At least we hope not. The Guanajuato-based event in 2015 was, to be blunt, utter carnage. The list of those who crashed out on the first full day makes for depressing reading:
1: Ott Tanak
2; Hayden Paddon
3: Robert Kubica
4: Kris Meeke
5: Lorenzo Bertelli
6: Thierry Neuville
7: Benito Guerra
Way to hand Sébastian Ogier the rally on un plato, amigos. Where the World Champ should have been doing some heavy-duty road-sweeping on the morning of the second full day, instead he left that chore up to the miscreants comprising the start list above. The Frenchman thus benefitted big time from his 8th position through the stages, and despite his professed belief before the rally that he had absolutely no chance of winning in Mexico, he romped home. If you're interested in my analysis of last year's Rally Mexico, click here.
This year though, Hyundai have come to la fiesta dressed as if they mean to get a decent result. In the main team, newly-invigorated Thierry Neuville and the ever-reliable Dani Sordo will be ably supported by the sensational Hayden Paddon with his B team entry, all three drivers steering the evolution NGi20 model cars from the Korean constructor. Already, the greater performance of the new car is evident and barring mechanical issues, they should all apply some badly-needed pressure to the Volkswagen Polo R boys.
Kris Meeke, in his "gap year" guise, would have had no point-scoring pressure and thus would have been able to push right from the start, to go head-to-head with VW's Ogier in the semi-works Citroen DS3 WRC. This car is more or less in identical spec to last year's Mexican entrant, so Kris would tell you that the German team would have the advantage in hardware, but he'd also admit that his road position would cancel that out, and he'd be in no doubt that he was in with at least a podium shot - maybe the win. But of course, he's not entered, so that's a battle we'll have to watch on another day.
Mads finished runner-up last year, through profiting greatly from the mistakes of others it must be said, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he can equal the feat it he stays out of trouble again this year, as M-Sport's lead driver. In fact if things go well for him, you can't with hand on heart exclude the Norwegian from the top podium step. While questions may be raised about his outright speed versus SebO and Jari-Matti, Mads's consistency credentials are undoubted.
Having tasted the reservoir water on the previous Rally Mexico, Ott Tanak will be reluctant to repeat the experience, so it would be absolutely reasonable to expect a highly-focused performance from DMACK's new signing. He'll be running the same spec car as M-Sport's Ostberg and Camilli, so his speed on this event will likely be in the same ballpark as his Michelin-shod competitors.
But here's a wee wrinkle that might put el gato among the pigeons - the road order this year has its share of jokers. See below...
1: Ogier
2: Mikkelsen
3: Ostberg:
4: Paddon
5: Sordo
6: Tanak
7: Neuville
8: Latvala
9: Camilli
10: Prokop
11: Bertelli
Both Neuville and Latvala have a significant theoretical road position advantage over the first three on the road, perceived wisdom suggesting that the lower-ordered pair may threaten Ogier for victory in the event - we shall see it that turns out to be the case.
Despite all that, Sébastian Ogier is still odds-on favourite to take maximum points on the stages of Guanajuato, his blend of driving skill, racecraft and luck making his defeat improbable despite his road-sweeping duties. But a win isn't a given, regardless of what the commentators, fans and bloggers may believe, and Mexico might, just might, give us a result that turns this championship on its head.
And no matter who you support, that wouldn't be a bad thing at all.
Showing posts with label evolution. Show all posts
Showing posts with label evolution. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Monday, October 12, 2015
WRC '15 - Thierry Neuville; Crisis of confidence
The announcement from Hyundai Motorsport that the season's final round will see Thierry Neuville being dropped from the #1 team into Paddon's usual slot in team #2 and in turn Paddon moving to replace the Belgian in the manufacturer points-scoring squad, has set tongues awagging.
It'll be the third such promotion for Paddon. He took over Sordo's i20 in Sweden while the Spaniard was out with injury, replaced Dani on the #1 team in Australia and now is certain to replace Thierry on RallyGB. In the Kiwi's defence, these moves are tactical decisions by the team, not some kind of palace coup by an ambitious pretender to the throne.
With the race for second in the manufacturers' standings so close - Hyundai trailing Citroen by just a single point after Corsica - the Korean team is gambling on Paddon's confidence and Sordo's consistent pace to tilt the balance back in their favour. Given the disappointing results Neuville has turned in over recent rallies, this tactical move shoudn't have been a surprise to anyone.
But it was. Regardless of the run of poor form by their lead driver, he is the nominated team #1, acknowledged by all the team bosses in the championship as a future champion, and openly discussed as a potential member of competitor teams. These guys know of what they speak, so I'm not inclined to disagree with their evaluations - Neuville is a valuable asset.
It's not only the teams who are scratching their heads over Thierry's performance woes this season, the media and blogosphere also offering their take on how and why the Belgian's 2015 has become the "annus horriblis" that it has, and quite a few have been keen to point out that he still has a 24 point lead in the drivers' championship over Sordo and 20 points over Paddon (although that's a little misleading since Sordo and Paddon have each started one round fewer than their team leader).
Since his third place finish in Sardinia, Neuville's results record has made for some dismal reading:
Poland - 6th
Finland - 4th
Germany - 5th
Australia - 7th
Corsica - 23rd
A glance over the Hyundai drivers' performances for the season to date show that Dani has been highest-placed i20 WRC driver four times, Hayden also four times and Thierry only three times. Even the Belgian's most ardent fans would admit that's not good enough for a driver of his potential and the salary he commands. He's contracted to Hyundai for 2016, so in theory at least, he will remain in the Korean squad, but the devil is in the details and who knows what clauses might invalidate that agreement.
Those wagging tongues mentioned earlier have suggested that Citroen has an interest in Neuville joining the French team in 2016, but the only realistic way that might happen would be if all parties were to sign on to that arrangement. But then the question would arise as to who would replace the Belgian for next season? Despite Paddon's stellar improvements this year, he wouldn't consider himself a candidate for lead driver in 2016. Sordo might be interested in the role, but is his pace on gravel sufficient to convince the team management?
Despite Hyundai's reluctance to officially announce their team line-up for the new year, at various times they have let slip the info - maybe by accident or maybe by design - and that appears to be to retain the status quo; Neuville in car #7, Dani and Hayden alternating car #8 and #20 and Abbring in car #10 for selected events. Will there be enough of the i20 evolution to go around? Initially, no. So the #2 team will continue with this year's model at least for the first few rallies.
But back to Thierry...
At the very least, Hyundai would have expected their star driver to be in the top four every rally but it clearly hasn't worked out that way. For reasons that only Neuville knows, he's suffering from a crisis of confidence. At least a part of that has to do with the delayed delivery of the 2016 model i20, something that he had been depending on to get closer to parity with the competition's machinery. A disappointment for him certainly, but in his position within the team, it's something that he should have dealt with, then refocused. He didn't, but RallyGB may be the place to remedy that.
Nevertheless, compared to other 'name' drivers in the championship, Thierry is not performing well; currently he sits 152 points behind Ogier, 74 points behind Latvala and 40 points in arrears of his good mate Mikkelsen. That fifth place is certainly not where his historical performances suggest he should be. Regardless of his lack of opportunity to score constructor points in Wales, Neuville can still score driver points, and with the pressure off, the team have opened the door for him to again show what he's capable of; to rekindle the career that had earlier shown so much promise.
And to prove himself worthy of the title Lead Driver.
It'll be the third such promotion for Paddon. He took over Sordo's i20 in Sweden while the Spaniard was out with injury, replaced Dani on the #1 team in Australia and now is certain to replace Thierry on RallyGB. In the Kiwi's defence, these moves are tactical decisions by the team, not some kind of palace coup by an ambitious pretender to the throne.
With the race for second in the manufacturers' standings so close - Hyundai trailing Citroen by just a single point after Corsica - the Korean team is gambling on Paddon's confidence and Sordo's consistent pace to tilt the balance back in their favour. Given the disappointing results Neuville has turned in over recent rallies, this tactical move shoudn't have been a surprise to anyone.
But it was. Regardless of the run of poor form by their lead driver, he is the nominated team #1, acknowledged by all the team bosses in the championship as a future champion, and openly discussed as a potential member of competitor teams. These guys know of what they speak, so I'm not inclined to disagree with their evaluations - Neuville is a valuable asset.
It's not only the teams who are scratching their heads over Thierry's performance woes this season, the media and blogosphere also offering their take on how and why the Belgian's 2015 has become the "annus horriblis" that it has, and quite a few have been keen to point out that he still has a 24 point lead in the drivers' championship over Sordo and 20 points over Paddon (although that's a little misleading since Sordo and Paddon have each started one round fewer than their team leader).
Since his third place finish in Sardinia, Neuville's results record has made for some dismal reading:
Poland - 6th
Finland - 4th
Germany - 5th
Australia - 7th
Corsica - 23rd
A glance over the Hyundai drivers' performances for the season to date show that Dani has been highest-placed i20 WRC driver four times, Hayden also four times and Thierry only three times. Even the Belgian's most ardent fans would admit that's not good enough for a driver of his potential and the salary he commands. He's contracted to Hyundai for 2016, so in theory at least, he will remain in the Korean squad, but the devil is in the details and who knows what clauses might invalidate that agreement.
Those wagging tongues mentioned earlier have suggested that Citroen has an interest in Neuville joining the French team in 2016, but the only realistic way that might happen would be if all parties were to sign on to that arrangement. But then the question would arise as to who would replace the Belgian for next season? Despite Paddon's stellar improvements this year, he wouldn't consider himself a candidate for lead driver in 2016. Sordo might be interested in the role, but is his pace on gravel sufficient to convince the team management?
Despite Hyundai's reluctance to officially announce their team line-up for the new year, at various times they have let slip the info - maybe by accident or maybe by design - and that appears to be to retain the status quo; Neuville in car #7, Dani and Hayden alternating car #8 and #20 and Abbring in car #10 for selected events. Will there be enough of the i20 evolution to go around? Initially, no. So the #2 team will continue with this year's model at least for the first few rallies.
But back to Thierry...
At the very least, Hyundai would have expected their star driver to be in the top four every rally but it clearly hasn't worked out that way. For reasons that only Neuville knows, he's suffering from a crisis of confidence. At least a part of that has to do with the delayed delivery of the 2016 model i20, something that he had been depending on to get closer to parity with the competition's machinery. A disappointment for him certainly, but in his position within the team, it's something that he should have dealt with, then refocused. He didn't, but RallyGB may be the place to remedy that.
Nevertheless, compared to other 'name' drivers in the championship, Thierry is not performing well; currently he sits 152 points behind Ogier, 74 points behind Latvala and 40 points in arrears of his good mate Mikkelsen. That fifth place is certainly not where his historical performances suggest he should be. Regardless of his lack of opportunity to score constructor points in Wales, Neuville can still score driver points, and with the pressure off, the team have opened the door for him to again show what he's capable of; to rekindle the career that had earlier shown so much promise.
And to prove himself worthy of the title Lead Driver.
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