WRC '16 - Paddon's year in perspective

The 2016 season in review

Monte Carlo

Hayden's first shot at the Monte was always going to be a learning experience and so it transpired. Surprisingly, SS2 saw him finish 4th fastest and fifth overall at that point, driving the 2015 version of the i20. It wasn't to last though - an icy bend caught him out on the first stage of day 2 and with broken suspension, he was left with a Rally 2 conclusion to the event, the remainder of the round becoming a learning opportunity for the crew. A harsh introduction to the classic event undoubtedly, but offering a glimpse of his pace on what was a very unfamiliar surface for the Kiwi.

Finished 25th


Sweden

His first competitive drive in the New Generation 2016 car brought Paddon a well-deserved 2nd overall. Although nominally helped by a lowly road position after his retirement on the previous round, he certainly made the most of it, keeping the pressure on the leader until the end. A promising sign for the remainder of the season.

Finished 2nd


Mexico

On his second visit to Mexico, Hayden was pumped for a great result. Sadly, his event was marred by a series of errors and mechanical woes that meant the Hyundai crew finished in 5th - not a bad result considering the set-backs encountered, but a disappointment that he felt keenly when he could have so easily have been on the podium again. When he was unencumbered by car problems, he was properly quick. 2017 in Mexico and Paddon will be targeting the win. And he's likely to get it.

Finished 5th


Argentina

As if to underscore the near-miss of Mexico, Hayden pulled off his first WRC win in Argentina. Fast all weekend, the Kiwi pushed rally leader Jari-Matti Latvala and withstood the constant pressure from World Champion Ogier. Then he put in an absolute blinder on the power stage to increase his lead over the fast-closing Frenchman and created a little bit of a legend into the bargain. It's not often that Ogier is caned on the power stage, especially when he's as close as he was to grabbing the win from Paddon. But history records that the Hyundai crew took the crown, and they well deserved their victory. The year ahead was looking very good indeed.

Finished 1st


Portugal

On an event where the New Zealander expected to do well, Portugal proved that in rallying, you never take anything for granted. Differential issues with his i20 had Paddon pushing very hard to stay competitive through the first day, and with the promise of a fix at service, he was confident that he'd come back from the disadvantage he was experiencing. Unbeknownst to the Kiwi, a large hole had opened up on the racing line before the second run through the Ponte de Lima stage. Although not the first to encounter the hole, Hayden's higher speed propelled the i20 into contact with an earth bank, which in turn launched the car off the road backwards, and rolling it once before the Hyundai settled back on its wheels. A bad result, for sure, but the ensuing blaze from dry vegetation on a red hot exhaust incinerated the car, destroying it completely. Ott Tanak suffered the same impacts and only narrowly escaped the same fate. From the high of Argentina, the Kiwi crew suffered the depths of despair in the space of a single round. Despite there being no culpability attached to the crew, the severity of the consequences were a confidence-undermining blow.

Did not finish


Italy

Just how important confidence is for good results was demonstrated graphically on the Italian round. Determined to make up for the disaster in Portugal, Paddon was pushing hard for a podium placing in Sardinia in a replacement NGi20 built from scratch in just two short weeks. So one can only begin to imagine Paddon's horror when he made a rare driving error that resulted in the car clipping a tree before slithering off a bank at high speed and into retirement. If his confidence had survived the Portugal incident intact, the same would not be true following the Sardinian mistake. There was nothing and no-one to blame but the driver, and it was clear that he was doing some serious soul-searching post-rally. But the season wasn't half way through, and there was plenty of time to make amends.

Did not finish


Poland

While never feeling comfortable at any point in the rally, Hayden's performance in Poland showed his evolving mental toughness, with a top three position throughout the event. Following two disastrous previous rallies, his relief was palpable and at the half-way mark, the crew were back on track to push for another win or two. Or at least more podiums, with favoured gravel-surface rounds ahead… Finland, GB and Australia, plus the mixed gravel/tarmac Spanish round still to come. After the disappointments of the DNFs they'd experienced, Poland's third place result was a welcome improvement and a boost in confidence for the Kiwis.

Finished 3rd


Finland

Hayden had expected to do well in Finland, a round that the Hyundai ace regards as his favourite after his home event. The super-fast flowing roads suit his driving style and he admits that he feels happiest when the speeds are higher and the technical sections are fewer. So it was a surprise to see his times being consistently below those of the competition - with the exception of his teammates. It appeared to be a grip issue for all three i20s and despite tweaks to both his driving style and the car, Paddon was unable to match the times of the fastest crews. In the end, he settled for what was for him a disappointing fifth place, but even with the problems he experienced, he was still just seven seconds shy of a podium at the finish. And there were still five rounds left in the season.

Finished 5th


Germany

Considering his acknowledged lack of familiarity and experience on tarmac, Paddon's fifth place was a suitable reward for his perseverance after an opening day fraught with spins, a puncture and a high-speed "moment" which set him back in the order. Day two's less squirrely approach promised a better result but Paddon took a gamble on his tyre choices which didn't return the expected dividend, and his progress suffered accordingly. A little experimenting with the car's set-up helped his performance on the final day and the Kiwi was relatively satisfied with the efforts on the unfamiliar German stages.

Finished 5th


France

Another tarmac event, another learning opportunity. Experimenting with both car set-up and his own driving styles, Paddon didn't really fire in Corsica, if "not firing" can be applied to a 6th place overall at the end of the round. Yet there can be little doubt that the Kiwi will have walked away from that event feeling that he "could have done better" as a report card might conclude. That would be a rather harsh summary though, with the notoriously tricky stages conspiring against his lack of knowledge of the event and his lack of stage distance on tarmac compared with his competitors. So in fairness, Corsica was a round that Hayden might well have finished at the bottom end of the top ten, yet still have been entitled to feeling pleased with himself. To finish 6th was a better result than it seemed at first glance. Expect the Kiwi to finish inside the top five in 2017.

Finished 6th


Spain

Day one in Spain was the time that Hayden had expected to push for a good position before the change to tarmac from the opening day's gravel surface. That didn't pan out. The anti-lag properties for the i20's turbocharger failed to materialize, costing the crew a bucket of time lost to their competitors. Once on tarmac, they were always going to be at a disadvantage to their opposition, so the opening leg was crucial to a competitive result. It showed then how much Paddon had improved on that paved surface, that at the end of Rally Spain, they held fourth overall against competition that had vastly more tarmac experience than the New Zealanders. Not a bad effort from them, and a clear pointer to better tarmac results next season.

Finished 4th


Great Britain

Another gravel round of the WRC offering Paddon the chance to shine on his favoured surface, Rally Great Britain turned out to be a darkish cloud on his horizon. With opportunities for a podium fast running out, the Hyundai driver really needed a good result here. But "good" is a relative term, and although he finished in fourth at the end of the event, it might as well have been tenth. Hayden really wanted, and needed, a podium finish to get his year back on track. But the wet, muddy, slippery tracks of Wales and England foiled his attempts to get to grips with the stages. Literally. He didn't miss third place by much but in the end, the narrowness of the failure didn't compensate for its presence on the score sheet. For once, Hayden simply had no answer to the conditions. Fourth overall is not a bad result for somebody who doesn't aspire to being world champion, but Paddon does and for that aspiration, fourth at Rally GB just wasn't up to it.

Finished 4th


Australia

Hayden's "home" event, Coffs-based Rally Australia should be top of Hayden's 'must-win' list. And it is. But 2016 had been a funny old year for the Kiwi and many of the opportunities that had been marked as goals to fulfill had not come to fruition. Beginning the Australian round, the final event of the WRC calendar, it was imperative that Hayden take the rally by the scruff on the neck and own it. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. Though it wasn't for want of trying. Pre-start, Paddon was confident and he carried that feeling into the opening day as evidenced by a tyre choice that included running hards on the front, a gamble that stood to gain the Kiwi a major advantage if it paid off. But it didn't, instead costing him some time and leaving him in fourth at day's end. By the end of the second day, he'd moved up to third and was a scant few seconds behind leader Ogier going into the final day. But a mistake on the only stage long enough for him to claw back time from second place and put a buffer between himself and fourth placed teammate Neuville saw him clout a bank and puncture. The time lost completing the stage on a shredded tyre (and mangled car) dropped him to fourth where he stayed to the end.

Finished 4th

Where does that leave us?

For Hayden and John, 2016 was year of highs and lows. It was a year of sublime skill, and of unforced errors, a mix of fortune and of misfortune. Of experiments made in an endless quest for improvement. Of gambles taken and of lessons learned.

As we head into 2017, Hayden has made it clear that his goals are for rally wins. Not a win here or there. He wants to fight for the win in every rally from now on - no excuses - so that in 2017, he will become totally WRC match-fit while earning valuable points for Hyundai Shell Mobis WRT toward the coveted manufacturer's crown.

And that in 2018, Hayden, John and Hyundai Shell Mobis WRT will all be world champions. That's one hell of a mission statement.

Has Hayden peaked?

It's a fair question, despite the year-by-year rapid improvements we're used to seeing from New Zealand's maverick rally ace. He's human, after all, and there's a limit to what humans can achieve even when their potential seems unlimited. This past 11 months have shown that he possesses the talent and commitment to be at the top table of world rallying, in spite of his having got there without the aid of the European talent nursery of abundant money and connections. But being at the top table and becoming World Champion are two entirely different things - just ask Jari-Matti. And Mads. And Mikko. And Dani. And…

That Hayden deserves his place at the top table surely cannot be disputed by now. Even with his acknowledged weaknesses on ice, slimy mud, snow and tarmac, his improved performances on those surfaces against his run in 2015 are obvious to all, and there's no evidence that he cannot continue to improve. Probably for years. Because that's the way he works. He is absolutely focused on a continued program of improvements - empirical gains that he, and we, can measure.

And you can bet that Hayden will be the first to announce that he's hit the wall, if and when that happens. But that's not on the cards in the near future.

Being at the top table, especially for an "outsider" such as Hayden and John from the antipodes, is a massive success in its own right. We sometimes forget that the young neophyte from Geraldine wasn't invited into that rarified clubhouse of European rallying. He had to push. And prod. And cajole. And sell himself, literally, to get through the door. And even after all that, it took the principal of a local motor vehicle importer to bridge the remaining gap between a local talent and the elite of European motorsport.

Hayden is now accepted as belonging among the brightest stars of world rallying, though it took a while and there was some resistance initially. But there's no consensus as to whether he has what it takes to be a World Champion. Just the quiet confidence of an unassuming young battler who isn't short of self-belief, and his family and friends. And of course, his fans. And they don't dismiss him easily.

WRC '16 - The Half Time Entertainment

The 2016 WRC has been quite the game so far, looking quite unlike the previous three years in some ways, yet sounding comfortably familiar in others. There have been the usual mix of outstanding individual performances and own goals. Intra-team sniping and unexpected empathy. Astonishing success and epic fails. And as the 2017 season with its changes and challenges heaves into view, this is as good a time as any to cover off a few of the highs, lows and the head-scratchingly unexpected. So let's have at it...

Six Different Winners In Seven Rounds
Finally the tedium of seeing a single marque and a single driver in the "Win" column virtually every round has gone. Regardless of your particular preferences for driver or make, you must still agree that 2016 has been a pleasant departure from the predictability of the past 12 years.

So far we have seen two wins from Ogier, and one win each from Latvala, Meeke, Paddon, Neuville and Mikkelsen. And while the main VW team has three wins to its credit over the two wins from the Hyundai #2 team, Citroen's semi-works effort and the VW2 team victory, the appearance of some machinery sans the VW logo in the winner's circle generates hope that this season will end a lot closer than we've seen for a very long time. Gotta be good for the sport

Way To Push Privateers Out Of The Sport
Ignoring the weirdness surrounding the stewards' decision to penalise Martin Prokop for a gearbox seal infringement which had been present on earlier events (mainly choosing to ignore said weirdness because Martin had already announced his intention to pull back from the WRC to go play in the Dakar and indulge in other pastimes, so it was already moot and the penalty was overturned anyway), the proposed 2017 season regulation that will ban most if not all "gentlemen drivers" from piloting the new-spec cars, is seen by most as a given.

If a privateer team such as Bertelli's fuckmatie squad cannot get their hands on the same spec vehicle as their opposition, they'll have two thirds of three fifths of stuff-all chance of being in the match at all. The FIA/WRC have subsequently let it be known that they're considering imposing their restriction on a case-by-case basis, rather than a blanket ban.

However, without a so-called "Super Licence" style qualification programme in place, the ad-hoc nature of the WRC's proposed regime seems to invite potential unfairness and cronyism. Let's hope they see the merit in a more formal qualification plan if they confirm the implementation of the pseudo-ban.

The '17-Spec Cars Will Be Deadly In The Wrong Hands?
Apparently so.

Yes, you could be forgiven for thinking that surely that also applies to the '16 spec weapons (which mysteriously avoid being banned from privateer use). And you would be correct. Presumably then, you'll be even more dead after mishandling your 2017-spec WRC car, than with the 2016 jobbie. Even though the aero packages, track enhancements and electronic centre diffs of next season's models are expected to make the beasts easier to drive at pace than the current versions.

The vexed question of how the galactically less-skilled WRC2 bods will bridge the newly-embiggerated gap to '17-spec divinity, has forced the WRC steering committee to consider yet another class of competition, this time between WRC2 and WRC, (WRC2+ maybe? Or WRC Minus?) using all the pre-'17 spec WR Car cast-offs that the constructors no longer want or need. Hmmm... not sure that's going to appeal to the likes of VW and Hyundai.

Whatever they decide, the whole notion of the 2017-spec cars being death-traps for anyone but the WRC elite, smacks of bovine effluent. The regs as revealed thus far suggest a measured increase in performance rather than a return to Group B arms-race lunacy.

Can you say "overreaction"?

Jut Like That Old Time Rock 'n Roll
Jari-Matti Latvala looked for all money like he had Argentina in the bag on the Saturday with a demonstration of pace that reminded the unbiased observer of the JML of old. A pity then that the nearly-irresistable force that is the VW Polo R WRC met the immovable object of a largish piece of bedrock in the Finn's driving line with the result that the Polo lost that bout and JM-L lost the rally.

The car's front right strut was smacked upward, piercing the top-mount and bonnet, and destroying the Polo's steering. The spectacular rolls that followed finished the job for the unfortunate crew. Up to that point, he was a shoe-in for the top spot, but instead of scoring his second victory of the season, he was out and history records that Paddon took his first ever WRC win. It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good, as my Mum would say.

Following his Argentina victory, Paddon was in buoyant mood for Portugal, setting quick times and looking strong for a good placing. Unfortunately for the Kiwi, on the second running of Ponte de Lima, his pace was his undoing. Unknown to the WRC contenders, following the first loop, a large hole had opened up on the racing line. This menace was obscured until the drivers were upon it, so all the leading WRC cars were at risk and each one in turn had a moment.

In Paddon's case, his greater speed launched the i20 through the air and into collision with the raised rockface on the inside edge of the road. The impact spun the Hyundai around and it exited the track backwards down a bank, flipping before landing back on its wheels.

The crew evacuated the car just in time to avoid being immolated in a subsequent fire ignited by the i20's hot exhaust, and the Hyundai was totally burnt out. A very big consequence for what was really a tiny misstep. Ott Tanak had the same experience with a very similar result, although with the help of the Kiwi crew, spectators and marshalls, they saved the Fiesta from the flames. Only Mads Ostberg's slightly slower pace had prevented his demise at the same spot.

Tanak was lucky that his Fiesta RS WRC survived, but his luck took a turn for the worse two events later in Poland while leading the rally by 18 seconds over Andreas Mikkelsen. With just two stages left, a puncture robbed him of his first win at the WRC top level, a victory that all who saw his performance agreed would have been a just reward for an outstanding drive over the rally's three days.

One can but commiserate with the Estonian and his DMACK team that they came so close. And M-Sport's Malcolm Wilson must have been gutted in missing out on the Fiesta's first rally win since 2012, a result that the Cumbrian firm sorely needs. At least the pace Tanak showed in Poland will give them great heart for a decent placing in the similar conditions of Finland.

The Resurrection Of Thierry Neuville
The Belgian has seen his fortunes change for the better as the season has progressed and the Hyundai squad has accordingly reaped the benefits of his improved performance. Especially as far as the Motorsport N team is concerned.

So far, both wins for the Korean manufacturer have been by the #20 entry, which, against expectations, have given the N team a healthy points boost. Not what M. Nandan would have preferred, I'm sure, but the same applies to Mikkelsen's win for the VW second team so not so disadvantageous as it seems at first glance.

So far this season, Neuville has bagged 61 points, currently sitting in 7th place which you might have thought unlikely viewing his performances at the conclusion of the 2015 season. So what's changed? According to Thierry, they've finally given him a competitive car.

A mechanical glitch here and there, a wee fuel miscalculation and the occasional less than perfect tyre choice have all conspired to disguise quite how much the Belgian has improved in 2016, but improve he did. A first, a third, a fourth and a sixth all contributing to his renaissance in the World Rally Championship.

At the half-time drinks break, Thierry has shown that he's going to challenge the leaders in the second half. A new, more positive attitude, a faster car, a boost in confidence and the desire to improve his value for the silly season approaching have come together to make him more competitive, more results-focused than we've seen for a while.

Whether or not Thierry is doing this with the team in mind, the benefits to Hyundai Motorsport GMBH will be tangible. But will he stay with the team for another three years? Doubtful. Particularly because much interest has already been expressed by the other teams toward the Belgian and he's heading into the prime years where he'll command the highest salary.

Still, you never know - Hyundai is serious about their WRC ambitions and they're well-funded, so in a bidding war they will be competitive. If they believe their future requires Neuville, then don't count them out. But my gut tells me that the rocky road that is the Hyundai/Neuville relationship has seen too much ego puncturing to navigate easily. We'll know in just a few weeks time, I think...

The Silly Season Arrives Early This Year
So having touched on the topic of factory seats, now seems as good a time as any to take a deeper look. Let's start with VW - because they're the easiest.

Ogier, Latvala and Mikkelsen are all confirmed as driving for Volkswagen Motorsport in 2017. Whether the rules mandate a three car team or the current two-team structure, there will be no driver changes for next season.

However, VW team boss Capito has suggested that their World Champion might retire from the sport should the start order not be changed so that the Frenchman is no longer disadvantaged. Unlikely, given that changes are mooted, and Ogier still has unfinished business in the WRC. But good for talking points...

Hyundai has yet to finalise their lineup for 2017. Paddon is contracted to the end of 2018, Sordo has signed anew until the end of 2018 but Neuville has yet to commit. Hyundai boss Nandan has let it be known that his preference is to have the same crews as for the past two years, meaning Thierry is welcome to remain, but it's up to the Belgian to choose his home for the next two seasons.

Right now, the possibilities are for Citroen and Hyundai to provide berths but there's an admittedly faint possibility that M-Sport could also be in the frame. Toyota-Gazoo looks unlikely at this point in time though.

My bet? Neuville will join Meeke at Citroen. We shall have to wait and see...

Citroen has been adamant that they won't be running a third car in their 2017 campaign. With Meeke confirmed for 2017 and 2018, there will be just a single space for three prospective candidates for the second seat. Neuville, as mentioned, LeFebvre or Breen.

Breen is seen as a bit of an outside chance, talented but not yet a sure bet. Being French, LeFebvre is a favourite to score a place in the French squad - in addition to his speed, the Frenchman has the inside running due to the historical preference by Citroen to promote their countrymen.

If Neuville bags the second drive though, it's not at all unlikely that PH would run a semi-works team for LeFebvre, and perhaps even another car for Breen.

TMR-Gazoo is the big mystery. Here are the drivers who won't be in the 2017 team:
Loeb. Petter Solberg. Mads Ostberg. Thierry Neuville. So, besides Juho Hanninen, Makinen's current favourite, who else might headline the Toyota team's efforts in 2017? So far, the probables seem to be from a trio of talented newcomers to the WRC; Suninen,
Lappi and Tidemund.

Who'll get the seats? It's a coin-flip I'm afraid.

And last, but never to be counted out, M-Sport is developing a 2017 spec car based on the yet-to-be-released 2017 model-year Fiesta. So don't doubt for a moment that Wilson will enter at least two cars next season. But there's a catch...

DMACK tyres apparently approached M-Sport with a deal for next year. What form that deal takes is unknown but speculation is rife that in turn for M-Sport using DMACK's tyres exclusively, the tyre maker will fund a two-car WRC challenge in '17.

But this is where it gets complicated - both Ott Tanak and Elfyn Evans were dumped from M-Sport's 2015 main squad and were replaced by Mads Ostberg and Eric Camilli. It seems likely that the DMACK deal would require Tanak and Evans to take over the main team seats from Ostberg and Camilli, leaving both of those latter drivers either out of a job, or at best, in a second string M-Sport team. Not a happy circumstance for either driver.

But what if M-Sport doesn't go for the DMACK deal?

DMACK could run its own team again, this time with both Tanak and Evans, in whatever car they can negotiate. And that isn't necessarily a Ford. In fact, Citroen has the head start in development to be in a position to build six cars prior to the Monte - one each for Meeke, Neuville, Lefebvre, Breen, Tanak and Evans if they so wished.

There's no doubt that the Citroen Racing firm would be able to run three cars if it felt the need, and the semi-works PH Sport team could do the same. Or Citroen could stick to two cars while PH Sport could run a team with Tanak, Evans and Lefebvre.

Of course, DMACK have a history with M-Sport - Tanak in the Fiesta RS WRC and Evans in the R5 version - so it's entirely possible that they'd stick with the Cumbrian constructor. Probable, in fact. But so far it's certainly not a given.

Like I said, the silly season is early this year.

WRC '16 - A Mads Mystery

There's a universal adage that reads something like this...

"If you're not going forward, you're going backwards".

It's a truism that could have been written for Mads Ostberg. You see, the popular Norwegian driver has always been there or thereabouts when it comes to pace, with moments when he really looked the business behind the wheel of whatever rally weapon he happened to inhabit at that time. But the WRC doesn't stand still as clearly demonstrated in the results achieved by the current crop of talented stage-winners. It's not enough just to be quick - you have to be challenging for the stage win. Or the rally win.

Sadly, Mads isn't in that category. Despite his speed and consistency, Mads hasn't looked like a winner all season. Why is that? In a word, "stagnation". He has reached a plateau in his performances while most of his competition have improved. And there are also a clutch of guys whose experience and skills have yet to reach the rally-winner level, but who are already threatening to out-perform Mads in speed on a consistent basis.

That sounds really dire, I know, but is it as bad as it sounds? Well, that depends on Mads. This WRC ace thing needs more than natural ability and big cojones. It takes practice and an awful lot of hard work - just ask the Paddons, Breens, Evanses, Camillis, Tanaks and Mikkelsens (to name a few) of the WRC world. They're not sitting back, confident in their ability and expecting to be victorious. They're doing their utmost to improve - on every event.

Paddon is a classic example. Two seasons ago, he was seen as fortunate to have gained a foothold in the WRC, a surprisingly competent antipodean who punched above his weight and a bit of a David to virtually everybody else's Goliath. No longer.

The Kiwi's consistent and rapid gains in speed and skill have impressed every team boss in the WRC and the greater mass of the skeptical rally supporters worldwide. Yes, Hayden possesses the native talent to be competitive, but it's also due in large part to his unquenchable thirst to improve himself - to strive to be the best.

So he invests as much of his free time as he can in improving his skills. On tarmac, on gravel, in analysing conditions, in car set-up, learning from the performances of his rivals and probably most importantly, in being honest with himself as to his weaknesses and asking for help to overcome them. In a sport where ego is a huge component in motivation and success, the sort of self-analysis Paddon applies in his chosen career is key to the rate at which he has improved in his time in the WRC. Hard work trumps innate ability sometimes. And asking for help is rare at this level of competition.

But back to Mads - at the half-way point of the WRC season, the Norwegian's performance is neatly summed up by his place in the drivers' championship. Sixth overall compares poorly with the 3rd place he held after seven events last year. Yet the M-Sport lead driver has consistently voiced his satisfaction with his driving, despite the lacklustre times he's been posting. How can that be?

Mads has hinted at times that the Fiesta RS WRC is not capable of delivering more, that he has felt content with the performances he's putting in but the car is limiting the times they can achieve. Which may or may not have seemed a realistic interpretation until Rally Poland, where Ott Tanak, in a virtually identical vehicle, led the rally for three days, losing the victory only through time lost to a puncture and relegating the Estonian to second overall. But Tanak's performance across the event certainly undermines Mads's theory of the car being the limiting factor.

It's time for Mads to face the fact that he's slower because everybody else is now quicker. If he wants to get a factory seat in 2017, something that must be in serious doubt right now, then he will have to prove that this stagnation he's exhibiting is temporary and that he's capable of improving his own performance to once again match or better still, exceed, that of his peers. It's time for Mads to put in the required effort.

He's been a well-liked and respected competitor for ten plus years - it would be a shame to see him leave the World Rally Championship at this point in his career.

WRC '16 - Has the Polo lost its mojo?

Arguably the most successful single rally weapon the World Rally Championship has yet seen, it's finally looking like the VW Polo R WRC has met its match. Three and a half years of superiority is nothing to be sneezed at, mind you, so nobody should be shedding any tears for Wolfsburg's finest. It's just the "evolution" thing at work.

Taking nothing away from the VW drivers' own efforts, there's no doubt the Polo's superiority has contributed heavily to their successes, most notably Sebastian Ogier's outstanding results over the past three seasons. Three time World Champion, and looking likely to add to that total in 2016, Ogier and the Polo have proven to be almost unbeatable.

Almost... until now, that is.

Nearly half way through its first season, Hyundai's NGi20 has shown that, on gravel at least, it's a match for the Polo. Yes, it's had some teething issues with various components, weaknesses with steering/suspension elements being particularly notable, but the Korean manufacturer team learns fast, and the truncated initial development period for what is basically a one-year car, makes it seem all the more impressive that it's as competitive as it has shown itself to be.

This is not the place for muddying the waters with driver performances, an interesting topic in its own right and fodder for a future blog post no doubt - it's where we look dispassionately at the relative performances of the Polo versus its competition. And a look at the history of the VW contender paints a picture of a wunderkind who's seeing the sun set on its glory days. 2017 surely can't come soon enough for the Volkswagen team.

                     2013        2014        2015         2016

Wales           1:2:5        1:8           1:3:50        ------
Spain            1:2           1:2:7        1:2             ------
France          1:3:7        1:2:13      1:3:15        ------
Australia       1:4:6        1:2:3        1:2:4          ------
Germany      7:17          3:             1:2:3         ------
Finland         1:10:17    1:2:4         1:2             ------
Greece         1:4:10       ------         ------          ------
Argentina      2:3:8        1:2:4        17:            2:3:16
Portugal        1:3:6        1:4:14      1:2:3         2:3:6
Mexico          1:16         1:2:19      1:3:15       1:4:26
Sweden         1:4           1:2:6        1:3            2:3:16
Monte Carlo   2:            1:5:7        1:2:3         1:2
Poland           ------        1:2:5         1:2:5          ------

A quick summary of results can be expressed like this:
In their first year with the Polo R WRC, VW missed the top step just three times;
in their second year, they missed just once;
and last year, again on just the one occasion.

But so far in 2016, the team have managed just two wins from five starts - by their own astonishingly high standards, clearly a disappointing result. Hyundai, in the NGi20's development year, has so far matched the wins of the mighty VW team. And while it's still early days in the championship, the Korean competitor is looking every bit as likely on any round to grab the podium's top step as the German marque.

Ogier has made it known that development of the current Polo is at a standstill, with the team's efforts being poured into the 2017 spec car. That's no surprise, given the tightness of the time-frame until homologation, so we shouldn't expect the '16 Polo's performance to improve significantly, if at all, for the remainder of the year.

The Hyundai, on the other hand, has shown increased performance as the season progresses and with the Polish event about to take place, a round that should play to the NGi20's strengths, it would be a reckless punter who would bet against the possibility of a third top-step finish for one of the three Hyundais.

It's been said that Hyundai can't be capable of investing precious resources in further development of the one-year car when the 2017 version deadline is looming, but that thinking ignores the fact that the NGi20 is to a degree the real-world testing platform for the Alzenau team's next generation weapon - much of what has gone into this single-year evolution vehicle is new and destined to feature in the '17 car.

In Neuville, Paddon and Sordo, Hyundai's team boss Nandan has a driver resource that will be easily capable of parlaying the undoubtedly improved performance of the NGi20 WRC into further rally wins this year. It only remains to be seen how many more victories the team will accrue, and which driver(s) will get them.

WRC '17 - Does it have to disappoint? Part 3...

In Part 2 of the 2017 season preview of the World Rally Championship, the new chassis regulations came under scrutiny with emphasis on wilder appearances and greater spectacle as a result of more radical aero devices and wider tracks.
So there's plenty of scope for a huge uplift in positivity about the championship. Isn't there?

The rally format fail

Yes, I know. I may have mentioned these things once before, briefly. But in a season preview, especially one that offers as much 2017 apparently does, you have to cover it all. So read on and mutter under your breath if you must. Or just skip to the "Start Order" section below.

That #@$%&*! Sunday half day

If we accept that the average WRC event should encompass roughly 300kms of competitive stage mileage - around 40% on day #1, 40% on day #2 and a piddly 20% on day #3 - then those precious three hundred kilometres should work as hard as possible, right? I mean, we should expect every single one of those kilometres to count, surely?

Ogier on Condor - credit: magallanesdeportes

So how is it that they don't?

WRC '16 - Pondering Paddon...

I wrote this post at the end of Friday's action in Argentina. It's a draft, and before I had a chance to polish the wording a bit and stick a pic or two into the layout, events overtook the subject of the article.

In light of what eventually transpired, the predictive tone of the original has been lost a little - 20/20 hindsight could well have been applied, making the post irrelevant really. I had intended to shrug and delete it, but I decided, given how many others were seemingly thinking similar thoughts, to post it regardless.
I think maybe you'll enjoy it anyway...

Andy

The first full day of Rally Argentina is behind us and we're seeing trends forming, the most dominant being Volkswagen's consolidation of position at the head of the field. All three VW pilots are within the top five places.

This will come as no surprise at all to the reader, the sitution having a strongly familiar air about it. When was there a rally in the last three-and-a-bit years where VW's presence wasn't dominating the podium? Personally, I don't remember. But Rally Argentina may play itself out somewhat differently to the way it has in the past and has seemed almost destinued to continue to do.

WRC '16 - Out of the wilderness

In groups of two, or five, or ten, scattered across the face of our planet, fans of the World Rally Championship sat about sipping coffees, quaffing wines or chugging beers and talking in hushed, slightly reverential-yet-excited tones about shakedown at Rally Argentina.

Paddon and Kennard celebrate their victory at Rally Argentina

The theme of these discussions can be universally classified as " Is it time? Will it happen here, this weekend". And opinions swung from a tentative "Yes, it really could", as the rally first began, to an eye-widening near-certainty as the evidence unfolded in front of them, where it eventually became
"I think it will".

WRC '16 - Is the WRC format flawed?

Much chatter in the motorsport media and social media about the health of the World Rally Championship is evident at the moment. It seems that our sport is going through some kind of identity crisis, judging by the number of words written about the topic, most of them, (though to be fair, not all) apparently critical. So what's causing this outpouring of angst?

 The vexed issue of the start order

It's not a trivial undertaking to solve this issue to everyone's satisfaction, which is likely why the current solution continues to be the World Rally Champion's bête noire. As the driver most likely to be opening the road for the first two days on most, if not all WRC rounds, Sébastian Ogier feels that the deck is stacked against him.

Lately, the motorsport media are tending to offer sympathetic murmurings, reminding their readers that the three-times World Champion is handicapped by the poor grip levels he experiences for the opening two days on each gravel event. And as far as that goes, the motorsport scribes are correct. Rally Mexico was a good example of that start order issue in action. 

Both Ogier and Latvala drove what were in effect faultless rallies, and despite Ogier's presumed superiority as a driver, (he is the three-time WRC champion after all), Latvala's lower road position allowed the Finn to consistently beat the Frenchman on the loose surfaces until the final day when it was too late to matter.

WRC '16 - ¡Ay Caramba! in Mexico...

First points, first podium, first win for Jari-Matti in 2016

 The sun is going down over Guanajuato as I begin to type this, the dust has already settled, the post-rally fiesta has begun in earnest. And the man with the biggest grin is Jari-Matti Latvala. After two disastrous previous events where the Finn failed to score a solitary point, the win in Mexico has turned his fortunes around - with the second placing on the power stage, a nice little bonus. Latvala is back in the game.

He drove what is as close to a faultless rally as it's possible to humanly do, and he deserved the top podium step. Sébastian Ogier, coping as usual with road-sweeping duties, took as many risks as he was reasonably able to, but with Jari's optimal road position, it was always a tall order for the World Champion to beat the Finn. That needed mistakes from Latvala that for once in quite a while he simply didn't make. This was as close to the perfect drive as one could ask for and bodes well for his remaining performances in 2016.

WRC '16 - Mexico can't be as bad as 2015...

At least we hope not. The Guanajuato-based event in 2015 was, to be blunt, utter carnage. The list of those who crashed out on the first full day makes for depressing reading:

1: Ott Tanak
2; Hayden Paddon
3: Robert Kubica
4: Kris Meeke
5: Lorenzo Bertelli
6: Thierry Neuville
7: Benito Guerra

Way to hand Sébastian Ogier the rally on un plato, amigos. Where the World Champ should have been doing some heavy-duty road-sweeping on the morning of the second full day, instead he left that chore up to the miscreants comprising the start list above. The Frenchman thus benefitted big time from his 8th position through the stages, and despite his professed belief before the rally that he had absolutely no chance of winning in Mexico, he romped home. If you're interested in my analysis of last year's Rally Mexico, click here.

This year though, Hyundai have come to la fiesta dressed as if they mean to get a decent result. In the main team, newly-invigorated Thierry Neuville and the ever-reliable Dani Sordo will be ably supported by the sensational Hayden Paddon with his B team entry, all three drivers steering the evolution NGi20 model cars from the Korean constructor. Already, the greater performance of the new car is evident and barring mechanical issues, they should all apply some badly-needed pressure to the Volkswagen Polo R boys.

Kris Meeke, in his "gap year" guise, would have had no point-scoring pressure and thus would have been able to push right from the start, to go head-to-head with VW's Ogier in the semi-works Citroen DS3 WRC. This car is more or less in identical spec to last year's Mexican entrant, so Kris would tell you that the German team would have the advantage in hardware, but he'd also admit that his road position would cancel that out, and he'd be in no doubt that he was in with at least a podium shot - maybe the win. But of course, he's not entered, so that's a battle we'll have to watch on another day.

Mads finished runner-up last year, through profiting greatly from the mistakes of others it must be said, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he can equal the feat it he stays out of trouble again this year, as M-Sport's lead driver. In fact if things go well for him, you can't with hand on heart exclude the Norwegian from the top podium step. While questions may be raised about his outright speed versus SebO and Jari-Matti, Mads's consistency credentials are undoubted.

Having tasted the reservoir water on the previous Rally Mexico, Ott Tanak will be reluctant to repeat the experience, so it would be absolutely reasonable to expect a highly-focused performance from DMACK's new signing. He'll be running the same spec car as M-Sport's Ostberg and Camilli, so his speed on this event will likely be in the same ballpark as his Michelin-shod competitors.

But here's a wee wrinkle that might put el gato among the pigeons - the road order this year has its share of jokers. See below...

1: Ogier
2: Mikkelsen
3: Ostberg:
4: Paddon
5: Sordo
6: Tanak
7: Neuville
8: Latvala
9: Camilli
10: Prokop
11: Bertelli

Both Neuville and Latvala have a significant theoretical road position advantage over the first three on the road, perceived wisdom suggesting that the lower-ordered pair may threaten Ogier for victory in the event - we shall see it that turns out to be the case.

Despite all that, Sébastian Ogier is still odds-on favourite to take maximum points on the stages of Guanajuato, his blend of driving skill, racecraft and luck making his defeat improbable despite his road-sweeping duties. But a win isn't a given, regardless of what the commentators, fans and bloggers may believe, and Mexico might, just might, give us a result that turns this championship on its head.

And no matter who you support, that wouldn't be a bad thing at all.

WRC '16 - "Down tools, brothers..."

An interesting spin-off from Rally Sweden's shaky beginning this season was the revival of the notion of a drivers' representative within the FIA's rally advisory/management ranks. It seems to have germinated from the seeds sown in Australia last season, where a few drivers were vocal in their criticism of the ruling powers ignoring their viewpoint on night stages where hanging dust was more than likely to be a factor.

Fast forward to Sweden in 2016 and the same voices are heard expressing their dissatisfaction with what they perceived to be a lack of concern for the safety of the crews and the public. It reached the point where World Champion Sébastian Ogier called for a drivers' meeting at 0600 on the first competition day of the event, to discuss boycotting that day's first stage in protest.

History records that during the course of the meeting, it became evident that not all the P1 drivers attending were happy with the idea of a previously unannounced boycott blindsiding the organisers and paying public, even though agreement was unanimous that the crews should have a say in issues of safety. Hayden Paddon has subsequently been singled out as the hold-out who refused to take part in the boycott even though other drivers at the meeting agreed with the Kiwi's position.

As things transpired, the Swedish weather played ball, and the work the organisers did in repairing/preparing the roads basically rendered the safety issues moot. So even Ogier, ring-leader of the still-born drivers' mutiny, was appropriately upbeat about the event and the organisers at the end of the rally. So was it all a snowstorm in a teacup?

No. The drivers' desire to have some say in the conditions of their risky employment is real, understandable, and it's absolutely correct.

The problem is how to implement this input in a manner that doesn't hold events to ransom, yet ensures that the voice is heard, and that decisions are made with the viewpont of the drivers having a proportionate bearing on the outcome. Ideally, these discussions would be held in advance of the event that they pertain to, but that will never be possible in all cases given the tightness of the WRC schedule and the vagaries of the Earth's climate.

So, realistically, the drivers' advocate would be more effective in terms of policy rather than execution, simply because no single voice should be allowed to override all others and ultimately, nobody wants to see a boycott - neither FIA, organisers, promoters, teams or indeed the drivers themselves. So while a drivers' advocate is a good idea and such a role should be implemented for the WRC, the drivers' advocate would have insufficient power to act unilaterally on their behalf.

Thus, the answer to this seems to be a Championship Safety Officer, somebody with the necessary knowledge, experience, credibility and independence to be appointed to the group of WRC officers who currently monitor and manage the events on the ground.

Of course, it's easy when you say it fast. But when it comes to finding someone who has the requisite skills and necessary credibility with all parties, it's not that easy after all. An ex-driver, for example, might well be seen as too "driver-friendly", an ex team director might appear to some as unacceptably "team-focussed", and so on.

So we're looking for a skilled negotiator, who never ran a team, drove a rally car in anger, held a position in the FIA, organised a round but is fully up to speed with safety issues and the regulatory nuances of the World Rally Championship.

Good luck with that.

WRC '16 - Does road position really matter?

World Champion Sébastian Ogier has made his feelings on road position clear. He doesn't like the current rule implementation one bit. Why? Because on some events, he feels disadvantaged, running as he does as Car #1 on every rally these days.

For those who aren't familiar with the rule, suffice to say that the start order of the Priority One (P1) drivers is determined by their current championship rank. So when Rally Mexico begins, the following order will apply:
1: S Ogier
2: A Mikkelsen
3: M Ostberg
4: H Paddon
5: D Sordo
...etc...

Current regulations dictate that Championship Order will apply to an event's Thursday (assuming the organisers have competition scheduled on the Thursday - not a given), Friday and Saturday. Sunday, however, uses a reverse order start, where competitors not competing under Rally 2 line up with the car lowest in classification rank first off the line, through to the highest-classified driver, who starts last of the P1 competitors not running under Rally 2.

Now we've got that out of the way, onto the ramifications of the rule.

The WRC is made up of mostly gravel-based events - Mexico, Argentina, Portugal, Italy, Poland, Finland, Wales and Australia.

There are four rounds based on sealed roads - Monte Carlo, Germany, China and France.

Spain also fits the "sealed surface" mold for the most part, although its first day traditionally has a mix of gravel stages and gravel/tarmac stages, so it doesn't fit quite so neatly into the other categories, but since by far the bulk of its competitive mileage is on tarmac, I'd include Rally Spain in the "sealed" category personally.

And there's the most recent rally, Sweden, which runs on snow and ice, which is (and should be) in a category of its own.

What sticks in M. Ogier's craw, is that as Car #1, he has the displeasure of sweeping loose road metal from the gravel stages which costs him time to the crews behind him, and in order to mitigate that time loss, the Frenchman is under pressure to take greater risks than he would take otherwise.

Basically then, Sébastian sees himself as disadvantaged on eight of the WRC rounds. Nine if you include Spain, but under the circumstances, I don't see any compelling reason to do so and I'll stick with eight as the defining number of "disadvantage" rounds.

However, since most of the rounds repeat their stages in the afternoon, what was a disadvantage to Car #1 in the morning loop generally becomes an advantage in the afternoon loop, as the roads cut up from the passing of each car.

The opposite applies pretty much with the sealed stages, Car #1 having pristine surface to compete on in the morning loop with the surface becoming compromised with each passing car cutting and dragging mud, rocks, dirt and such onto the road. However, the condition of the road surface changes little when the loop is repeated, with everybody managing virtually the same conditions. So the balancing out that we see on the gravel stages doesn't really take place on the sealed ones.

And of course, the reverse order start positions on Sunday further level the playing field.

So at this point, rather than Car #1 (Ogier in this scenario) being disadvantaged, on balance it's neutral or perhaps a modest advantage. Sweden is the orphan here - when the Swedish rally is delivering its "normal" conditions, good depth of snow, snowbanks, temperatures below zero and so on, road position is more or less equal in terms of advantage. Even on the most recent "abnormal" Swedish round, Sébastian seemed to be in receipt of some very advantageous conditions as Car #1 although clearly not always. I'd say it was a wash.

One intersting wrinkle that has emerged from Rally Sweden though relates to another competitor entirely. Haydon Paddon has benefitted from his relatively low road position on past events, something that has not gone unnoticed by the WRC media, bloggers and fans alike, with an undercurrent of questions regarding Paddon's ability to compete without such benefit.

Indeed, Hayden himself has been quick to acknowledge road position and stage conditions as factors in his outstanding performances last season and now in 2016. As a result of his superb 2nd place in Sweden, Hayden currently has a championship classification of 4th, meaning he'll start Rallye Mexico just 3 cars behind the World Champion. So it will be educational to discover how competitive the Kiwi ace can be against Ogier, when his road position is no longer seen as a factor in his pace.

No pressure Hayden. All I can add is... "Roll on Mexico".

WRC '16 - The legend of Rally Sweden

The answer to the previous post is clear. Sweden didn't deliver the opportunity for Hayden Paddon to get his first win at the sport's highest level. Not that second place overall is anything to turn your nose up at. But it was a close-run thing and the World Champion was put under the kind of pressure he rarely experiences.

As discussed in that previous post, Sébastian held a substantial lead, 26.9 seconds actually, at the end of Friday's competition, but I made the argument that conditions forecast for the following day suggested that Paddon would pick up an advantage over the Frenchman, with more snow falling equalling a larger advantage.

Well, the predictions of 20cm of overnight snowfall turned out to be somewhat optimistic, and while the Kiwi's performance saw him move to within 8.8 seconds of Ogier (from a deficit of 32.4 seconds) in a single stage, the road conditions in general allowed the VW driver to to open his lead out to 17.1 seconds at close of the day's rallying. At this point, with just the 15.87km special stage scheduled for the final day, the chance of Hayden challenging for the podium's top step had gone.

However, it's interesting to muse over how it came to pass that Ogier was able to keep the determined Paddon at bay. The fact is, as Sébastian himself candidly admits, that the pressure from the flying Kiwi took its toll. At the finish line interview, the World Champion explained...

"Yesterday was a little bit too crazy and I took risks like I had never done in my life...”

It's not every day that Sébastian Ogier, an ice-cool technician behind the wheel, confesses to losing his composure. And as fan video from the stages, and in-car footage clearly demonstrate, the Frenchman also lost control of his Polo R WRC at least three times that day and he rode his luck to the very edge of catastrophe. There's a much-viewed in-car image of co-driver Julien Ingrassia's facial expression as the Polo careers at close to 190kph, completely sideways, in search of trees to hit.

If anyone tells you that the champ never really lost control or that his skill levels are so high that he made short work of each 'anomaly', then they need to tell that to both Julien and Seb. That facial expression captures forever a study in the anticipation of impending disaster.

Yet it's not the fact that Sébastian took risks. Or even big risks. Rally drivers at this level do that as a matter of course on every rally. It's the fact that the VW #1 was forced to take risks that even he knew were crazy in order to keep his young challenger at bay. A few centimetres or milliseconds difference here or there could quite conceivably have resulted in the total destruction of their car or worse. Much worse.

That didn't happen, of course, and Ogier's gamble paid off. By taking the "crazy" risks he did, he doubled his margin over Paddon's NGi20 and effectively put the top step of the podium beyond reach of the Hyundai crew. Paddon had briefly entertained the thought of pushing for the win, and at 8.8 seconds in arrears it was still within the realm of possibility, but 17.1 seconds was out of the question. We're talking about getting better than a second a kilometre from a three-times world champion here, and that would never be likely.

So Hayden settled for keeping his buffer back to Mads Ostberg intact (he increased it very slightly, 0.6 seconds as it happens) and the dream of a maiden victory vanished. Actually, the dream was ours more than it was ever Hayden's, for as much as he would have loved such an outcome, the well-grounded Kiwi knew that he would need Sébastian to make an error for the dream to become reality. And with Ogier's track record, the likelihood of that was next to zero.

At the end of the day, Hayden and John can be very pleased with the outcome. Thierry Neuville's transmission woes on day #1 of the rally dropped the Belgian so far down the order that he was never likely to score any points for Hyundai's main team, so the burden of that responsibility fell on the shoulders of the #2 driver Paddon. His outstanding performance over the weekend has kept the team in the hunt for the constructor championship, trailing VW by just 5 points after two rounds.

That he has become the first driver from outside of Europe to gain a podium position on Rallye Sweden is something unique in his CV, and it can never be taken from him. Paddon continues to improve with each rally he completes, his speed increases and his reputation as a future world champion continues to grow. Yet with all that, he appears to be completely unaffected by his position, his successes and his prospects.

Mr Paddon, you're a legend.

WRC'16 - Will Sweden be Paddon's maiden victory?

The Kiwi duo of Hayden Paddon and John Kennard are in good shape to realise the promise of their factory seats, by winning Rallye Sweden, round #2 of the WRC.

Enjoying their first outing in the Hyundai NGi20 WRC, the pair began their Swedish adventure with understandable caution given the low-speed incident that destroyed a wheel and any chance of doing well on the Monte Carlo Rally a couple of weeks ago.

Nevertheless, despite that setback and their unfamiliarity with the new car, the pairing set about getting to grips with the Scandanavian round, run in unusually warm and snow-deprived conditions. The lack of ice and snow on Friday's first three stages suited three-times world champ Sébastian Ogier well in his position as first on the road, the road surface degrading with each passing car, while Paddon, starting ninth, was forced to endure the slush from the eight previous drivers.

At the end of the morning loop then, Paddon found himself 45.7 seconds behind rally leader Ogier (also 21.5 seconds behind the "local" driver, second-placed Mikkelssen, and 9.4 seconds behind another "local", the fifth-placed Ostberg).

At this point, the fickle Scandanavian climate factored itself into the equation, and the afternoon loop was quite different. Snow had begun to fall and ambient temperatures dropped below zero, meaning that Ogier's road position advantage evaporated while Paddon's disadvantage did the same. Ogier was now sweeping the roads clear of snow, and each passing car contributed to further improving the grip for the following vehicles.

Paddon, and the driver immediately before him, Kris Meeke, saw benefits straight away and Meeke was fastest in the afternoon opener with Paddon only 5 seconds slower in second fastest. Meeke moved from 3rd into 2nd overall while Paddon climbed one place to 6th. Ogier, who admitted pushing hard, could do no better than 4th fastest although the Frenchman continued to hold the rally lead, 21 seconds in front of Kris.

SS8 saw Meeke's retirement caused by an impact with a hidden boulder, and Paddon took the stage win, 12.1 seconds faster than Ogier, 1.5 seconds quicker than Ostberg. In doing so, the New Zealand pairing also rocketed up the leader board from 6th to 2nd overall, 30.9 seconds behind the Frenchman.

By this time, having settled himself into the Hyundai's new rally weapon, Paddon's confidence was on the up and he showed just how much by scoring fastest time again on the final stage of the afternoon loop. This time, he beat the rally leader by 4 seconds, and topped Ostberg's effort by 6.7 seconds. Not too shabby considering the former's WRC Champion status and the latter's local knowledge and hugely greater experience with the Swedish conditions.

Hayden and John go into Saturday's leg holding just a tiny lead over the four drivers immediately behind him; Ostberg, Tanak, Sordo and Mikkelsen are all within 15.1 seconds of the Kiwis. Yet Paddon and co-driver Kennard have a real advantage as they tackle the second day. The weather forecast predicted an overnight snowfall of roughly 20cm, which would certainly make Ogier's job and that of the other front-runners more difficult as they clean the stages.

Paddon, on the other hand, should benefit from cleaner lines and as we saw on stages 7-9, the Kiwi was comfortable enough in the new car to make the most of the advantage offered. He took 18.8 seconds from Ogier in just three stages, 16.2 seconds from Ostberg on the same tests. It's certainly possible that Hayden could complete tomorrow's loop within striking distance of a podium top step.

He's been there before, of course, showing his class in Sardegna with a fine 2nd overall following an concerted battle with the World Champion and holding the rally lead for 15 special stages in the process. A momentary lapse and a spin eventually cost Paddon the lead, but he showed he has the guts as well as the talent to have earned that top step.

Without meaning to jinx the likeable Kiwi, maybe, just maybe, this will be his first WRC win. I'm so looking forward to Saturday's stages.

WRC '16 - A warm welcome in Sweden

Unseasonal temperatures in Sweden have raised the prospect of this, the only "real" winter round of the WRC, becoming a shadow of its former self. Rallye Sweden's claim to fame has always been its white landscapes, iconic snowbanks and sub-zero temperatures. To say it's both a drivers' and fans' favourite is somewhat of an understatement. But the paucity of snow as the event begins, and perhaps even more importantly, lack of an icy base, has caused deep concern among organisers and teams.

And resulted in the cancellation of some special stages.

At the end of reconnaissance, a shy, retiring type of driver made a couple of off the cuff remarks which have been repeated a few times since, causing much twittering. His name is Sébastian Ogier. You may have heard of him?

This is reportedly what he said...

"I don't know what we're doing here. There's no point in being here. I don't know who took this decision. It's absurd."

Reading carefully between the lines, I think we can safely assume that he isn't really happy with driving on gravel, equipped with nothing but studded snow tyres. Oh, I know what you're thinking, "Here he goes again, Ogier whingeing as usual".  Well, to an extent that's true. The point being though, is he justified?

I can tell you that the internet is fair thrumming with opinions being offered and debated over that very salient point. And some relevant opinions have triggered quite a lot of interesting back and forth, stuff that I'd like to share with you.

Whose fault is it?

This is a natural starting point for an analysis because we humans have an inbuilt need to blame someone or something whenever things happen that we don't like. I know this, because I indulge in that exact behaviour fairly regularly myself. And the fault lies squarely with... politicians really.

How come? Because we are experiencing human-influenced changes to the Earth's climate that were apparent over the last five decades at least while our politicians played the "Where's the scientific proof?" card until the evidence was so strong that they were forced to pay lip service to what was obvious to everybody but politicians and those in the fossil fuel industries.

Well, actually it was obvious to everybody, including those I excepted above, but self-interest takes precedence over the greater good every time and we still haven't done anything meaningful to mitigate our influence on the warming of our planet. Some day...

But back to the point. Rallye Sweden was planned with an expectation that the climate would play ball and we'd be looking at three days of whiteness with rally crews performing heroic acts on slippy snow and ice at impossibly fast speeds. It worked in previous years, right? So why would 2016 be any different? (If the blatant pollie blaming of the previous couple of paragraphs hasn't convinced you, then it was probably goblins or trolls getting their revenge for some imagined slight or other.)

But why couldn't the organisers and the FIA come up with a contingency to allow normal gravel tyres for those stages that might be devoid of the snow and ice expected. You know, a Plan B, if you like. Radical? Not so much. Most of the enterprises on this planet, including governments, have in place some alternative or other should the manure hit the fan.

So it's possible that here we're looking at the results of a failure to plan properly, and while many people, including the shy Sébastian Ogier discussed previously, have expressed their sorrow toward the organisers of the event, a case can be made that Rallye Sweden and the FIA could have prevented this situation. No, we can't magic snow and sub-zero temperatures whenever we feel inclined, but we sure as hell can truck in some gravel tyres.

M. Ogier has felt the need to respond to the battering he's been taking on social media over his viewpoint on the state of the Swedish stages. He posted this on Twitter...

"Like often, so much bullshit on the net... I love [Rallye Sweden] and never called for cancellation of the full rally! Just 100% gravel stages...".

You may well be cleverer than me, and understand Sébastian's response totally. But I haven't read your interpretation, so I'm going to offer up some posibilities.

Obviously the relevant bit is "never called for cancellation of the full rally! Just 100% gravel stages". Assuming he's not perfect as an English-speaker, the problem with his comment lies in the phrase "Just 100% gravel stages".

What this seems to mean is that only the stages that are 100% gravel (no snow, no ice at all) should be cancelled. Or... this might mean only the stages that are suitable for studded tyres (all snow, all ice) should be run. As you can see, those two interpretations are very, very different.

Either way, there's no earthly possibility the rally can run like that, because the conditions on the stages can and will change with the weather and with the effects of the passing field of cars. No organiser could possibly guarantee to run Ogier-approved stages under the conditions that prevail in Sweden right now. Ogier demands more than is reasonable.

Yet, the Frenchman's heart is surely in the right place. Studded tyres on gravel is a recipe for accidents and endangerment to crews and spectators alike, and I wonder if Rallye Sweden were not feeling the pressure to keep alive their event in the WRC, would they have decided to push ahead and run a rally that will clearly be inferior to their previous rounds, something that loses so much of the magic that has always been in it's Scandanavian winter mantle.

And with global warming's inexorable effects over the next half century, Rallye Sweden will have to move its dates forward a month in order to recapture the white winterland magic that contributes so much to the character of the event. But then there's also the Monte to consider - the iconic round would likely become the last round of the season in early December if Rally Sweden were to move forward a month. What's the likelihood that either happen? Low, I'd have to say. More likely would be Sweden being dropped from the championship.

And that would be a real shame.

WRC '16 - The Monte Carlo Form Guide

With the Monte just days from starting, thoughts turn to speculating on the probable victors in this most iconic WRC round. This year is a funny old season, with the likely antagonists coming from just two teams - current WRC champs VW and relative new boys Hyundai.

Sure, Citroen are fielding their ersatz semi-works entry featuring Kris Meeke and Stephane Lefebvre, part of a much-truncated programme of European-oriented rounds for 2016. And M-Sport has assembled an experience vs youth team starring Mads Ostberg, with newbie Eric Camilli co-starring in what is said to be a full 14 round effort. Although team boss Wilson has confessed to being in the dark over funding the China round, but an entry is an entry, so...

However, realistically only Meeke and Ostberg have a shot at the podium, and there are a couple of reasons why we should probably discount their chances. In Meeke's case, there are no team points to be had, so he'll be running the Monte for experience fearing no consequences for not finishing which in turn suggests he'll be keen on depressing the loud pedal frequently. That hints at some kind of "tinkle-bonk" moment(s) during the event and a lowly finishing spot. If the DS3 can still start on the final day, expect Kris to nab some Power Stage points though.

Mads's finishing spot will be determined by the misfortunes of others more than anything, his own performance being undermined to some extent by factors related to the changes at the end of 2015. For one, a new co-driver, Mikkelsen's previous passenger Ola Floene, means their pace notes together will be somewhat tentative early in the season - these partnerships take time to gel. Then there's the fact that it's a new team for both, complete with cultural differences and most importantly, the Fiesta RS WRC car, built with a significantly divergent philosophy from his DS3 of the previous season.

I deliberately dropped both Bouffier and Kubica from my pool of favourites, not because I don't rate them on the Monte Carlo; I do as it happens, but despite their proven pace on the event, their attraction to the scenery doesn't recommend them for inclusion in the "probable" category.

Paddon will be undertaking his first ever Monte Carlo round, and his total absence of experience basically removes the Kiwi from contention. In recent interviews, Hayden has made the point that they will use the rally to gain experience for the future, a wise course of action given the Monte's reputation as the most challenging WRC round. Still, it'll be interesting to see how he goes.

So the remainder, in the view of this blogger at least, are most likely to podium in Monte. They are...

Sébastien Ogier:
6 Montes
3x 1st placings
1x 2nd placing
1x crash
1x mechanical

Total Monte podiums - 4
Average points per Monte - 15.5
Driver errors - 1

Dani Sordo:
8x Montes
2x 2nd placings
1x 3rd placing
1x 6th placing
1x 8th placing
1x 11th placing
1x 15th placing
1x mechanical

Total Monte podiums - 3
Average points per Monte - 7.4
Driver errors - 0 

Andreas Mikkelsen:
3x Montes
1x 3rd placing
1x 7th placing
1x mechanical

Total Monte podiums - 1
Average points per Monte - 7.0
Driver errors - 0  

Jari-Matti Latvala:
8 Montes
1x 2nd placing
1x 5th placing
1x 12th placing
1x 41st placing
4x crashes

Total Monte podiums - 1
Average points per Monte - 3.5
Driver errors - 4 

Thierry Neuville:
5x Montes
1x 5th placing
4x crashes

Total Monte podiums - 0
Average points per Monte - 2.0
Driver errors - 4

There you have it folks. The form book has spoken and if you were a betting person, you'd have to consider those top three as likely candidates for the top three steps of the podium in Monte Carlo. Of course, nature and human nature being the idiosyncratic things they are, who knows how it will finish (quietly hoping here that Paddon will pull out another blinder on the rally against all the odds) but there are some pretty strong clues in the foregoing data. We shall see...

WRC '15 - Thierry Neuville; Crisis of confidence

The announcement from Hyundai Motorsport that the season's final round will see Thierry Neuville being dropped from the #1 team into Paddon's usual slot in team #2 and in turn Paddon moving to replace the Belgian in the manufacturer points-scoring squad, has set tongues awagging.

It'll be the third such promotion for Paddon. He took over Sordo's i20 in Sweden while the Spaniard was out with injury, replaced Dani on the #1 team in Australia and now is certain to replace Thierry on RallyGB. In the Kiwi's defence, these moves are tactical decisions by the team, not some kind of palace coup by an ambitious pretender to the throne.

With the race for second in the manufacturers' standings so close - Hyundai trailing Citroen by just a single point after Corsica - the Korean team is gambling on Paddon's confidence and Sordo's consistent pace to tilt the balance back in their favour. Given the disappointing results Neuville has turned in over recent rallies, this tactical move shoudn't have been a surprise to anyone.

But it was. Regardless of the run of poor form by their lead driver, he is the nominated team #1, acknowledged by all the team bosses in the championship as a future champion, and openly discussed as a potential member of competitor teams. These guys know of what they speak, so I'm not inclined to disagree with their evaluations - Neuville is a valuable asset.

It's not only the teams who are scratching their heads over Thierry's performance woes this season, the media and blogosphere also offering their take on how and why the Belgian's 2015 has become the "annus horriblis" that it has, and quite a few have been keen to point out that he still has a 24 point lead in the drivers' championship over Sordo and 20 points over Paddon (although that's a little misleading since Sordo and Paddon have each started one round fewer than their team leader).

Since his third place finish in Sardinia, Neuville's results record has made for some dismal reading:
Poland - 6th
Finland - 4th
Germany - 5th
Australia - 7th
Corsica - 23rd

A glance over the Hyundai drivers' performances for the season to date show that Dani has been highest-placed i20 WRC driver four times, Hayden also four times and Thierry only three times. Even the Belgian's most ardent fans would admit that's not good enough for a driver of his potential and the salary he commands. He's contracted to Hyundai for 2016, so in theory at least, he will remain in the Korean squad, but the devil is in the details and who knows what clauses might invalidate that agreement.

Those wagging tongues mentioned earlier have suggested that Citroen has an interest in Neuville joining the French team in 2016, but the only realistic way that might happen would be if all parties were to sign on to that arrangement. But then the question would arise as to who would replace the Belgian for next season? Despite Paddon's stellar improvements this year, he wouldn't consider himself a candidate for lead driver in 2016. Sordo might be interested in the role, but is his pace on gravel sufficient to convince the team management?

Despite Hyundai's reluctance to officially announce their team line-up for the new year, at various times they have let slip the info - maybe by accident or maybe by design - and that appears to be to retain the status quo; Neuville in car #7, Dani and Hayden alternating car #8 and #20 and Abbring in car #10 for selected events. Will there be enough of the i20 evolution to go around? Initially, no. So the #2 team will continue with this year's model at least for the first few rallies.

But back to Thierry...

At the very least, Hyundai would have expected their star driver to be in the top four every rally but it clearly hasn't worked out that way. For reasons that only Neuville knows, he's suffering from a crisis of confidence. At least a part of that has to do with the delayed delivery of the 2016 model i20, something that he had been depending on to get closer to parity with the competition's machinery. A disappointment for him certainly, but in his position within the team, it's something that he should have dealt with, then refocused. He didn't, but RallyGB may be the place to remedy that.


Nevertheless, compared to other 'name' drivers in the championship, Thierry is not performing well; currently he sits 152 points behind Ogier, 74 points behind Latvala and 40 points in arrears of his good mate Mikkelsen. That fifth place is certainly not where his historical performances suggest he should be. Regardless of his lack of opportunity to score constructor points in Wales, Neuville can still score driver points, and with the pressure off, the team have opened the door for him to again show what he's capable of; to rekindle the career that had earlier shown so much promise.

And to prove himself worthy of the title Lead Driver.

WRC '15 - Canny win? Corsican...

That heading above must be the most appalling headline ever written, and for that you have my apologies. As to what took place in that picturesque island during the Tour de Corse though, you can blame the weather. Torrential downpours that caused the cancellation of two of only nine stages that comprised this year's event, and played havoc with the natural order of things.

How you felt about that depended on your perception of what defines a good WRC rally. There are those who miss the days when men were men, rally stages were as much about surviving the conditions as they were about winning by a few tenths of a second, and the tougher the challenge, the better. Then there are those who like their events neatly packaged for the spectator, fast roads and plenty of ancillary entertainment to keep one amused. And in the middle of all this, there are plenty of folk who swing both ways.

But finding a formula that suits everybody is a pretty daunting task.

However, through its adoption of a very few unusually extended stages, which the weather further reduced to just seven, the Tour de Corse achieved the seemingly impossible. An endurance style event that didn't require the spectators to clock up hundreds of kilometres each day, ran on asphalt but with all the water, mud, detritus and road damage that a fan of the old formats could possible wish for, yet with some shorter stretches of relatively undamaged wet and dry tarmac for the sprint-style afficionados to nod contentedly about.

And all down to nature adding its secret ingredient "rain" to the mix. Very effective.

So to the event. Robert Kubica and Seb Ogier shared the scratch honours on SS1, with the rest of the WRC top tier entrants more or less in order behind those two. Not entirely though, as Thierry Neuville clipped a bridge with his i20 and broke the rear right upright, retiring for the day. And rookie Dutchman Abbring had his i20 up in 7th place, just three spots behind the fastest Hyundai driver, Dani Sordo.

SS2 was cancelled because the deluge that had descended on Corsica had caused flooding, washouts and slips and they rendered the planned stage impassable in places. So the drivers and sundry spectators trundled off to SS3 which, while affected by the surface water and grunge scattered about by passing rally cars, was at least passable. Not that anybody was particularly happy with the conditions, except for one Elfyn Evans.

M-Sport's young Welshman won the stage by 10 seconds over Hyundai's Abbring, who in turn beat Stephane Sarrazin and who led Bryan Bouffier - not really the names you expect to be troubling the writers of leaderboard info.

One whose name could realistically be expected on the board in elevated position is the 2015 World Champion, Sébastien Ogier. Following a puncture and more than a minute's time loss, the frenchman's Polo R WRC died from gearbox woes on its way to service and Ogier dropped to 87th overall following his retirement and subsequent Rally 2 restart. Quel horreur!

Even previous Corsica winner, Dani Sordo, languished in lowly 19th. I don't know if these oddities in position can be directly attributed to the Corsican weather bomb, but in the absence of any other explanation, I'm going with that theory.

SS4, a planned repeat of SS2, was also cancelled, and Saturday's leg began with SS5 instead. The day dawned with blue skies and gentle breezes, the storm front having passed and in the process of saturating other bits of the European continent. But the legacy lived on in Corsica to the delight of nobody involved in the rally, with road surfaces alternately dry, greasy, muddy, wet and gritty. Evans led as the stage began but 36.5km later, Jari-Matti latvala had taken 20 seconds from him and the Welshman's lead had dropped to 1.7 seconds.

So the natural order of things began to assert itself once more, with the fastest five on SS5 comprising Latvala, Mikkelsen, Ogier, Meeke and Sordo. One slight oddity was the sixth place of Hayden Paddon, who had so little experience competing on tarmac, any tarmac, that he was treating the Tour de Corse as a practice session for the upcoming Rallye de España. Clearly the pre-event asphalt coaching the Kiwi took on the week before the TdC was paying dividends, although as usual, Paddon was quick to point out that he had plenty of work to do.

SS6 completed the second day and the crews headed for bed with a somewhat different leaderboard than that of Friday evening. Latvala now led Evans by just two seconds, who in turn had a lead of 29 seconds over Mikkelsen. Meeke had moved up to 4th, Abbring had dropped to 5th, with Ostberg leading tarmac rookie Paddon by 20 seconds. Bouffier and Sarrazin preceded Tanak and Sordo, with Rally 2 drivers Neuville and Ogier in 37th and 24th places respectively.

Unusually for a WRC event, the final day turned out to be the longest, courtesy of the stage cancellations of the previous days. So there was quite a lot to play for, for a welcome change.

Individual battles loomed large with the relatively small margins of time between various competitors, the top three places being particularly interesting, so this was going to be very exciting. The Latvala/Evans fight particularly so. When the smoke cleared, Latvala had completed a storming run over SS7, beating the Ford Fiesta of Evans by a healthy 15.6 seconds, but the Welshman held his second place with a great drive of his own to keep third-placed Mikkelsen at bay with a 21 second buffer.

Meeke, who was by then unable to catch Mikkelsen and unlikely to lose 4th place to the speedy Abbring, did just enough to consolidate his position. Abbring's lead over Ostberg was a solid 16.5 seconds making Mads's task in overhauling the Dutchman increasingly dificult. But tarmac rookie Paddon took 19 seconds off Mads, moving himself to within 2.3 seconds of the Norwegian and signalling his intention to grab 6th position for his own. VW's Ogier won the stage and moved himself up to 19th place in the process, while Neuville was down in 32nd spot, having managed only 9th quickest time.

SS8 was one for the Hyundai boys, Dani Sordo on scratch some 2.3 seconds quicker than Ogier. Ogier's 2nd fastest time moved him up to 15th overall. But surprise of the stage was the third fastest time from Paddon, equalling Jari-Matti's time and bumping Ostberg one place in the process. Not such good news for Abbring though - he left the road and was unable to regain it, having to retire as a result. A disappointing end to a superb drive up to that point. Neuville's 8th fastest looked seriously poor for an experienced WRC competitor with a reputation as a tarmac specialist, his 25th overall placing totally underwhelming.

Abbring's retirement elevated the drivers behind him one place, so Paddon inherited 5th place with Mads 6th, now 6.2 seconds behind the Kiwi. Asked at stage end what had happened for him to lose so much time to Paddon, Ostberg could only reply that he himself had driven well and could do no more. Recognising the futility of risking all for a top podium spot, Evans chose to defend his current station against Mikkelsen, driving accordingly while dropping another 16 seconds to Latvala.

At stage end, Latvala led Evans by 32.7 seconds, while Mikkelsen had closed the gap to 2nd to just 9.8 seconds. There was still a lot to play for with the power stage yet to run.

The result is history. SebO won the power stage, grabbing the three points on offer even though he didn't need them. Kubica showed his speed once more, with a great 2nd fastest while Jari-Matti nabbed the third spot. Dani Sordo finished 4th fastest and ended the rally 7th overall, a disappointing result as far as the Spaniard was concerned and he rued the puncture that had cost him a couple of minutes earlier in the event. Mikkelsen, Meeke and Evans were the next fastest WRC regulars, with Ostberg, Paddon and Neuville rounding out the top ten.

So another well-driven win to Latvala, who kept his nose clean and pushed when he needed to, offering more proof of his skills and relevance to the world championship. Evans's performance on this tough event was outstanding. Had it not been for the superhuman stage time from J-ML where he got within 1.7 seconds of the Welshman, it seems likely that Elfyn would have mounted the top step of the podium. As it was, that result was his career best effort and it goes a long way to compensating for the lacklustre recent performances from the Welshman. And his tarmac chops are without doubt.

Andreas Mikkelsen completed just 3.2 seconds behind Evans, rewarded for his efforts by the third podium spot. A great drive from a very promising competitor. A win must surely be close. Compatriot Mads Ostberg, on his first drive following the recce accident in Australia, thought he'd driven well and seemed continually puzzled as to why his times didn't reflect his impressions of the crew's performance, but to be beaten by Hayden Paddon whose experience on tarmac was virtually non-existent prior to this event, must be rather deflating. Sixth overall is not a bad result by any means, but one can't help thinking he should have finished higher.

Kris Meeke, in his usual self-effacing way, drove the rally the way he needed to and seemed quietly pleased with the result - a fourth place and a bucket of points for his team's constructor championship hopes. Citroen overtook Hyundai by a single point and I suspect that the celebrations and relief at the Citroen after-match function were mightily enjoyed. Kris can be happy with his efforts in Corsica.

Yet again, Hayden Paddon and co-driver John Kennard finished a rally as the highest-placed Hyundai crew, which wouldn't be an issue if it weren't for the fact that he's the third-ranked driver in the Korean team, and mostly unable to contribute constructor points. It's difficult to avoid concluding that the Hyundai squad will be re-shuffled next season. The thing that energed most clearly about Paddon during the Tour de Corse, is that his self-analysis and commitment are exceeded only by his ability to continually improve. That is a rare and precious gift, and the WRC team bosses will be in no doubt about what that means for the future!

Sordo drove a fine rally and did his reputation no harm at all with his competitiveness and focus. It was only a puncture that prevented his challenging for a podium, and the Spaniard will have cemented his tarmac role in the Hyundai team for next season. The superb efforts on the gravel in Australia have elevated his stocks in the eyes of many as well. However, the same cannot be said for Hyundai lead driver Thierry Neuville. Thierry has finally admitted that his driving has not been up to the standard his role in the team demands and his disappointing season so far has harmed his reputation and his opportunities. He needs to excel in Spain or I fear for his career in the WRC.

Ott Tanak, another who like Paddon lacks any competitive distance on tarmac, confessed early on that he was struggling to find confidence or rhythm on the Corsican stages. Although his times were sub-par for a driver with well recognised speed, he brought the Fiesta home in 10th, picking up a point along the way and storing the experience for the future. Right now, tarmac is not his friend, but he's a determined young man and we'll see an improvement in Spain for sure.

Pity that the Tour de Corse had more than 20% of its stage distance cancelled, because we could have had even more competitive drama to enjoy. But it was still enjoyable enough and the marathon format certainly didn't put a dampener on procedings - it was the storm that pulled off that trick.

Catch you all in Spain...