, as M-Sport's lead driver. In fact if things go well for him, you can't with hand on heart exclude the Norwegian from the top podium step. While questions may be raised about his outright speed versus SebO and Jari-Matti, Mads's consistency credentials are undoubted.
Having tasted the reservoir water on the previous Rally Mexico, Ott Tanak will be reluctant to repeat the experience, so it would be absolutely reasonable to expect a highly-focused performance from DMACK's new signing. He'll be running the same spec car as M-Sport's Ostberg and Camilli, so his speed on this event will likely be in the same ballpark as his Michelin-shod competitors.
But here's a wee wrinkle that might put el gato among the pigeons - the road order this year has its share of jokers. See below...
1: Ogier
2: Mikkelsen
3: Ostberg:
4: Paddon
5: Sordo
6: Tanak
7: Neuville
8: Latvala
9: Camilli
10: Prokop
11: Bertelli
Both Neuville and Latvala have a significant theoretical road position advantage over the first three on the road, perceived wisdom suggesting that the lower-ordered pair may threaten Ogier for victory in the event - we shall see it that turns out to be the case.
Despite all that, Sébastian Ogier is still odds-on favourite to take maximum points on the stages of Guanajuato, his blend of driving skill, racecraft and luck making his defeat improbable despite his road-sweeping duties. But a win isn't a given, regardless of what the commentators, fans and bloggers may believe, and Mexico might, just might, give us a result that turns this championship on its head.
And no matter who you support, that wouldn't be a bad thing at all.
Monday, February 15, 2016
WRC '16 - Does road position really matter?
World Champion Sébastian Ogier has made his feelings on road position clear. He doesn't like the current rule implementation one bit. Why? Because on some events, he feels disadvantaged, running as he does as Car #1 on every rally these days.
For those who aren't familiar with the rule, suffice to say that the start order of the Priority One (P1) drivers is determined by their current championship rank. So when Rally Mexico begins, the following order will apply:
1: S Ogier
2: A Mikkelsen
3: M Ostberg
4: H Paddon
5: D Sordo
...etc...
Current regulations dictate that Championship Order will apply to an event's Thursday (assuming the organisers have competition scheduled on the Thursday - not a given), Friday and Saturday. Sunday, however, uses a reverse order start, where competitors not competing under Rally 2 line up with the car lowest in classification rank first off the line, through to the highest-classified driver, who starts last of the P1 competitors not running under Rally 2.
Now we've got that out of the way, onto the ramifications of the rule.
The WRC is made up of mostly gravel-based events - Mexico, Argentina, Portugal, Italy, Poland, Finland, Wales and Australia.
There are four rounds based on sealed roads - Monte Carlo, Germany, China and France.
Spain also fits the "sealed surface" mold for the most part, although its first day traditionally has a mix of gravel stages and gravel/tarmac stages, so it doesn't fit quite so neatly into the other categories, but since by far the bulk of its competitive mileage is on tarmac, I'd include Rally Spain in the "sealed" category personally.
And there's the most recent rally, Sweden, which runs on snow and ice, which is (and should be) in a category of its own.
What sticks in M. Ogier's craw, is that as Car #1, he has the displeasure of sweeping loose road metal from the gravel stages which costs him time to the crews behind him, and in order to mitigate that time loss, the Frenchman is under pressure to take greater risks than he would take otherwise.
Basically then, Sébastian sees himself as disadvantaged on eight of the WRC rounds. Nine if you include Spain, but under the circumstances, I don't see any compelling reason to do so and I'll stick with eight as the defining number of "disadvantage" rounds.
However, since most of the rounds repeat their stages in the afternoon, what was a disadvantage to Car #1 in the morning loop generally becomes an advantage in the afternoon loop, as the roads cut up from the passing of each car.
The opposite applies pretty much with the sealed stages, Car #1 having pristine surface to compete on in the morning loop with the surface becoming compromised with each passing car cutting and dragging mud, rocks, dirt and such onto the road. However, the condition of the road surface changes little when the loop is repeated, with everybody managing virtually the same conditions. So the balancing out that we see on the gravel stages doesn't really take place on the sealed ones.
And of course, the reverse order start positions on Sunday further level the playing field.
So at this point, rather than Car #1 (Ogier in this scenario) being disadvantaged, on balance it's neutral or perhaps a modest advantage. Sweden is the orphan here - when the Swedish rally is delivering its "normal" conditions, good depth of snow, snowbanks, temperatures below zero and so on, road position is more or less equal in terms of advantage. Even on the most recent "abnormal" Swedish round, Sébastian seemed to be in receipt of some very advantageous conditions as Car #1 although clearly not always. I'd say it was a wash.
One intersting wrinkle that has emerged from Rally Sweden though relates to another competitor entirely. Haydon Paddon has benefitted from his relatively low road position on past events, something that has not gone unnoticed by the WRC media, bloggers and fans alike, with an undercurrent of questions regarding Paddon's ability to compete without such benefit.
Indeed, Hayden himself has been quick to acknowledge road position and stage conditions as factors in his outstanding performances last season and now in 2016. As a result of his superb 2nd place in Sweden, Hayden currently has a championship classification of 4th, meaning he'll start Rallye Mexico just 3 cars behind the World Champion. So it will be educational to discover how competitive the Kiwi ace can be against Ogier, when his road position is no longer seen as a factor in his pace.
No pressure Hayden. All I can add is... "Roll on Mexico".
For those who aren't familiar with the rule, suffice to say that the start order of the Priority One (P1) drivers is determined by their current championship rank. So when Rally Mexico begins, the following order will apply:
1: S Ogier
2: A Mikkelsen
3: M Ostberg
4: H Paddon
5: D Sordo
...etc...
Current regulations dictate that Championship Order will apply to an event's Thursday (assuming the organisers have competition scheduled on the Thursday - not a given), Friday and Saturday. Sunday, however, uses a reverse order start, where competitors not competing under Rally 2 line up with the car lowest in classification rank first off the line, through to the highest-classified driver, who starts last of the P1 competitors not running under Rally 2.
Now we've got that out of the way, onto the ramifications of the rule.
The WRC is made up of mostly gravel-based events - Mexico, Argentina, Portugal, Italy, Poland, Finland, Wales and Australia.
There are four rounds based on sealed roads - Monte Carlo, Germany, China and France.
Spain also fits the "sealed surface" mold for the most part, although its first day traditionally has a mix of gravel stages and gravel/tarmac stages, so it doesn't fit quite so neatly into the other categories, but since by far the bulk of its competitive mileage is on tarmac, I'd include Rally Spain in the "sealed" category personally.
And there's the most recent rally, Sweden, which runs on snow and ice, which is (and should be) in a category of its own.
What sticks in M. Ogier's craw, is that as Car #1, he has the displeasure of sweeping loose road metal from the gravel stages which costs him time to the crews behind him, and in order to mitigate that time loss, the Frenchman is under pressure to take greater risks than he would take otherwise.
Basically then, Sébastian sees himself as disadvantaged on eight of the WRC rounds. Nine if you include Spain, but under the circumstances, I don't see any compelling reason to do so and I'll stick with eight as the defining number of "disadvantage" rounds.
However, since most of the rounds repeat their stages in the afternoon, what was a disadvantage to Car #1 in the morning loop generally becomes an advantage in the afternoon loop, as the roads cut up from the passing of each car.
The opposite applies pretty much with the sealed stages, Car #1 having pristine surface to compete on in the morning loop with the surface becoming compromised with each passing car cutting and dragging mud, rocks, dirt and such onto the road. However, the condition of the road surface changes little when the loop is repeated, with everybody managing virtually the same conditions. So the balancing out that we see on the gravel stages doesn't really take place on the sealed ones.
And of course, the reverse order start positions on Sunday further level the playing field.
So at this point, rather than Car #1 (Ogier in this scenario) being disadvantaged, on balance it's neutral or perhaps a modest advantage. Sweden is the orphan here - when the Swedish rally is delivering its "normal" conditions, good depth of snow, snowbanks, temperatures below zero and so on, road position is more or less equal in terms of advantage. Even on the most recent "abnormal" Swedish round, Sébastian seemed to be in receipt of some very advantageous conditions as Car #1 although clearly not always. I'd say it was a wash.
One intersting wrinkle that has emerged from Rally Sweden though relates to another competitor entirely. Haydon Paddon has benefitted from his relatively low road position on past events, something that has not gone unnoticed by the WRC media, bloggers and fans alike, with an undercurrent of questions regarding Paddon's ability to compete without such benefit.
Indeed, Hayden himself has been quick to acknowledge road position and stage conditions as factors in his outstanding performances last season and now in 2016. As a result of his superb 2nd place in Sweden, Hayden currently has a championship classification of 4th, meaning he'll start Rallye Mexico just 3 cars behind the World Champion. So it will be educational to discover how competitive the Kiwi ace can be against Ogier, when his road position is no longer seen as a factor in his pace.
No pressure Hayden. All I can add is... "Roll on Mexico".
Friday, February 12, 2016
WRC'16 - Will Sweden be Paddon's maiden victory?
The Kiwi duo of Hayden Paddon and John Kennard are in good shape to realise the promise of their factory seats, by winning Rallye Sweden, round #2 of the WRC.
Enjoying their first outing in the Hyundai NGi20 WRC, the pair began their Swedish adventure with understandable caution given the low-speed incident that destroyed a wheel and any chance of doing well on the Monte Carlo Rally a couple of weeks ago.
Nevertheless, despite that setback and their unfamiliarity with the new car, the pairing set about getting to grips with the Scandanavian round, run in unusually warm and snow-deprived conditions. The lack of ice and snow on Friday's first three stages suited three-times world champ Sébastian Ogier well in his position as first on the road, the road surface degrading with each passing car, while Paddon, starting ninth, was forced to endure the slush from the eight previous drivers.
At the end of the morning loop then, Paddon found himself 45.7 seconds behind rally leader Ogier (also 21.5 seconds behind the "local" driver, second-placed Mikkelssen, and 9.4 seconds behind another "local", the fifth-placed Ostberg).
At this point, the fickle Scandanavian climate factored itself into the equation, and the afternoon loop was quite different. Snow had begun to fall and ambient temperatures dropped below zero, meaning that Ogier's road position advantage evaporated while Paddon's disadvantage did the same. Ogier was now sweeping the roads clear of snow, and each passing car contributed to further improving the grip for the following vehicles.
Paddon, and the driver immediately before him, Kris Meeke, saw benefits straight away and Meeke was fastest in the afternoon opener with Paddon only 5 seconds slower in second fastest. Meeke moved from 3rd into 2nd overall while Paddon climbed one place to 6th. Ogier, who admitted pushing hard, could do no better than 4th fastest although the Frenchman continued to hold the rally lead, 21 seconds in front of Kris.
SS8 saw Meeke's retirement caused by an impact with a hidden boulder, and Paddon took the stage win, 12.1 seconds faster than Ogier, 1.5 seconds quicker than Ostberg. In doing so, the New Zealand pairing also rocketed up the leader board from 6th to 2nd overall, 30.9 seconds behind the Frenchman.
By this time, having settled himself into the Hyundai's new rally weapon, Paddon's confidence was on the up and he showed just how much by scoring fastest time again on the final stage of the afternoon loop. This time, he beat the rally leader by 4 seconds, and topped Ostberg's effort by 6.7 seconds. Not too shabby considering the former's WRC Champion status and the latter's local knowledge and hugely greater experience with the Swedish conditions.
Hayden and John go into Saturday's leg holding just a tiny lead over the four drivers immediately behind him; Ostberg, Tanak, Sordo and Mikkelsen are all within 15.1 seconds of the Kiwis. Yet Paddon and co-driver Kennard have a real advantage as they tackle the second day. The weather forecast predicted an overnight snowfall of roughly 20cm, which would certainly make Ogier's job and that of the other front-runners more difficult as they clean the stages.
Paddon, on the other hand, should benefit from cleaner lines and as we saw on stages 7-9, the Kiwi was comfortable enough in the new car to make the most of the advantage offered. He took 18.8 seconds from Ogier in just three stages, 16.2 seconds from Ostberg on the same tests. It's certainly possible that Hayden could complete tomorrow's loop within striking distance of a podium top step.
He's been there before, of course, showing his class in Sardegna with a fine 2nd overall following an concerted battle with the World Champion and holding the rally lead for 15 special stages in the process. A momentary lapse and a spin eventually cost Paddon the lead, but he showed he has the guts as well as the talent to have earned that top step.
Without meaning to jinx the likeable Kiwi, maybe, just maybe, this will be his first WRC win. I'm so looking forward to Saturday's stages.
Enjoying their first outing in the Hyundai NGi20 WRC, the pair began their Swedish adventure with understandable caution given the low-speed incident that destroyed a wheel and any chance of doing well on the Monte Carlo Rally a couple of weeks ago.
Nevertheless, despite that setback and their unfamiliarity with the new car, the pairing set about getting to grips with the Scandanavian round, run in unusually warm and snow-deprived conditions. The lack of ice and snow on Friday's first three stages suited three-times world champ Sébastian Ogier well in his position as first on the road, the road surface degrading with each passing car, while Paddon, starting ninth, was forced to endure the slush from the eight previous drivers.
At the end of the morning loop then, Paddon found himself 45.7 seconds behind rally leader Ogier (also 21.5 seconds behind the "local" driver, second-placed Mikkelssen, and 9.4 seconds behind another "local", the fifth-placed Ostberg).
At this point, the fickle Scandanavian climate factored itself into the equation, and the afternoon loop was quite different. Snow had begun to fall and ambient temperatures dropped below zero, meaning that Ogier's road position advantage evaporated while Paddon's disadvantage did the same. Ogier was now sweeping the roads clear of snow, and each passing car contributed to further improving the grip for the following vehicles.
Paddon, and the driver immediately before him, Kris Meeke, saw benefits straight away and Meeke was fastest in the afternoon opener with Paddon only 5 seconds slower in second fastest. Meeke moved from 3rd into 2nd overall while Paddon climbed one place to 6th. Ogier, who admitted pushing hard, could do no better than 4th fastest although the Frenchman continued to hold the rally lead, 21 seconds in front of Kris.
SS8 saw Meeke's retirement caused by an impact with a hidden boulder, and Paddon took the stage win, 12.1 seconds faster than Ogier, 1.5 seconds quicker than Ostberg. In doing so, the New Zealand pairing also rocketed up the leader board from 6th to 2nd overall, 30.9 seconds behind the Frenchman.
By this time, having settled himself into the Hyundai's new rally weapon, Paddon's confidence was on the up and he showed just how much by scoring fastest time again on the final stage of the afternoon loop. This time, he beat the rally leader by 4 seconds, and topped Ostberg's effort by 6.7 seconds. Not too shabby considering the former's WRC Champion status and the latter's local knowledge and hugely greater experience with the Swedish conditions.
Hayden and John go into Saturday's leg holding just a tiny lead over the four drivers immediately behind him; Ostberg, Tanak, Sordo and Mikkelsen are all within 15.1 seconds of the Kiwis. Yet Paddon and co-driver Kennard have a real advantage as they tackle the second day. The weather forecast predicted an overnight snowfall of roughly 20cm, which would certainly make Ogier's job and that of the other front-runners more difficult as they clean the stages.
Paddon, on the other hand, should benefit from cleaner lines and as we saw on stages 7-9, the Kiwi was comfortable enough in the new car to make the most of the advantage offered. He took 18.8 seconds from Ogier in just three stages, 16.2 seconds from Ostberg on the same tests. It's certainly possible that Hayden could complete tomorrow's loop within striking distance of a podium top step.
He's been there before, of course, showing his class in Sardegna with a fine 2nd overall following an concerted battle with the World Champion and holding the rally lead for 15 special stages in the process. A momentary lapse and a spin eventually cost Paddon the lead, but he showed he has the guts as well as the talent to have earned that top step.
Without meaning to jinx the likeable Kiwi, maybe, just maybe, this will be his first WRC win. I'm so looking forward to Saturday's stages.
Sunday, January 24, 2016
WRC '16 - Did gambles pay off on the Monte Carlo?
If you read my previous post on the subject of the Monte, you'll know that it had a gambling metaphor, and deliberately so. The form guide I offered suggested that of the five names put forward, three of those would appear on the podium. A bit rash, you might think given the notoriety of the event's suseptibility to fickle climatic conditions.
As it happens, my punt paid off. No, not in the sense of financial windfalls that you might expect if I had the 'nads to put my money where my mouth is. More in the sense of "this is a very likely outcome because I am paying attention" instead.
Obviously there are lots of impossible-to-foresee random events that can influence the results of any given rally, so sticking a hand up and making predictions is a good way to get egg all over one's face. Still, there are clues as to how a rally will play out if you care to look and sometimes things even happen in line with what might actually be expected. Rarely, I admit, but...
However, the majority of people reading this blog would rather not work it out in advance and would prefer the outcome to be a surprise. And so they should. A surprise ending is almost always preferable to one which is predictable. So it's fortunate that very few of this blog's readers took my picks as anything but guesswork, promptly ignored them, or forgot that I'd ever made them. That's blogging.
To the three who messaged to point out that they were impressed that the form guide was so accurate, their initial reaction was ''well done, dude". But that was almost immediately countered by "Actually, I could have made those predictions". 20/20 hindsight? Perhaps, but it wasn't so much about which of the fifteen possibles would podium, as it was who would not. But having said that, any half-knowledgeable fan could figure it out if they have a mind to.
The thing is, most don't have a mind to. They prefer that surprise ending.
Betting against the odds...
There were other gambles being made on the Monte, by far the most influential being the choice of tyres. You could have Super Soft slicks, Soft slicks, Winter treads, and Winter treads with studs. The specific scenarios that would suit each tyre type are quite obvious, and I'm no tyre engineer so I'm going to leave that as is, other than to add that each has its strengths and weaknesses.
The thing about Rallye Monte-Carlo is it's curious ability to offer a mix of road conditions that make it literally impossible to take with you the "correct" tyres for any particular stage. A competitor can (and will) encounter ice, black ice, snow, slush, wet tarmac, dry tarmac and mud in a single stage. And unless you're Sébastien Ogier, your choosing the right tyres for the two or three stages that you're equipping for is next to impossible. You can only carry six with you, after all.
So, you look at your pace notes and check your meteorologist's predictions and stare at the ice crew's recent reading of the actual surface, then try to imagine what that stage will really be like when you arrive in it, most of the time after other competitors have slithered around it dragging snow and water and ice and mud across places where you didn't even have any concept of the road surface condition at all.
Then you most probably just copy the choice of a competitor who you think is "in the know" instead. See? It's a gamble. But sometimes gambles pay off.
Take Andreas Mikkelsen on stages 9 and 10 of the Monte. Instead of loading up with the combination chosen by his teammate and tyre-choice-voodoo-practitioner Seb Ogier, the Norwegian chose to run four studded tyres and two softs. The first stage was mostly devoid of ice or snow. So two of his tyres were inevitably studded, and as everyone knows, studded tryes don't like tarmac. Which in turn meant that he would bleed time to his competitors on that stage while shedding many of the precious studs that he gambled on benefitting from on the second of that pair of stages.
But that gamble also allowed for having four studded tyres available for the second of the two stages (SS10), though admittedly two of those tyres would be somewhat the worse for wear by then. On a stage which was predominantly ice and snow, they would afford Mikkelsen more grip and therefore better traction, braking and handling than would be available to any of the other drivers with their meagre two studded tyres.
And how did that work out for him?
Meh, as it happens. Despite Andreas's winning margin on the shortish 17.13km SS10 being a whopping 43.9 seconds, he had previously dropped 1:13.5 to the rally leader on the much longer 51.55km SS9. That's a net loss of 29.6 seconds vs Sébastien's effort. A brave throw of the dice it must be said, but given the extra length of the first stage where he would necessarily lose time to Ogier over each and every km, it does seem that Andreas hadn't thought that particular game of chance through as well as he might.
But credit for the innovation at least.
Sometimes backing the outsider is the smart move...
Citroen's unofficial entry featured lead driver Kris Meeke and WRC top tier newbie, Stepháne Lefebvre, with the "smart money" on speedster Meeke to podium. Unfortunately for the Ulsterman, his thrilling battle with the VW #1 ran its course prematurely courtesy of a rock which smashed the sumpguard of the DS3 WRC into the gearbox and causing Kris's retirement from the rally.
One of those random events I mentioned earlier.
But despite Lefebvre having an event punctuated by a crash, a moment or three and some spins, the young Frenchman took fifth overall at the finish, his best effort since his arrival in the WRC. In the atrocious slippery conditions, in just his third start on the Monte, Stepháne beat some more-fancied and more-experienced opposition. A little luck here and there of course, but also a well-judged drive for the most part.
Lefebvre himself didn't gamble to any great degree - just the same "wiggle the steering wheel and hope" approach that his fellow competitors indulged in at some point on virtually every stage - so for the real gamble here, we must turn to team boss Yves Matton. Sure, the Citroen boss already had his eyes on Lefebvre as a future member of his main team, and this year's semi-privateer status gave him an out if needed, but despite earlier statements that Stepháne was a bit undercooked for the big time, he put the youngster into the DS3 WRC on a hunch.
And that 5th overall placing means Matton's hunch has paid off handsomely.
Nobody following the Monte could doubt that this inexperienced young Frenchman has what it takes to be a future contender, and maybe not too far into the future either. Sure, his performances have shone on the seal thus far, but it'll be interesting to see how his gravel performances improve in parallel with the tarmac performances of the gravel specialist, Hayden Paddon.
Paddon was another gamble, Michel Nandan's in this case, but he too has shown that an outsider bet can pay big dividends. It's a fantastic thing that the bosses of big WRC teams are prepared to park the safe options and take a decent punt. They deserve the windfalls that may just head their way.
As it happens, my punt paid off. No, not in the sense of financial windfalls that you might expect if I had the 'nads to put my money where my mouth is. More in the sense of "this is a very likely outcome because I am paying attention" instead.
Obviously there are lots of impossible-to-foresee random events that can influence the results of any given rally, so sticking a hand up and making predictions is a good way to get egg all over one's face. Still, there are clues as to how a rally will play out if you care to look and sometimes things even happen in line with what might actually be expected. Rarely, I admit, but...
However, the majority of people reading this blog would rather not work it out in advance and would prefer the outcome to be a surprise. And so they should. A surprise ending is almost always preferable to one which is predictable. So it's fortunate that very few of this blog's readers took my picks as anything but guesswork, promptly ignored them, or forgot that I'd ever made them. That's blogging.
To the three who messaged to point out that they were impressed that the form guide was so accurate, their initial reaction was ''well done, dude". But that was almost immediately countered by "Actually, I could have made those predictions". 20/20 hindsight? Perhaps, but it wasn't so much about which of the fifteen possibles would podium, as it was who would not. But having said that, any half-knowledgeable fan could figure it out if they have a mind to.
The thing is, most don't have a mind to. They prefer that surprise ending.
Betting against the odds...
There were other gambles being made on the Monte, by far the most influential being the choice of tyres. You could have Super Soft slicks, Soft slicks, Winter treads, and Winter treads with studs. The specific scenarios that would suit each tyre type are quite obvious, and I'm no tyre engineer so I'm going to leave that as is, other than to add that each has its strengths and weaknesses.
The thing about Rallye Monte-Carlo is it's curious ability to offer a mix of road conditions that make it literally impossible to take with you the "correct" tyres for any particular stage. A competitor can (and will) encounter ice, black ice, snow, slush, wet tarmac, dry tarmac and mud in a single stage. And unless you're Sébastien Ogier, your choosing the right tyres for the two or three stages that you're equipping for is next to impossible. You can only carry six with you, after all.
So, you look at your pace notes and check your meteorologist's predictions and stare at the ice crew's recent reading of the actual surface, then try to imagine what that stage will really be like when you arrive in it, most of the time after other competitors have slithered around it dragging snow and water and ice and mud across places where you didn't even have any concept of the road surface condition at all.
Then you most probably just copy the choice of a competitor who you think is "in the know" instead. See? It's a gamble. But sometimes gambles pay off.
Take Andreas Mikkelsen on stages 9 and 10 of the Monte. Instead of loading up with the combination chosen by his teammate and tyre-choice-voodoo-practitioner Seb Ogier, the Norwegian chose to run four studded tyres and two softs. The first stage was mostly devoid of ice or snow. So two of his tyres were inevitably studded, and as everyone knows, studded tryes don't like tarmac. Which in turn meant that he would bleed time to his competitors on that stage while shedding many of the precious studs that he gambled on benefitting from on the second of that pair of stages.
But that gamble also allowed for having four studded tyres available for the second of the two stages (SS10), though admittedly two of those tyres would be somewhat the worse for wear by then. On a stage which was predominantly ice and snow, they would afford Mikkelsen more grip and therefore better traction, braking and handling than would be available to any of the other drivers with their meagre two studded tyres.
And how did that work out for him?
Meh, as it happens. Despite Andreas's winning margin on the shortish 17.13km SS10 being a whopping 43.9 seconds, he had previously dropped 1:13.5 to the rally leader on the much longer 51.55km SS9. That's a net loss of 29.6 seconds vs Sébastien's effort. A brave throw of the dice it must be said, but given the extra length of the first stage where he would necessarily lose time to Ogier over each and every km, it does seem that Andreas hadn't thought that particular game of chance through as well as he might.
But credit for the innovation at least.
Sometimes backing the outsider is the smart move...
Citroen's unofficial entry featured lead driver Kris Meeke and WRC top tier newbie, Stepháne Lefebvre, with the "smart money" on speedster Meeke to podium. Unfortunately for the Ulsterman, his thrilling battle with the VW #1 ran its course prematurely courtesy of a rock which smashed the sumpguard of the DS3 WRC into the gearbox and causing Kris's retirement from the rally.
One of those random events I mentioned earlier.
But despite Lefebvre having an event punctuated by a crash, a moment or three and some spins, the young Frenchman took fifth overall at the finish, his best effort since his arrival in the WRC. In the atrocious slippery conditions, in just his third start on the Monte, Stepháne beat some more-fancied and more-experienced opposition. A little luck here and there of course, but also a well-judged drive for the most part.
Lefebvre himself didn't gamble to any great degree - just the same "wiggle the steering wheel and hope" approach that his fellow competitors indulged in at some point on virtually every stage - so for the real gamble here, we must turn to team boss Yves Matton. Sure, the Citroen boss already had his eyes on Lefebvre as a future member of his main team, and this year's semi-privateer status gave him an out if needed, but despite earlier statements that Stepháne was a bit undercooked for the big time, he put the youngster into the DS3 WRC on a hunch.
And that 5th overall placing means Matton's hunch has paid off handsomely.
Nobody following the Monte could doubt that this inexperienced young Frenchman has what it takes to be a future contender, and maybe not too far into the future either. Sure, his performances have shone on the seal thus far, but it'll be interesting to see how his gravel performances improve in parallel with the tarmac performances of the gravel specialist, Hayden Paddon.
Paddon was another gamble, Michel Nandan's in this case, but he too has shown that an outsider bet can pay big dividends. It's a fantastic thing that the bosses of big WRC teams are prepared to park the safe options and take a decent punt. They deserve the windfalls that may just head their way.
Monday, January 18, 2016
WRC '16 - The Monte Carlo Form Guide
With the Monte just days from starting, thoughts turn to speculating on the probable victors in this most iconic WRC round. This year is a funny old season, with the likely antagonists coming from just two teams - current WRC champs VW and relative new boys Hyundai.
Sure, Citroen are fielding their ersatz semi-works entry featuring Kris Meeke and Stephane Lefebvre, part of a much-truncated programme of European-oriented rounds for 2016. And M-Sport has assembled an experience vs youth team starring Mads Ostberg, with newbie Eric Camilli co-starring in what is said to be a full 14 round effort. Although team boss Wilson has confessed to being in the dark over funding the China round, but an entry is an entry, so...
However, realistically only Meeke and Ostberg have a shot at the podium, and there are a couple of reasons why we should probably discount their chances. In Meeke's case, there are no team points to be had, so he'll be running the Monte for experience fearing no consequences for not finishing which in turn suggests he'll be keen on depressing the loud pedal frequently. That hints at some kind of "tinkle-bonk" moment(s) during the event and a lowly finishing spot. If the DS3 can still start on the final day, expect Kris to nab some Power Stage points though.
Mads's finishing spot will be determined by the misfortunes of others more than anything, his own performance being undermined to some extent by factors related to the changes at the end of 2015. For one, a new co-driver, Mikkelsen's previous passenger Ola Floene, means their pace notes together will be somewhat tentative early in the season - these partnerships take time to gel. Then there's the fact that it's a new team for both, complete with cultural differences and most importantly, the Fiesta RS WRC car, built with a significantly divergent philosophy from his DS3 of the previous season.
I deliberately dropped both Bouffier and Kubica from my pool of favourites, not because I don't rate them on the Monte Carlo; I do as it happens, but despite their proven pace on the event, their attraction to the scenery doesn't recommend them for inclusion in the "probable" category.
Paddon will be undertaking his first ever Monte Carlo round, and his total absence of experience basically removes the Kiwi from contention. In recent interviews, Hayden has made the point that they will use the rally to gain experience for the future, a wise course of action given the Monte's reputation as the most challenging WRC round. Still, it'll be interesting to see how he goes.
So the remainder, in the view of this blogger at least, are most likely to podium in Monte. They are...
Sébastien Ogier:
6 Montes
3x 1st placings
1x 2nd placing
1x crash
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 4
Average points per Monte - 15.5
Driver errors - 1
Dani Sordo:
8x Montes
2x 2nd placings
1x 3rd placing
1x 6th placing
1x 8th placing
1x 11th placing
1x 15th placing
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 3
Average points per Monte - 7.4
Driver errors - 0
Andreas Mikkelsen:
3x Montes
1x 3rd placing
1x 7th placing
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 1
Average points per Monte - 7.0
Driver errors - 0
Jari-Matti Latvala:
8 Montes
1x 2nd placing
1x 5th placing
1x 12th placing
1x 41st placing
4x crashes
Total Monte podiums - 1
Average points per Monte - 3.5
Driver errors - 4
Thierry Neuville:
5x Montes
1x 5th placing
4x crashes
Total Monte podiums - 0
Average points per Monte - 2.0
Driver errors - 4
There you have it folks. The form book has spoken and if you were a betting person, you'd have to consider those top three as likely candidates for the top three steps of the podium in Monte Carlo. Of course, nature and human nature being the idiosyncratic things they are, who knows how it will finish (quietly hoping here that Paddon will pull out another blinder on the rally against all the odds) but there are some pretty strong clues in the foregoing data. We shall see...
Sure, Citroen are fielding their ersatz semi-works entry featuring Kris Meeke and Stephane Lefebvre, part of a much-truncated programme of European-oriented rounds for 2016. And M-Sport has assembled an experience vs youth team starring Mads Ostberg, with newbie Eric Camilli co-starring in what is said to be a full 14 round effort. Although team boss Wilson has confessed to being in the dark over funding the China round, but an entry is an entry, so...
However, realistically only Meeke and Ostberg have a shot at the podium, and there are a couple of reasons why we should probably discount their chances. In Meeke's case, there are no team points to be had, so he'll be running the Monte for experience fearing no consequences for not finishing which in turn suggests he'll be keen on depressing the loud pedal frequently. That hints at some kind of "tinkle-bonk" moment(s) during the event and a lowly finishing spot. If the DS3 can still start on the final day, expect Kris to nab some Power Stage points though.
Mads's finishing spot will be determined by the misfortunes of others more than anything, his own performance being undermined to some extent by factors related to the changes at the end of 2015. For one, a new co-driver, Mikkelsen's previous passenger Ola Floene, means their pace notes together will be somewhat tentative early in the season - these partnerships take time to gel. Then there's the fact that it's a new team for both, complete with cultural differences and most importantly, the Fiesta RS WRC car, built with a significantly divergent philosophy from his DS3 of the previous season.
I deliberately dropped both Bouffier and Kubica from my pool of favourites, not because I don't rate them on the Monte Carlo; I do as it happens, but despite their proven pace on the event, their attraction to the scenery doesn't recommend them for inclusion in the "probable" category.
Paddon will be undertaking his first ever Monte Carlo round, and his total absence of experience basically removes the Kiwi from contention. In recent interviews, Hayden has made the point that they will use the rally to gain experience for the future, a wise course of action given the Monte's reputation as the most challenging WRC round. Still, it'll be interesting to see how he goes.
So the remainder, in the view of this blogger at least, are most likely to podium in Monte. They are...
Sébastien Ogier:
6 Montes
3x 1st placings
1x 2nd placing
1x crash
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 4
Average points per Monte - 15.5
Driver errors - 1
Dani Sordo:
8x Montes
2x 2nd placings
1x 3rd placing
1x 6th placing
1x 8th placing
1x 11th placing
1x 15th placing
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 3
Average points per Monte - 7.4
Driver errors - 0
Andreas Mikkelsen:
3x Montes
1x 3rd placing
1x 7th placing
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 1
Average points per Monte - 7.0
Driver errors - 0
Jari-Matti Latvala:
8 Montes
1x 2nd placing
1x 5th placing
1x 12th placing
1x 41st placing
4x crashes
Total Monte podiums - 1
Average points per Monte - 3.5
Driver errors - 4
Thierry Neuville:
5x Montes
1x 5th placing
4x crashes
Total Monte podiums - 0
Average points per Monte - 2.0
Driver errors - 4
There you have it folks. The form book has spoken and if you were a betting person, you'd have to consider those top three as likely candidates for the top three steps of the podium in Monte Carlo. Of course, nature and human nature being the idiosyncratic things they are, who knows how it will finish (quietly hoping here that Paddon will pull out another blinder on the rally against all the odds) but there are some pretty strong clues in the foregoing data. We shall see...
Monday, September 14, 2015
WRC '15 - Coffs and snivels?
As a dyed-in-the-wool Kiwi, sport, you can probably imagine how much it hurts to say this, but s'truth mate, the Aussies put on a hell of a show for their Coates Hire Rally of Australia this last weekend.
There was absolutely somethin' for everyone during three days of the closest-fought loose surface motorsport we've seen all bloody season. The drama was there even before shakedown, and it continued right up to the last moments of the power stage that saw Sébastien Ogier and Julien Ingrassia take their third WRC championship, and their Volkswagen team clinch the constructor's championship for the third year on the trot. Fair dinkum, Blue.
The top five drivers finished inside a one minute spread, something that hasn't happened since Dame Edna drove a Capri convertible. And it's the kind of result that suggests that despite the moans and bleats about road position, look-alike machinery and long-haul events, the formula bloody well works!
It was the best rally of the season to these eyes, despite any bias over the preferred finishing order.
So what made it the Sunday treat that it turned out to be? So many things that just didn't go according to the script. And it started early.
On recce day #1, Mads and Jonas took on a logging truck and lost. The Norwegian crew didn't make it to Shakedown and Citroen's apprentice team, "Stephane squared", got bumped into starting as #2 crew for the double chevron marque. Bet they didn't see that coming. (See what I did there? Huh, huh?... oh please yourselves).
Then, when the rally proper kicked off, Dani Sordo and Marc Marti, demoted to the second tier Motorsport N team usually inhabited by Hayden Paddon and John Kennard, took full advantage of their road position and won all of the first three stages. 'Oath, mate. And the Spanish-speaking fans worldwide were over the flamin' moon.
It wasn't to last, but for a glittering moment, Hyundai again led a WRC round. But not all the fans were delighted. Those that had trekked from the Eastern side of the ditch had their hearts set on another Hyundai driver leading the event - Hayden Paddon. Instead, Northern Irishman Kris Meeke took the leader's mantle from Sordo and the Citroen fans went wild.
Kris held the top position until the penultimate stage of the day, but it was SS8 where the tide turned and the snivels began. You see, the organisers had given in to the demands of the promoter to include a night stage for added, um - "gimmickry" springs to mind - although they might prefer "interest". Whichever, only the first two or three cars completed the stage without being hampered by hanging dust. So it was here that Citroen's Meeke lost time to his rivals and he was not a happy lad.
Of course, he wasn't alone in his moan about the dark and the dust - also fellow drivers Neuville and Tanak, to mention a couple, had harsh words for the organisers' choice of stage time, especially since there had been requests to drop that night stage before the event began. It wasn't rocket surgery that it was going to be an issue for both spectacle and safety, the drivers reasoned. So at the finish of SS8, Latvala led Meeke by two seconds while Ogier took fastest time.
Day two flickered into life with a nice breeze and brilliant sunshine, just the right formula for a Kiwi on a mission. Paddon took the win on the first two stages of the day, delighting the legions of Kiwi followers who probably felt they were robbed the previous day. Although the Hyundai crew showed they were serious, the times weren't quite enough to improve their fifth place. But they opened the gap to Tanak who was lurking like a goanna on steroids one place behind.
Latvala struggled with a 6th place on SS9 and handed the lead back to Meeke, the spot the Northern Irishman kept until SS11, losing it to the resurgent Ogier on SS12. Despite Meeke's best efforts, his less advantageous road position showed in his 4th best time and he slipped to third overall.
Sunday saw Ogier in awesome form. He won every one of the five stages, his advantage increasing from 5.1 seconds on SS13 to 12.3 seconds on the power stage. Quite an extraordinary display of driving, and the best possible way to win the rally, the 2015 championship and the constructors' championship. A privilege to watch. And a credit to the Rally Australia organisers that they broadcast Wedding Bells live on both runs through the stage.
So the event concluded, with emotions of joy, contentment, relief and disappointment depending on who you were. Naturally, SebO and his co-driver were in the first category but what of the others?
Jari-Matti Latvala seemed to vacillate between contentment and disappointment, understandably, with another great drive mostly but beaten by his teammate Ogier. He must be wondering how to catch a break, but the Finn will continue to fight for the win until the championship is over.
Kris Meeke's only mistake on this rally was his choice of tyres on day one and that was really more of a calculated risk, so he was chuffed to podium and relieved to get through the weekend without the issues of recent rallies. A great drive, but the sniveling after the night stage didn't endear him to fans, organisers or the FIA reps present.
Andreas Mikkelsen took it to his teammates and rivals with a fine performance, and it was only the uncharacteristic late check in to service and its 10 second penalty that stopped his charge for the third podium spot. Yet it's tempting to think that despite his pace, Andreas was in the disappointed category. It can't be long before he gets a win though.
Hayden Paddon finished fifth, fastest Hyundai by a long shot. Paddon admitted that his Friday morning all-softs tyre choice was the wrong one, suggesting that two hards would have made a positive difference. His charge for a podium was also hampered by differential issues affecting the handling of the #8 i20, problems that were corrected in service. The remainder of the rally, the Kiwi's times were competitive with stage wins on SS9 and SS10, and he finished less than a minute from Ogier's winning time after 300+ km of competitive stages. No ambiguity here - contentment from the Kiwi.
Ott Tanak struggled to get to grips with the slippery road surfaces of Coffs in this, his first shot at the round in a full-spec WRC car. Normally trading times with Paddon on the loose, Ott was noticeably off the pace for most of the event, and his own differential problems didn't help. SS4 and SS8 saw the Estonian drop to 8th overall. However, some spirited driving on SS9 got him third fastest time, and a second fastest on SS10, and he moved up to 6th, the position he held until the finish and some 43 seconds behind Paddon. A mixture of disappointment and contentment, I'd say.
Thierry Neuville commented at the end of the power stage that he was happy with his performance which at first glance might sound strange coming from the number one Hyundai driver who was beaten by the runt of the Hyundai litter by a significant 73 seconds. But he too had handling issues during the weekend and a worse road position than Paddon for the first two days, so perhaps in that light, it wasn't such a bad result. So maybe contentment works for Thierry. Not so sure how it feels for Michel though...
Dani Sordo kicked arse on day #1, with three stage wins on the trot. I can say with certainty that it was joy that he was feeling as he headed into SS4. And why not? Spectacular performance on his first ever run at Coffs. But reality began to bite from SS9 on, with rear brakes deserting the Spaniard and his golden run fading quickly away. Finally on SS12, his team leader Neuville passed him in the overall stakes and with team orders in play, Sordo was destined to remain where he was until the finish. From joy, then, it was a descent into disappointment. This experience will have given him confidence for next year though and he'll be a force.
Elvyn Evans is another whose emotions about Rally Australia will be unambiguous - disappointment all the way. The Welshman simply couldn't get to grips with the surfaces in either sense of the word. A spin and the resulting puncture effectively removed him from competition but he was upfront about his lack of rhythm even before that incident. Another event in what has been a sequence of disappointing results that Evans will want to forget, but he must relive to establish what went wrong and find a fix. M-Sport's boss was clearly unhappy with his protege and at times, Elvyn looked and sounded to be on the verge of tears. Not so much disappointed then, as devastated?
Stephane Lefebvre always had a big task ahead of him on this event; practically without preparation, borrowed car, helmets and overalls, partial pacenotes and all. And a head-on collision during recce. An inauspicious beginning to the youngster's gravel rally career. A consistent run of 8th, 9th and 10th place times ended with a broken suspension on SS8, effectively dropping the Frenchman out of the points. Happily for Citroen though, his 13th overall put him in 10th manufacturer placing so he gave his team a much-needed single point which kept the deficit to Hyundai as it was pre-rally. Contented.
So there it was in Oz. A really exciting round despite the sniveling from some and arguably the most dramatic of the season. Certainly the closest finish in decades. Now if the other teams can get their machines and crews a bit closer in performance to the all-conquering VW Polo WRC machines, it can only get better. Looking forward to it.
There was absolutely somethin' for everyone during three days of the closest-fought loose surface motorsport we've seen all bloody season. The drama was there even before shakedown, and it continued right up to the last moments of the power stage that saw Sébastien Ogier and Julien Ingrassia take their third WRC championship, and their Volkswagen team clinch the constructor's championship for the third year on the trot. Fair dinkum, Blue.
The top five drivers finished inside a one minute spread, something that hasn't happened since Dame Edna drove a Capri convertible. And it's the kind of result that suggests that despite the moans and bleats about road position, look-alike machinery and long-haul events, the formula bloody well works!
It was the best rally of the season to these eyes, despite any bias over the preferred finishing order.
So what made it the Sunday treat that it turned out to be? So many things that just didn't go according to the script. And it started early.
On recce day #1, Mads and Jonas took on a logging truck and lost. The Norwegian crew didn't make it to Shakedown and Citroen's apprentice team, "Stephane squared", got bumped into starting as #2 crew for the double chevron marque. Bet they didn't see that coming. (See what I did there? Huh, huh?... oh please yourselves).
Then, when the rally proper kicked off, Dani Sordo and Marc Marti, demoted to the second tier Motorsport N team usually inhabited by Hayden Paddon and John Kennard, took full advantage of their road position and won all of the first three stages. 'Oath, mate. And the Spanish-speaking fans worldwide were over the flamin' moon.
It wasn't to last, but for a glittering moment, Hyundai again led a WRC round. But not all the fans were delighted. Those that had trekked from the Eastern side of the ditch had their hearts set on another Hyundai driver leading the event - Hayden Paddon. Instead, Northern Irishman Kris Meeke took the leader's mantle from Sordo and the Citroen fans went wild.
Kris held the top position until the penultimate stage of the day, but it was SS8 where the tide turned and the snivels began. You see, the organisers had given in to the demands of the promoter to include a night stage for added, um - "gimmickry" springs to mind - although they might prefer "interest". Whichever, only the first two or three cars completed the stage without being hampered by hanging dust. So it was here that Citroen's Meeke lost time to his rivals and he was not a happy lad.
Of course, he wasn't alone in his moan about the dark and the dust - also fellow drivers Neuville and Tanak, to mention a couple, had harsh words for the organisers' choice of stage time, especially since there had been requests to drop that night stage before the event began. It wasn't rocket surgery that it was going to be an issue for both spectacle and safety, the drivers reasoned. So at the finish of SS8, Latvala led Meeke by two seconds while Ogier took fastest time.
Day two flickered into life with a nice breeze and brilliant sunshine, just the right formula for a Kiwi on a mission. Paddon took the win on the first two stages of the day, delighting the legions of Kiwi followers who probably felt they were robbed the previous day. Although the Hyundai crew showed they were serious, the times weren't quite enough to improve their fifth place. But they opened the gap to Tanak who was lurking like a goanna on steroids one place behind.
Latvala struggled with a 6th place on SS9 and handed the lead back to Meeke, the spot the Northern Irishman kept until SS11, losing it to the resurgent Ogier on SS12. Despite Meeke's best efforts, his less advantageous road position showed in his 4th best time and he slipped to third overall.
Sunday saw Ogier in awesome form. He won every one of the five stages, his advantage increasing from 5.1 seconds on SS13 to 12.3 seconds on the power stage. Quite an extraordinary display of driving, and the best possible way to win the rally, the 2015 championship and the constructors' championship. A privilege to watch. And a credit to the Rally Australia organisers that they broadcast Wedding Bells live on both runs through the stage.
So the event concluded, with emotions of joy, contentment, relief and disappointment depending on who you were. Naturally, SebO and his co-driver were in the first category but what of the others?
Jari-Matti Latvala seemed to vacillate between contentment and disappointment, understandably, with another great drive mostly but beaten by his teammate Ogier. He must be wondering how to catch a break, but the Finn will continue to fight for the win until the championship is over.
Kris Meeke's only mistake on this rally was his choice of tyres on day one and that was really more of a calculated risk, so he was chuffed to podium and relieved to get through the weekend without the issues of recent rallies. A great drive, but the sniveling after the night stage didn't endear him to fans, organisers or the FIA reps present.
Andreas Mikkelsen took it to his teammates and rivals with a fine performance, and it was only the uncharacteristic late check in to service and its 10 second penalty that stopped his charge for the third podium spot. Yet it's tempting to think that despite his pace, Andreas was in the disappointed category. It can't be long before he gets a win though.
Hayden Paddon finished fifth, fastest Hyundai by a long shot. Paddon admitted that his Friday morning all-softs tyre choice was the wrong one, suggesting that two hards would have made a positive difference. His charge for a podium was also hampered by differential issues affecting the handling of the #8 i20, problems that were corrected in service. The remainder of the rally, the Kiwi's times were competitive with stage wins on SS9 and SS10, and he finished less than a minute from Ogier's winning time after 300+ km of competitive stages. No ambiguity here - contentment from the Kiwi.
Ott Tanak struggled to get to grips with the slippery road surfaces of Coffs in this, his first shot at the round in a full-spec WRC car. Normally trading times with Paddon on the loose, Ott was noticeably off the pace for most of the event, and his own differential problems didn't help. SS4 and SS8 saw the Estonian drop to 8th overall. However, some spirited driving on SS9 got him third fastest time, and a second fastest on SS10, and he moved up to 6th, the position he held until the finish and some 43 seconds behind Paddon. A mixture of disappointment and contentment, I'd say.
Thierry Neuville commented at the end of the power stage that he was happy with his performance which at first glance might sound strange coming from the number one Hyundai driver who was beaten by the runt of the Hyundai litter by a significant 73 seconds. But he too had handling issues during the weekend and a worse road position than Paddon for the first two days, so perhaps in that light, it wasn't such a bad result. So maybe contentment works for Thierry. Not so sure how it feels for Michel though...
Dani Sordo kicked arse on day #1, with three stage wins on the trot. I can say with certainty that it was joy that he was feeling as he headed into SS4. And why not? Spectacular performance on his first ever run at Coffs. But reality began to bite from SS9 on, with rear brakes deserting the Spaniard and his golden run fading quickly away. Finally on SS12, his team leader Neuville passed him in the overall stakes and with team orders in play, Sordo was destined to remain where he was until the finish. From joy, then, it was a descent into disappointment. This experience will have given him confidence for next year though and he'll be a force.
Elvyn Evans is another whose emotions about Rally Australia will be unambiguous - disappointment all the way. The Welshman simply couldn't get to grips with the surfaces in either sense of the word. A spin and the resulting puncture effectively removed him from competition but he was upfront about his lack of rhythm even before that incident. Another event in what has been a sequence of disappointing results that Evans will want to forget, but he must relive to establish what went wrong and find a fix. M-Sport's boss was clearly unhappy with his protege and at times, Elvyn looked and sounded to be on the verge of tears. Not so much disappointed then, as devastated?
Stephane Lefebvre always had a big task ahead of him on this event; practically without preparation, borrowed car, helmets and overalls, partial pacenotes and all. And a head-on collision during recce. An inauspicious beginning to the youngster's gravel rally career. A consistent run of 8th, 9th and 10th place times ended with a broken suspension on SS8, effectively dropping the Frenchman out of the points. Happily for Citroen though, his 13th overall put him in 10th manufacturer placing so he gave his team a much-needed single point which kept the deficit to Hyundai as it was pre-rally. Contented.
So there it was in Oz. A really exciting round despite the sniveling from some and arguably the most dramatic of the season. Certainly the closest finish in decades. Now if the other teams can get their machines and crews a bit closer in performance to the all-conquering VW Polo WRC machines, it can only get better. Looking forward to it.
Sunday, June 29, 2014
WRC '14 - Echoes from Poland
WRC Poland is done and dusted. Ogier won. Mikkelsen was runner up. And Neuville filled the final podium spot. You could likely have predicted that before the event began, and actually, it's fair to say that many did. But it doesn't mean the event was boring - far from it. It simply recognises that VW still retains the supremacy over its competitors currently.
Despite Ogier's healthy victory margin, it might have ended quite differently had his 'moment' early on SS12 not had the sprinkling of luck that it did. “I had a scare in the first sixth-gear corner,” Ogier reported at stage end.
A few centimetres of car placement left or right would have seen the reigning champ doing serious harm to both his car and his chances. Other competitors had similar moments during the event but their luck was of an entirely different stripe. And they paid a price for their moment that Seb did not.
There's always a tendency to ascribe good luck to some superior driving ability, the old "The harder I practice, the luckier I get" school of thought, but clearly sometimes the margins of disaster-to-happy-outcome are so fine as to be humanly impossible to negotiate. And so it was in Poland.
What isn't obvious from those overall placings is how very possible a different result could have been, and how the VW hegemony is not as strong as it was.
So the landscape of the championship has shifted almost imperceptibly away from VW and it's ace Ogier, towards the likes of Mikkelsen, Latvala, Neuville, Meeke, Hirvonen and Hanninen. And while they may not have been immediately apparent in Poland, there are subtle signs. Finland is likely to be the first real evidence that the sea-change is underway. I predict that the winner in Finland will be neither Ogier nor VW. The WRC is getting very interesting.
On the subject of landscape, Poland showed up a flaw in the championship that may have consequences beyond the event itself. With the Polish stages, the event included Lithuanian roads. There's no official explanation for why, and it could be that Poland simply didn't have enough stage miles available, and the excursion across the border made the event physically possible. But that seems highly unlikely and the inclusion of Lithuanian roads was probably a commercial decision.
Whichever, it transpires that it was a terrible error for the rally. Even the first pass of the cars through the first stage uncovered a serious problem with the construction of the roads, the surface degrading unacceptably quickly to the point that by the sixth or seventh car through any section, the ruts exposed made tramlining the only option. Not a terrific way to showcase the WRC as a motorsport spectacle.
The same issue arose on the second Lithuanian stage, making passage through the test an exercise in frustration for the drivers - especially after the first half dozen cars had passed. The event organisers had no option other than to accept the gravity of the situation and they cancelled the repeat running of both tests.
A serious amount of time and road miles for not much benefit to the teams or the spectators.
Remember that this was not the result of force majeure - it was the conscious decision by the organisers to include what must have been clearly inappropriate roads on their event. Not a WRC round promoter's finest hour.
It seems that decisions to include 'new' events in the calendar are not attracting the scrutiny that they should (the first WRC round in Poland since 2009 and mostly new roads). If such a situation arose in, for example, New Zealand, you can bet that the screams from various motorsport representatives in European capitals to exclude the event in future would be heard loud and long - probably for years.
On the good side of the ledger, the Polish stages were seen by the drivers and teams (and perhaps more importantly, the many thousands of spectators and fans) as demanding and exciting. That bodes well for the round remaining in the championship for the foreseeable future. Just keep it all in Poland thanks.
Despite Ogier's healthy victory margin, it might have ended quite differently had his 'moment' early on SS12 not had the sprinkling of luck that it did. “I had a scare in the first sixth-gear corner,” Ogier reported at stage end.
A few centimetres of car placement left or right would have seen the reigning champ doing serious harm to both his car and his chances. Other competitors had similar moments during the event but their luck was of an entirely different stripe. And they paid a price for their moment that Seb did not.
There's always a tendency to ascribe good luck to some superior driving ability, the old "The harder I practice, the luckier I get" school of thought, but clearly sometimes the margins of disaster-to-happy-outcome are so fine as to be humanly impossible to negotiate. And so it was in Poland.
What isn't obvious from those overall placings is how very possible a different result could have been, and how the VW hegemony is not as strong as it was.
So the landscape of the championship has shifted almost imperceptibly away from VW and it's ace Ogier, towards the likes of Mikkelsen, Latvala, Neuville, Meeke, Hirvonen and Hanninen. And while they may not have been immediately apparent in Poland, there are subtle signs. Finland is likely to be the first real evidence that the sea-change is underway. I predict that the winner in Finland will be neither Ogier nor VW. The WRC is getting very interesting.
On the subject of landscape, Poland showed up a flaw in the championship that may have consequences beyond the event itself. With the Polish stages, the event included Lithuanian roads. There's no official explanation for why, and it could be that Poland simply didn't have enough stage miles available, and the excursion across the border made the event physically possible. But that seems highly unlikely and the inclusion of Lithuanian roads was probably a commercial decision.
Whichever, it transpires that it was a terrible error for the rally. Even the first pass of the cars through the first stage uncovered a serious problem with the construction of the roads, the surface degrading unacceptably quickly to the point that by the sixth or seventh car through any section, the ruts exposed made tramlining the only option. Not a terrific way to showcase the WRC as a motorsport spectacle.
The same issue arose on the second Lithuanian stage, making passage through the test an exercise in frustration for the drivers - especially after the first half dozen cars had passed. The event organisers had no option other than to accept the gravity of the situation and they cancelled the repeat running of both tests.
A serious amount of time and road miles for not much benefit to the teams or the spectators.
Remember that this was not the result of force majeure - it was the conscious decision by the organisers to include what must have been clearly inappropriate roads on their event. Not a WRC round promoter's finest hour.
It seems that decisions to include 'new' events in the calendar are not attracting the scrutiny that they should (the first WRC round in Poland since 2009 and mostly new roads). If such a situation arose in, for example, New Zealand, you can bet that the screams from various motorsport representatives in European capitals to exclude the event in future would be heard loud and long - probably for years.
On the good side of the ledger, the Polish stages were seen by the drivers and teams (and perhaps more importantly, the many thousands of spectators and fans) as demanding and exciting. That bodes well for the round remaining in the championship for the foreseeable future. Just keep it all in Poland thanks.
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