With the Monte just days from starting, thoughts turn to speculating on the probable victors in this most iconic WRC round. This year is a funny old season, with the likely antagonists coming from just two teams - current WRC champs VW and relative new boys Hyundai.
Sure, Citroen are fielding their ersatz semi-works entry featuring Kris Meeke and Stephane Lefebvre, part of a much-truncated programme of European-oriented rounds for 2016. And M-Sport has assembled an experience vs youth team starring Mads Ostberg, with newbie Eric Camilli co-starring in what is said to be a full 14 round effort. Although team boss Wilson has confessed to being in the dark over funding the China round, but an entry is an entry, so...
However, realistically only Meeke and Ostberg have a shot at the podium, and there are a couple of reasons why we should probably discount their chances. In Meeke's case, there are no team points to be had, so he'll be running the Monte for experience fearing no consequences for not finishing which in turn suggests he'll be keen on depressing the loud pedal frequently. That hints at some kind of "tinkle-bonk" moment(s) during the event and a lowly finishing spot. If the DS3 can still start on the final day, expect Kris to nab some Power Stage points though.
Mads's finishing spot will be determined by the misfortunes of others more than anything, his own performance being undermined to some extent by factors related to the changes at the end of 2015. For one, a new co-driver, Mikkelsen's previous passenger Ola Floene, means their pace notes together will be somewhat tentative early in the season - these partnerships take time to gel. Then there's the fact that it's a new team for both, complete with cultural differences and most importantly, the Fiesta RS WRC car, built with a significantly divergent philosophy from his DS3 of the previous season.
I deliberately dropped both Bouffier and Kubica from my pool of
favourites, not because I don't rate them on the Monte Carlo; I do as it
happens, but despite their proven pace on the event, their attraction
to the scenery doesn't recommend them for inclusion in the "probable"
category.
Paddon will be undertaking his first ever Monte Carlo round, and his total absence of experience basically removes the Kiwi from contention. In recent interviews, Hayden has made the point that they will use the rally to gain experience for the future, a wise course of action given the Monte's reputation as the most challenging WRC round. Still, it'll be interesting to see how he goes.
So the remainder, in the view of this blogger at least, are most likely to podium in Monte. They are...
Sébastien Ogier:
6 Montes
3x 1st placings
1x 2nd placing
1x crash
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 4
Average points per Monte - 15.5
Driver errors - 1
Dani Sordo:
8x Montes
2x 2nd placings
1x 3rd placing
1x 6th placing
1x 8th placing
1x 11th placing
1x 15th placing
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 3
Average points per Monte - 7.4
Driver errors - 0
Andreas Mikkelsen:
3x Montes
1x 3rd placing
1x 7th placing
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 1
Average points per Monte - 7.0
Driver errors - 0
Jari-Matti Latvala:
8 Montes
1x 2nd placing
1x 5th placing
1x 12th placing
1x 41st placing
4x crashes
Total Monte podiums - 1
Average points per Monte - 3.5
Driver errors - 4
Thierry Neuville:
5x Montes
1x 5th placing
4x crashes
Total Monte podiums - 0
Average points per Monte - 2.0
Driver errors - 4
There you have it folks. The form book has spoken and if you were a betting person, you'd have to consider those top three as likely candidates for the top three steps of the podium in Monte Carlo. Of course, nature and human nature being the idiosyncratic things they are, who knows how it will finish (quietly hoping here that Paddon will pull out another blinder on the rally against all the odds) but there are some pretty strong clues in the foregoing data. We shall see...
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