If you read my previous post on the subject of the Monte, you'll know that it had a gambling metaphor, and deliberately so. The form guide I offered suggested that of the five names put forward, three of those would appear on the podium. A bit rash, you might think given the notoriety of the event's suseptibility to fickle climatic conditions.
As it happens, my punt paid off. No, not in the sense of financial windfalls that you might expect if I had the 'nads to put my money where my mouth is. More in the sense of "this is a very likely outcome because I am paying attention" instead.
Obviously there are lots of impossible-to-foresee random events that can influence the results of any given rally, so sticking a hand up and making predictions is a good way to get egg all over one's face. Still, there are clues as to how a rally will play out if you care to look and sometimes things even happen in line with what might actually be expected. Rarely, I admit, but...
However, the majority of people reading this blog would rather not work it out in advance and would prefer the outcome to be a surprise. And so they should. A surprise ending is almost always preferable to one which is predictable. So it's fortunate that very few of this blog's readers took my picks as anything but guesswork, promptly ignored them, or forgot that I'd ever made them. That's blogging.
To the three who messaged to point out that they were impressed that the form guide was so accurate, their initial reaction was ''well done, dude". But that was almost immediately countered by "Actually, I could have made those predictions". 20/20 hindsight? Perhaps, but it wasn't so much about which of the fifteen possibles would podium, as it was who would not. But having said that, any half-knowledgeable fan could figure it out if they have a mind to.
The thing is, most don't have a mind to. They prefer that surprise ending.
Betting against the odds...
There were other gambles being made on the Monte, by far the most influential being the choice of tyres. You could have Super Soft slicks, Soft slicks, Winter treads, and Winter treads with studs. The specific scenarios that would suit each tyre type are quite obvious, and I'm no tyre engineer so I'm going to leave that as is, other than to add that each has its strengths and weaknesses.
The thing about Rallye Monte-Carlo is it's curious ability to offer a mix of road conditions that make it literally impossible to take with you the "correct" tyres for any particular stage. A competitor can (and will) encounter ice, black ice, snow, slush, wet tarmac, dry tarmac and mud in a single stage. And unless you're Sébastien Ogier, your choosing the right tyres for the two or three stages that you're equipping for is next to impossible. You can only carry six with you, after all.
So, you look at your pace notes and check your meteorologist's predictions and stare at the ice crew's recent reading of the actual surface, then try to imagine what that stage will really be like when you arrive in it, most of the time after other competitors have slithered around it dragging snow and water and ice and mud across places where you didn't even have any concept of the road surface condition at all.
Then you most probably just copy the choice of a competitor who you think is "in the know" instead. See? It's a gamble. But sometimes gambles pay off.
Take Andreas Mikkelsen on stages 9 and 10 of the Monte. Instead of loading up with the combination chosen by his teammate and tyre-choice-voodoo-practitioner Seb Ogier, the Norwegian chose to run four studded tyres and two softs. The first stage was mostly devoid of ice or snow. So two of his tyres were inevitably studded, and as everyone knows, studded tryes don't like tarmac. Which in turn meant that he would bleed time to his competitors on that stage while shedding many of the precious studs that he gambled on benefitting from on the second of that pair of stages.
But that gamble also allowed for having four studded tyres available for the second of the two stages (SS10), though admittedly two of those tyres would be somewhat the worse for wear by then. On a stage which was predominantly ice and snow, they would afford Mikkelsen more grip and therefore better traction, braking and handling than would be available to any of the other drivers with their meagre two studded tyres.
And how did that work out for him?
Meh, as it happens. Despite Andreas's winning margin on the shortish 17.13km SS10 being a whopping 43.9 seconds, he had previously dropped 1:13.5 to the rally leader on the much longer 51.55km SS9. That's a net loss of 29.6 seconds vs Sébastien's effort. A brave throw of the dice it must be said, but given the extra length of the first stage where he would necessarily lose time to Ogier over each and every km, it does seem that Andreas hadn't thought that particular game of chance through as well as he might.
But credit for the innovation at least.
Sometimes backing the outsider is the smart move...
Citroen's unofficial entry featured lead driver Kris Meeke and WRC top tier newbie, Stepháne Lefebvre, with the "smart money" on speedster Meeke to podium. Unfortunately for the Ulsterman, his thrilling battle with the VW #1 ran its course prematurely courtesy of a rock which smashed the sumpguard of the DS3 WRC into the gearbox and causing Kris's retirement from the rally.
One of those random events I mentioned earlier.
But despite Lefebvre having an event punctuated by a crash, a moment or three and some spins, the young Frenchman took fifth overall at the finish, his best effort since his arrival in the WRC. In the atrocious slippery conditions, in just his third start on the Monte, Stepháne beat some more-fancied and more-experienced opposition. A little luck here and there of course, but also a well-judged drive for the most part.
Lefebvre himself didn't gamble to any great degree - just the same "wiggle the steering wheel and hope" approach that his fellow competitors indulged in at some point on virtually every stage - so for the real gamble here, we must turn to team boss Yves Matton. Sure, the Citroen boss already had his eyes on Lefebvre as a future member of his main team, and this year's semi-privateer status gave him an out if needed, but despite earlier statements that Stepháne was a bit undercooked for the big time, he put the youngster into the DS3 WRC on a hunch.
And that 5th overall placing means Matton's hunch has paid off handsomely.
Nobody following the Monte could doubt that this inexperienced young Frenchman has what it takes to be a future contender, and maybe not too far into the future either. Sure, his performances have shone on the seal thus far, but it'll be interesting to see how his gravel performances improve in parallel with the tarmac performances of the gravel specialist, Hayden Paddon.
Paddon was another gamble, Michel Nandan's in this case, but he too has shown that an outsider bet can pay big dividends. It's a fantastic thing that the bosses of big WRC teams are prepared to park the safe options and take a decent punt. They deserve the windfalls that may just head their way.
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