The 2016 WRC has been quite the game so far, looking quite unlike the previous three years in some ways, yet sounding comfortably familiar in others. There have been the usual mix of outstanding individual performances and own goals. Intra-team sniping and unexpected empathy. Astonishing success and epic fails. And as the 2017 season with its changes and challenges heaves into view, this is as good a time as any to cover off a few of the highs, lows and the head-scratchingly unexpected. So let's have at it...
Six Different Winners In Seven Rounds
Finally the tedium of seeing a single marque and a single driver in the "Win" column virtually every round has gone. Regardless of your particular preferences for driver or make, you must still agree that 2016 has been a pleasant departure from the predictability of the past 12 years.
So far we have seen two wins from Ogier, and one win each from Latvala, Meeke, Paddon, Neuville and Mikkelsen. And while the main VW team has three wins to its credit over the two wins from the Hyundai #2 team, Citroen's semi-works effort and the VW2 team victory, the appearance of some machinery sans the VW logo in the winner's circle generates hope that this season will end a lot closer than we've seen for a very long time. Gotta be good for the sport
Way To Push Privateers Out Of The Sport
Ignoring the weirdness surrounding the stewards' decision to penalise Martin Prokop for a gearbox seal infringement which had been present on earlier events (mainly choosing to ignore said weirdness because Martin had already announced his intention to pull back from the WRC to go play in the Dakar and indulge in other pastimes, so it was already moot and the penalty was overturned anyway), the proposed 2017 season regulation that will ban most if not all "gentlemen drivers" from piloting the new-spec cars, is seen by most as a given.
If a privateer team such as Bertelli's fuckmatie squad cannot get their hands on the same spec vehicle as their opposition, they'll have two thirds of three fifths of stuff-all chance of being in the match at all. The FIA/WRC have subsequently let it be known that they're considering imposing their restriction on a case-by-case basis, rather than a blanket ban.
However, without a so-called "Super Licence" style qualification programme in place, the ad-hoc nature of the WRC's proposed regime seems to invite potential unfairness and cronyism. Let's hope they see the merit in a more formal qualification plan if they confirm the implementation of the pseudo-ban.
The '17-Spec Cars Will Be Deadly In The Wrong Hands?
Apparently so.
Yes, you could be forgiven for thinking that surely that also applies to the '16 spec weapons (which mysteriously avoid being banned from privateer use). And you would be correct. Presumably then, you'll be even more dead after mishandling your 2017-spec WRC car, than with the 2016 jobbie. Even though the aero packages, track enhancements and electronic centre diffs of next season's models are expected to make the beasts easier to drive at pace than the current versions.
The vexed question of how the galactically less-skilled WRC2 bods will bridge the newly-embiggerated gap to '17-spec divinity, has forced the WRC steering committee to consider yet another class of competition, this time between WRC2 and WRC, (WRC2+ maybe? Or WRC Minus?) using all the pre-'17 spec WR Car cast-offs that the constructors no longer want or need. Hmmm... not sure that's going to appeal to the likes of VW and Hyundai.
Whatever they decide, the whole notion of the 2017-spec cars being death-traps for anyone but the WRC elite, smacks of bovine effluent. The regs as revealed thus far suggest a measured increase in performance rather than a return to Group B arms-race lunacy.
Can you say "overreaction"?
Jut Like That Old Time Rock 'n Roll
Jari-Matti Latvala looked for all money like he had Argentina in the bag on the Saturday with a demonstration of pace that reminded the unbiased observer of the JML of old. A pity then that the nearly-irresistable force that is the VW Polo R WRC met the immovable object of a largish piece of bedrock in the Finn's driving line with the result that the Polo lost that bout and JM-L lost the rally.
The car's front right strut was smacked upward, piercing the top-mount and bonnet, and destroying the Polo's steering. The spectacular rolls that followed finished the job for the unfortunate crew. Up to that point, he was a shoe-in for the top spot, but instead of scoring his second victory of the season, he was out and history records that Paddon took his first ever WRC win. It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good, as my Mum would say.
Following his Argentina victory, Paddon was in buoyant mood for Portugal, setting quick times and looking strong for a good placing. Unfortunately for the Kiwi, on the second running of Ponte de Lima, his pace was his undoing. Unknown to the WRC contenders, following the first loop, a large hole had opened up on the racing line. This menace was obscured until the drivers were upon it, so all the leading WRC cars were at risk and each one in turn had a moment.
In Paddon's case, his greater speed launched the i20 through the air and into collision with the raised rockface on the inside edge of the road. The impact spun the Hyundai around and it exited the track backwards down a bank, flipping before landing back on its wheels.
The crew evacuated the car just in time to avoid being immolated in a subsequent fire ignited by the i20's hot exhaust, and the Hyundai was totally burnt out. A very big consequence for what was really a tiny misstep. Ott Tanak had the same experience with a very similar result, although with the help of the Kiwi crew, spectators and marshalls, they saved the Fiesta from the flames. Only Mads Ostberg's slightly slower pace had prevented his demise at the same spot.
Tanak was lucky that his Fiesta RS WRC survived, but his luck took a turn for the worse two events later in Poland while leading the rally by 18 seconds over Andreas Mikkelsen. With just two stages left, a puncture robbed him of his first win at the WRC top level, a victory that all who saw his performance agreed would have been a just reward for an outstanding drive over the rally's three days.
One can but commiserate with the Estonian and his DMACK team that they came so close. And M-Sport's Malcolm Wilson must have been gutted in missing out on the Fiesta's first rally win since 2012, a result that the Cumbrian firm sorely needs. At least the pace Tanak showed in Poland will give them great heart for a decent placing in the similar conditions of Finland.
The Resurrection Of Thierry Neuville
The Belgian has seen his fortunes change for the better as the season has progressed and the Hyundai squad has accordingly reaped the benefits of his improved performance. Especially as far as the Motorsport N team is concerned.
So far, both wins for the Korean manufacturer have been by the #20 entry, which, against expectations, have given the N team a healthy points boost. Not what M. Nandan would have preferred, I'm sure, but the same applies to Mikkelsen's win for the VW second team so not so disadvantageous as it seems at first glance.
So far this season, Neuville has bagged 61 points, currently sitting in 7th place which you might have thought unlikely viewing his performances at the conclusion of the 2015 season. So what's changed? According to Thierry, they've finally given him a competitive car.
A mechanical glitch here and there, a wee fuel miscalculation and the occasional less than perfect tyre choice have all conspired to disguise quite how much the Belgian has improved in 2016, but improve he did. A first, a third, a fourth and a sixth all contributing to his renaissance in the World Rally Championship.
At the half-time drinks break, Thierry has shown that he's going to challenge the leaders in the second half. A new, more positive attitude, a faster car, a boost in confidence and the desire to improve his value for the silly season approaching have come together to make him more competitive, more results-focused than we've seen for a while.
Whether or not Thierry is doing this with the team in mind, the benefits to Hyundai Motorsport GMBH will be tangible. But will he stay with the team for another three years? Doubtful. Particularly because much interest has already been expressed by the other teams toward the Belgian and he's heading into the prime years where he'll command the highest salary.
Still, you never know - Hyundai is serious about their WRC ambitions and they're well-funded, so in a bidding war they will be competitive. If they believe their future requires Neuville, then don't count them out. But my gut tells me that the rocky road that is the Hyundai/Neuville relationship has seen too much ego puncturing to navigate easily. We'll know in just a few weeks time, I think...
The Silly Season Arrives Early This Year
So having touched on the topic of factory seats, now seems as good a time as any to take a deeper look. Let's start with VW - because they're the easiest.
Ogier, Latvala and Mikkelsen are all confirmed as driving for Volkswagen Motorsport in 2017. Whether the rules mandate a three car team or the current two-team structure, there will be no driver changes for next season.
However, VW team boss Capito has suggested that their World Champion might retire from the sport should the start order not be changed so that the Frenchman is no longer disadvantaged. Unlikely, given that changes are mooted, and Ogier still has unfinished business in the WRC. But good for talking points...
Hyundai has yet to finalise their lineup for 2017. Paddon is contracted to the end of 2018, Sordo has signed anew until the end of 2018 but Neuville has yet to commit. Hyundai boss Nandan has let it be known that his preference is to have the same crews as for the past two years, meaning Thierry is welcome to remain, but it's up to the Belgian to choose his home for the next two seasons.
Right now, the possibilities are for Citroen and Hyundai to provide berths but there's an admittedly faint possibility that M-Sport could also be in the frame. Toyota-Gazoo looks unlikely at this point in time though.
My bet? Neuville will join Meeke at Citroen. We shall have to wait and see...
Citroen has been adamant that they won't be running a third car in their 2017 campaign. With Meeke confirmed for 2017 and 2018, there will be just a single space for three prospective candidates for the second seat. Neuville, as mentioned, LeFebvre or Breen.
Breen is seen as a bit of an outside chance, talented but not yet a sure bet. Being French, LeFebvre is a favourite to score a place in the French squad - in addition to his speed, the Frenchman has the inside running due to the historical preference by Citroen to promote their countrymen.
If Neuville bags the second drive though, it's not at all unlikely that PH would run a semi-works team for LeFebvre, and perhaps even another car for Breen.
TMR-Gazoo is the big mystery. Here are the drivers who won't be in the 2017 team:
Loeb. Petter Solberg. Mads Ostberg. Thierry Neuville. So, besides Juho Hanninen, Makinen's current favourite, who else might headline the Toyota team's efforts in 2017? So far, the probables seem to be from a trio of talented newcomers to the WRC; Suninen,
Lappi and Tidemund.
Who'll get the seats? It's a coin-flip I'm afraid.
And last, but never to be counted out, M-Sport is developing a 2017 spec car based on the yet-to-be-released 2017 model-year Fiesta. So don't doubt for a moment that Wilson will enter at least two cars next season. But there's a catch...
DMACK tyres apparently approached M-Sport with a deal for next year. What form that deal takes is unknown but speculation is rife that in turn for M-Sport using DMACK's tyres exclusively, the tyre maker will fund a two-car WRC challenge in '17.
But this is where it gets complicated - both Ott Tanak and Elfyn Evans were dumped from M-Sport's 2015 main squad and were replaced by Mads Ostberg and Eric Camilli. It seems likely that the DMACK deal would require Tanak and Evans to take over the main team seats from Ostberg and Camilli, leaving both of those latter drivers either out of a job, or at best, in a second string M-Sport team. Not a happy circumstance for either driver.
But what if M-Sport doesn't go for the DMACK deal?
DMACK could run its own team again, this time with both Tanak and Evans, in whatever car they can negotiate. And that isn't necessarily a Ford. In fact, Citroen has the head start in development to be in a position to build six cars prior to the Monte - one each for Meeke, Neuville, Lefebvre, Breen, Tanak and Evans if they so wished.
There's no doubt that the Citroen Racing firm would be able to run three cars if it felt the need, and the semi-works PH Sport team could do the same. Or Citroen could stick to two cars while PH Sport could run a team with Tanak, Evans and Lefebvre.
Of course, DMACK have a history with M-Sport - Tanak in the Fiesta RS WRC and Evans in the R5 version - so it's entirely possible that they'd stick with the Cumbrian constructor. Probable, in fact. But so far it's certainly not a given.
Like I said, the silly season is early this year.
Showing posts with label M-Sport. Show all posts
Showing posts with label M-Sport. Show all posts
Thursday, July 14, 2016
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
WRC '17 - Does it have to disappoint? Part 2...
In Part 1 of the 2017 season preview of the World Rally Championship, we touched on a surprising lack of excitement, considering the changes afoot. We took a look at the team changes and how the new regulations might affect the performance of the cars. In this segment, the new chassis regulations get the once-over.
So read on, you rally-obsessed peeps...
Is that a classy chassis I see before me?
What's with the wider track?
I was going to offer a pseudo-technical explanation in answer to that question, but the honest truth is that I have absolutely no idea. At all. So here's some idle speculation instead.
 |
| Citoen's C3 WRC weapon in testing. |
Wheelbase
and track are not absolute values as I'm sure you all know, but instead are
relative measures which vary in their ratio depending on what the
vehicle is designed to accomplish. It makes sense, therefore, that a
vehicle that navigates a great many bends, curves, turns, corners, hairpins and such
should have a relatively wide track and relatively short wheelbase to
enable it to change direction deftly. (Think racing karts for example).
Monday, March 7, 2016
WRC '16 - ¡Ay Caramba! in Mexico...
 |
| First points, first podium, first win for Jari-Matti in 2016 |
The sun is going down over Guanajuato as I begin to type this, the dust has already settled, the post-rally fiesta has begun in earnest. And the man with the biggest grin is Jari-Matti Latvala. After two disastrous previous events where the Finn failed to score a solitary point, the win in Mexico has turned his fortunes around - with the second placing on the power stage, a nice little bonus. Latvala is back in the game.
He drove what is as close to a faultless rally as it's possible to humanly do, and he deserved the top podium step. Sébastian Ogier, coping as usual with road-sweeping duties, took as many risks as he was reasonably able to, but with Jari's optimal road position, it was always a tall order for the World Champion to beat the Finn. That needed mistakes from Latvala that for once in quite a while he simply didn't make. This was as close to the perfect drive as one could ask for and bodes well for his remaining performances in 2016.
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
WRC '16 - Mexico can't be as bad as 2015...
At least we hope not. The Guanajuato-based event in 2015 was, to be blunt, utter carnage. The list of those who crashed out on the first full day makes for depressing reading:
1: Ott Tanak
2; Hayden Paddon
3: Robert Kubica
4: Kris Meeke
5: Lorenzo Bertelli
6: Thierry Neuville
7: Benito Guerra
Way to hand Sébastian Ogier the rally on un plato, amigos. Where the World Champ should have been doing some heavy-duty road-sweeping on the morning of the second full day, instead he left that chore up to the miscreants comprising the start list above. The Frenchman thus benefitted big time from his 8th position through the stages, and despite his professed belief before the rally that he had absolutely no chance of winning in Mexico, he romped home. If you're interested in my analysis of last year's Rally Mexico, click here.
This year though, Hyundai have come to la fiesta dressed as if they mean to get a decent result. In the main team, newly-invigorated Thierry Neuville and the ever-reliable Dani Sordo will be ably supported by the sensational Hayden Paddon with his B team entry, all three drivers steering the evolution NGi20 model cars from the Korean constructor. Already, the greater performance of the new car is evident and barring mechanical issues, they should all apply some badly-needed pressure to the Volkswagen Polo R boys.
Kris Meeke, in his "gap year" guise, would have had no point-scoring pressure and thus would have been able to push right from the start, to go head-to-head with VW's Ogier in the semi-works Citroen DS3 WRC. This car is more or less in identical spec to last year's Mexican entrant, so Kris would tell you that the German team would have the advantage in hardware, but he'd also admit that his road position would cancel that out, and he'd be in no doubt that he was in with at least a podium shot - maybe the win. But of course, he's not entered, so that's a battle we'll have to watch on another day.
Mads finished runner-up last year, through profiting greatly from the mistakes of others it must be said, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he can equal the feat it he stays out of trouble again this year, as M-Sport's lead driver. In fact if things go well for him, you can't with hand on heart exclude the Norwegian from the top podium step. While questions may be raised about his outright speed versus SebO and Jari-Matti, Mads's consistency credentials are undoubted.
Having tasted the reservoir water on the previous Rally Mexico, Ott Tanak will be reluctant to repeat the experience, so it would be absolutely reasonable to expect a highly-focused performance from DMACK's new signing. He'll be running the same spec car as M-Sport's Ostberg and Camilli, so his speed on this event will likely be in the same ballpark as his Michelin-shod competitors.
But here's a wee wrinkle that might put el gato among the pigeons - the road order this year has its share of jokers. See below...
1: Ogier
2: Mikkelsen
3: Ostberg:
4: Paddon
5: Sordo
6: Tanak
7: Neuville
8: Latvala
9: Camilli
10: Prokop
11: Bertelli
Both Neuville and Latvala have a significant theoretical road position advantage over the first three on the road, perceived wisdom suggesting that the lower-ordered pair may threaten Ogier for victory in the event - we shall see it that turns out to be the case.
Despite all that, Sébastian Ogier is still odds-on favourite to take maximum points on the stages of Guanajuato, his blend of driving skill, racecraft and luck making his defeat improbable despite his road-sweeping duties. But a win isn't a given, regardless of what the commentators, fans and bloggers may believe, and Mexico might, just might, give us a result that turns this championship on its head.
And no matter who you support, that wouldn't be a bad thing at all.
1: Ott Tanak
2; Hayden Paddon
3: Robert Kubica
4: Kris Meeke
5: Lorenzo Bertelli
6: Thierry Neuville
7: Benito Guerra
Way to hand Sébastian Ogier the rally on un plato, amigos. Where the World Champ should have been doing some heavy-duty road-sweeping on the morning of the second full day, instead he left that chore up to the miscreants comprising the start list above. The Frenchman thus benefitted big time from his 8th position through the stages, and despite his professed belief before the rally that he had absolutely no chance of winning in Mexico, he romped home. If you're interested in my analysis of last year's Rally Mexico, click here.
This year though, Hyundai have come to la fiesta dressed as if they mean to get a decent result. In the main team, newly-invigorated Thierry Neuville and the ever-reliable Dani Sordo will be ably supported by the sensational Hayden Paddon with his B team entry, all three drivers steering the evolution NGi20 model cars from the Korean constructor. Already, the greater performance of the new car is evident and barring mechanical issues, they should all apply some badly-needed pressure to the Volkswagen Polo R boys.
Kris Meeke, in his "gap year" guise, would have had no point-scoring pressure and thus would have been able to push right from the start, to go head-to-head with VW's Ogier in the semi-works Citroen DS3 WRC. This car is more or less in identical spec to last year's Mexican entrant, so Kris would tell you that the German team would have the advantage in hardware, but he'd also admit that his road position would cancel that out, and he'd be in no doubt that he was in with at least a podium shot - maybe the win. But of course, he's not entered, so that's a battle we'll have to watch on another day.
Mads finished runner-up last year, through profiting greatly from the mistakes of others it must be said, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he can equal the feat it he stays out of trouble again this year, as M-Sport's lead driver. In fact if things go well for him, you can't with hand on heart exclude the Norwegian from the top podium step. While questions may be raised about his outright speed versus SebO and Jari-Matti, Mads's consistency credentials are undoubted.
Having tasted the reservoir water on the previous Rally Mexico, Ott Tanak will be reluctant to repeat the experience, so it would be absolutely reasonable to expect a highly-focused performance from DMACK's new signing. He'll be running the same spec car as M-Sport's Ostberg and Camilli, so his speed on this event will likely be in the same ballpark as his Michelin-shod competitors.
But here's a wee wrinkle that might put el gato among the pigeons - the road order this year has its share of jokers. See below...
1: Ogier
2: Mikkelsen
3: Ostberg:
4: Paddon
5: Sordo
6: Tanak
7: Neuville
8: Latvala
9: Camilli
10: Prokop
11: Bertelli
Both Neuville and Latvala have a significant theoretical road position advantage over the first three on the road, perceived wisdom suggesting that the lower-ordered pair may threaten Ogier for victory in the event - we shall see it that turns out to be the case.
Despite all that, Sébastian Ogier is still odds-on favourite to take maximum points on the stages of Guanajuato, his blend of driving skill, racecraft and luck making his defeat improbable despite his road-sweeping duties. But a win isn't a given, regardless of what the commentators, fans and bloggers may believe, and Mexico might, just might, give us a result that turns this championship on its head.
And no matter who you support, that wouldn't be a bad thing at all.
Monday, January 18, 2016
WRC '16 - The Monte Carlo Form Guide
With the Monte just days from starting, thoughts turn to speculating on the probable victors in this most iconic WRC round. This year is a funny old season, with the likely antagonists coming from just two teams - current WRC champs VW and relative new boys Hyundai.
Sure, Citroen are fielding their ersatz semi-works entry featuring Kris Meeke and Stephane Lefebvre, part of a much-truncated programme of European-oriented rounds for 2016. And M-Sport has assembled an experience vs youth team starring Mads Ostberg, with newbie Eric Camilli co-starring in what is said to be a full 14 round effort. Although team boss Wilson has confessed to being in the dark over funding the China round, but an entry is an entry, so...
However, realistically only Meeke and Ostberg have a shot at the podium, and there are a couple of reasons why we should probably discount their chances. In Meeke's case, there are no team points to be had, so he'll be running the Monte for experience fearing no consequences for not finishing which in turn suggests he'll be keen on depressing the loud pedal frequently. That hints at some kind of "tinkle-bonk" moment(s) during the event and a lowly finishing spot. If the DS3 can still start on the final day, expect Kris to nab some Power Stage points though.
Mads's finishing spot will be determined by the misfortunes of others more than anything, his own performance being undermined to some extent by factors related to the changes at the end of 2015. For one, a new co-driver, Mikkelsen's previous passenger Ola Floene, means their pace notes together will be somewhat tentative early in the season - these partnerships take time to gel. Then there's the fact that it's a new team for both, complete with cultural differences and most importantly, the Fiesta RS WRC car, built with a significantly divergent philosophy from his DS3 of the previous season.
I deliberately dropped both Bouffier and Kubica from my pool of favourites, not because I don't rate them on the Monte Carlo; I do as it happens, but despite their proven pace on the event, their attraction to the scenery doesn't recommend them for inclusion in the "probable" category.
Paddon will be undertaking his first ever Monte Carlo round, and his total absence of experience basically removes the Kiwi from contention. In recent interviews, Hayden has made the point that they will use the rally to gain experience for the future, a wise course of action given the Monte's reputation as the most challenging WRC round. Still, it'll be interesting to see how he goes.
So the remainder, in the view of this blogger at least, are most likely to podium in Monte. They are...
Sébastien Ogier:
6 Montes
3x 1st placings
1x 2nd placing
1x crash
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 4
Average points per Monte - 15.5
Driver errors - 1
Dani Sordo:
8x Montes
2x 2nd placings
1x 3rd placing
1x 6th placing
1x 8th placing
1x 11th placing
1x 15th placing
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 3
Average points per Monte - 7.4
Driver errors - 0
Andreas Mikkelsen:
3x Montes
1x 3rd placing
1x 7th placing
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 1
Average points per Monte - 7.0
Driver errors - 0
Jari-Matti Latvala:
8 Montes
1x 2nd placing
1x 5th placing
1x 12th placing
1x 41st placing
4x crashes
Total Monte podiums - 1
Average points per Monte - 3.5
Driver errors - 4
Thierry Neuville:
5x Montes
1x 5th placing
4x crashes
Total Monte podiums - 0
Average points per Monte - 2.0
Driver errors - 4
There you have it folks. The form book has spoken and if you were a betting person, you'd have to consider those top three as likely candidates for the top three steps of the podium in Monte Carlo. Of course, nature and human nature being the idiosyncratic things they are, who knows how it will finish (quietly hoping here that Paddon will pull out another blinder on the rally against all the odds) but there are some pretty strong clues in the foregoing data. We shall see...
Sure, Citroen are fielding their ersatz semi-works entry featuring Kris Meeke and Stephane Lefebvre, part of a much-truncated programme of European-oriented rounds for 2016. And M-Sport has assembled an experience vs youth team starring Mads Ostberg, with newbie Eric Camilli co-starring in what is said to be a full 14 round effort. Although team boss Wilson has confessed to being in the dark over funding the China round, but an entry is an entry, so...
However, realistically only Meeke and Ostberg have a shot at the podium, and there are a couple of reasons why we should probably discount their chances. In Meeke's case, there are no team points to be had, so he'll be running the Monte for experience fearing no consequences for not finishing which in turn suggests he'll be keen on depressing the loud pedal frequently. That hints at some kind of "tinkle-bonk" moment(s) during the event and a lowly finishing spot. If the DS3 can still start on the final day, expect Kris to nab some Power Stage points though.
Mads's finishing spot will be determined by the misfortunes of others more than anything, his own performance being undermined to some extent by factors related to the changes at the end of 2015. For one, a new co-driver, Mikkelsen's previous passenger Ola Floene, means their pace notes together will be somewhat tentative early in the season - these partnerships take time to gel. Then there's the fact that it's a new team for both, complete with cultural differences and most importantly, the Fiesta RS WRC car, built with a significantly divergent philosophy from his DS3 of the previous season.
I deliberately dropped both Bouffier and Kubica from my pool of favourites, not because I don't rate them on the Monte Carlo; I do as it happens, but despite their proven pace on the event, their attraction to the scenery doesn't recommend them for inclusion in the "probable" category.
Paddon will be undertaking his first ever Monte Carlo round, and his total absence of experience basically removes the Kiwi from contention. In recent interviews, Hayden has made the point that they will use the rally to gain experience for the future, a wise course of action given the Monte's reputation as the most challenging WRC round. Still, it'll be interesting to see how he goes.
So the remainder, in the view of this blogger at least, are most likely to podium in Monte. They are...
Sébastien Ogier:
6 Montes
3x 1st placings
1x 2nd placing
1x crash
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 4
Average points per Monte - 15.5
Driver errors - 1
Dani Sordo:
8x Montes
2x 2nd placings
1x 3rd placing
1x 6th placing
1x 8th placing
1x 11th placing
1x 15th placing
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 3
Average points per Monte - 7.4
Driver errors - 0
Andreas Mikkelsen:
3x Montes
1x 3rd placing
1x 7th placing
1x mechanical
Total Monte podiums - 1
Average points per Monte - 7.0
Driver errors - 0
Jari-Matti Latvala:
8 Montes
1x 2nd placing
1x 5th placing
1x 12th placing
1x 41st placing
4x crashes
Total Monte podiums - 1
Average points per Monte - 3.5
Driver errors - 4
Thierry Neuville:
5x Montes
1x 5th placing
4x crashes
Total Monte podiums - 0
Average points per Monte - 2.0
Driver errors - 4
There you have it folks. The form book has spoken and if you were a betting person, you'd have to consider those top three as likely candidates for the top three steps of the podium in Monte Carlo. Of course, nature and human nature being the idiosyncratic things they are, who knows how it will finish (quietly hoping here that Paddon will pull out another blinder on the rally against all the odds) but there are some pretty strong clues in the foregoing data. We shall see...
Sunday, October 4, 2015
WRC '15 - Canny win? Corsican...
That heading above must be the most appalling headline ever written, and for that you have my apologies. As to what took place in that picturesque island during the Tour de Corse though, you can blame the weather. Torrential downpours that caused the cancellation of two of only nine stages that comprised this year's event, and played havoc with the natural order of things.
How you felt about that depended on your perception of what defines a good WRC rally. There are those who miss the days when men were men, rally stages were as much about surviving the conditions as they were about winning by a few tenths of a second, and the tougher the challenge, the better. Then there are those who like their events neatly packaged for the spectator, fast roads and plenty of ancillary entertainment to keep one amused. And in the middle of all this, there are plenty of folk who swing both ways.
But finding a formula that suits everybody is a pretty daunting task.
However, through its adoption of a very few unusually extended stages, which the weather further reduced to just seven, the Tour de Corse achieved the seemingly impossible. An endurance style event that didn't require the spectators to clock up hundreds of kilometres each day, ran on asphalt but with all the water, mud, detritus and road damage that a fan of the old formats could possible wish for, yet with some shorter stretches of relatively undamaged wet and dry tarmac for the sprint-style afficionados to nod contentedly about.
And all down to nature adding its secret ingredient "rain" to the mix. Very effective.
So to the event. Robert Kubica and Seb Ogier shared the scratch honours on SS1, with the rest of the WRC top tier entrants more or less in order behind those two. Not entirely though, as Thierry Neuville clipped a bridge with his i20 and broke the rear right upright, retiring for the day. And rookie Dutchman Abbring had his i20 up in 7th place, just three spots behind the fastest Hyundai driver, Dani Sordo.
SS2 was cancelled because the deluge that had descended on Corsica had caused flooding, washouts and slips and they rendered the planned stage impassable in places. So the drivers and sundry spectators trundled off to SS3 which, while affected by the surface water and grunge scattered about by passing rally cars, was at least passable. Not that anybody was particularly happy with the conditions, except for one Elfyn Evans.
M-Sport's young Welshman won the stage by 10 seconds over Hyundai's Abbring, who in turn beat Stephane Sarrazin and who led Bryan Bouffier - not really the names you expect to be troubling the writers of leaderboard info.
One whose name could realistically be expected on the board in elevated position is the 2015 World Champion, Sébastien Ogier. Following a puncture and more than a minute's time loss, the frenchman's Polo R WRC died from gearbox woes on its way to service and Ogier dropped to 87th overall following his retirement and subsequent Rally 2 restart. Quel horreur!
Even previous Corsica winner, Dani Sordo, languished in lowly 19th. I don't know if these oddities in position can be directly attributed to the Corsican weather bomb, but in the absence of any other explanation, I'm going with that theory.
SS4, a planned repeat of SS2, was also cancelled, and Saturday's leg began with SS5 instead. The day dawned with blue skies and gentle breezes, the storm front having passed and in the process of saturating other bits of the European continent. But the legacy lived on in Corsica to the delight of nobody involved in the rally, with road surfaces alternately dry, greasy, muddy, wet and gritty. Evans led as the stage began but 36.5km later, Jari-Matti latvala had taken 20 seconds from him and the Welshman's lead had dropped to 1.7 seconds.
So the natural order of things began to assert itself once more, with the fastest five on SS5 comprising Latvala, Mikkelsen, Ogier, Meeke and Sordo. One slight oddity was the sixth place of Hayden Paddon, who had so little experience competing on tarmac, any tarmac, that he was treating the Tour de Corse as a practice session for the upcoming Rallye de España. Clearly the pre-event asphalt coaching the Kiwi took on the week before the TdC was paying dividends, although as usual, Paddon was quick to point out that he had plenty of work to do.
SS6 completed the second day and the crews headed for bed with a somewhat different leaderboard than that of Friday evening. Latvala now led Evans by just two seconds, who in turn had a lead of 29 seconds over Mikkelsen. Meeke had moved up to 4th, Abbring had dropped to 5th, with Ostberg leading tarmac rookie Paddon by 20 seconds. Bouffier and Sarrazin preceded Tanak and Sordo, with Rally 2 drivers Neuville and Ogier in 37th and 24th places respectively.
Unusually for a WRC event, the final day turned out to be the longest, courtesy of the stage cancellations of the previous days. So there was quite a lot to play for, for a welcome change.
Individual battles loomed large with the relatively small margins of time between various competitors, the top three places being particularly interesting, so this was going to be very exciting. The Latvala/Evans fight particularly so. When the smoke cleared, Latvala had completed a storming run over SS7, beating the Ford Fiesta of Evans by a healthy 15.6 seconds, but the Welshman held his second place with a great drive of his own to keep third-placed Mikkelsen at bay with a 21 second buffer.
Meeke, who was by then unable to catch Mikkelsen and unlikely to lose 4th place to the speedy Abbring, did just enough to consolidate his position. Abbring's lead over Ostberg was a solid 16.5 seconds making Mads's task in overhauling the Dutchman increasingly dificult. But tarmac rookie Paddon took 19 seconds off Mads, moving himself to within 2.3 seconds of the Norwegian and signalling his intention to grab 6th position for his own. VW's Ogier won the stage and moved himself up to 19th place in the process, while Neuville was down in 32nd spot, having managed only 9th quickest time.
SS8 was one for the Hyundai boys, Dani Sordo on scratch some 2.3 seconds quicker than Ogier. Ogier's 2nd fastest time moved him up to 15th overall. But surprise of the stage was the third fastest time from Paddon, equalling Jari-Matti's time and bumping Ostberg one place in the process. Not such good news for Abbring though - he left the road and was unable to regain it, having to retire as a result. A disappointing end to a superb drive up to that point. Neuville's 8th fastest looked seriously poor for an experienced WRC competitor with a reputation as a tarmac specialist, his 25th overall placing totally underwhelming.
Abbring's retirement elevated the drivers behind him one place, so Paddon inherited 5th place with Mads 6th, now 6.2 seconds behind the Kiwi. Asked at stage end what had happened for him to lose so much time to Paddon, Ostberg could only reply that he himself had driven well and could do no more. Recognising the futility of risking all for a top podium spot, Evans chose to defend his current station against Mikkelsen, driving accordingly while dropping another 16 seconds to Latvala.
At stage end, Latvala led Evans by 32.7 seconds, while Mikkelsen had closed the gap to 2nd to just 9.8 seconds. There was still a lot to play for with the power stage yet to run.
The result is history. SebO won the power stage, grabbing the three points on offer even though he didn't need them. Kubica showed his speed once more, with a great 2nd fastest while Jari-Matti nabbed the third spot. Dani Sordo finished 4th fastest and ended the rally 7th overall, a disappointing result as far as the Spaniard was concerned and he rued the puncture that had cost him a couple of minutes earlier in the event. Mikkelsen, Meeke and Evans were the next fastest WRC regulars, with Ostberg, Paddon and Neuville rounding out the top ten.
So another well-driven win to Latvala, who kept his nose clean and pushed when he needed to, offering more proof of his skills and relevance to the world championship. Evans's performance on this tough event was outstanding. Had it not been for the superhuman stage time from J-ML where he got within 1.7 seconds of the Welshman, it seems likely that Elfyn would have mounted the top step of the podium. As it was, that result was his career best effort and it goes a long way to compensating for the lacklustre recent performances from the Welshman. And his tarmac chops are without doubt.
Andreas Mikkelsen completed just 3.2 seconds behind Evans, rewarded for his efforts by the third podium spot. A great drive from a very promising competitor. A win must surely be close. Compatriot Mads Ostberg, on his first drive following the recce accident in Australia, thought he'd driven well and seemed continually puzzled as to why his times didn't reflect his impressions of the crew's performance, but to be beaten by Hayden Paddon whose experience on tarmac was virtually non-existent prior to this event, must be rather deflating. Sixth overall is not a bad result by any means, but one can't help thinking he should have finished higher.
Kris Meeke, in his usual self-effacing way, drove the rally the way he needed to and seemed quietly pleased with the result - a fourth place and a bucket of points for his team's constructor championship hopes. Citroen overtook Hyundai by a single point and I suspect that the celebrations and relief at the Citroen after-match function were mightily enjoyed. Kris can be happy with his efforts in Corsica.
Yet again, Hayden Paddon and co-driver John Kennard finished a rally as the highest-placed Hyundai crew, which wouldn't be an issue if it weren't for the fact that he's the third-ranked driver in the Korean team, and mostly unable to contribute constructor points. It's difficult to avoid concluding that the Hyundai squad will be re-shuffled next season. The thing that energed most clearly about Paddon during the Tour de Corse, is that his self-analysis and commitment are exceeded only by his ability to continually improve. That is a rare and precious gift, and the WRC team bosses will be in no doubt about what that means for the future!
Sordo drove a fine rally and did his reputation no harm at all with his competitiveness and focus. It was only a puncture that prevented his challenging for a podium, and the Spaniard will have cemented his tarmac role in the Hyundai team for next season. The superb efforts on the gravel in Australia have elevated his stocks in the eyes of many as well. However, the same cannot be said for Hyundai lead driver Thierry Neuville. Thierry has finally admitted that his driving has not been up to the standard his role in the team demands and his disappointing season so far has harmed his reputation and his opportunities. He needs to excel in Spain or I fear for his career in the WRC.
Ott Tanak, another who like Paddon lacks any competitive distance on tarmac, confessed early on that he was struggling to find confidence or rhythm on the Corsican stages. Although his times were sub-par for a driver with well recognised speed, he brought the Fiesta home in 10th, picking up a point along the way and storing the experience for the future. Right now, tarmac is not his friend, but he's a determined young man and we'll see an improvement in Spain for sure.
Pity that the Tour de Corse had more than 20% of its stage distance cancelled, because we could have had even more competitive drama to enjoy. But it was still enjoyable enough and the marathon format certainly didn't put a dampener on procedings - it was the storm that pulled off that trick.
Catch you all in Spain...
How you felt about that depended on your perception of what defines a good WRC rally. There are those who miss the days when men were men, rally stages were as much about surviving the conditions as they were about winning by a few tenths of a second, and the tougher the challenge, the better. Then there are those who like their events neatly packaged for the spectator, fast roads and plenty of ancillary entertainment to keep one amused. And in the middle of all this, there are plenty of folk who swing both ways.
But finding a formula that suits everybody is a pretty daunting task.
However, through its adoption of a very few unusually extended stages, which the weather further reduced to just seven, the Tour de Corse achieved the seemingly impossible. An endurance style event that didn't require the spectators to clock up hundreds of kilometres each day, ran on asphalt but with all the water, mud, detritus and road damage that a fan of the old formats could possible wish for, yet with some shorter stretches of relatively undamaged wet and dry tarmac for the sprint-style afficionados to nod contentedly about.
And all down to nature adding its secret ingredient "rain" to the mix. Very effective.
So to the event. Robert Kubica and Seb Ogier shared the scratch honours on SS1, with the rest of the WRC top tier entrants more or less in order behind those two. Not entirely though, as Thierry Neuville clipped a bridge with his i20 and broke the rear right upright, retiring for the day. And rookie Dutchman Abbring had his i20 up in 7th place, just three spots behind the fastest Hyundai driver, Dani Sordo.
SS2 was cancelled because the deluge that had descended on Corsica had caused flooding, washouts and slips and they rendered the planned stage impassable in places. So the drivers and sundry spectators trundled off to SS3 which, while affected by the surface water and grunge scattered about by passing rally cars, was at least passable. Not that anybody was particularly happy with the conditions, except for one Elfyn Evans.
M-Sport's young Welshman won the stage by 10 seconds over Hyundai's Abbring, who in turn beat Stephane Sarrazin and who led Bryan Bouffier - not really the names you expect to be troubling the writers of leaderboard info.
One whose name could realistically be expected on the board in elevated position is the 2015 World Champion, Sébastien Ogier. Following a puncture and more than a minute's time loss, the frenchman's Polo R WRC died from gearbox woes on its way to service and Ogier dropped to 87th overall following his retirement and subsequent Rally 2 restart. Quel horreur!
Even previous Corsica winner, Dani Sordo, languished in lowly 19th. I don't know if these oddities in position can be directly attributed to the Corsican weather bomb, but in the absence of any other explanation, I'm going with that theory.
SS4, a planned repeat of SS2, was also cancelled, and Saturday's leg began with SS5 instead. The day dawned with blue skies and gentle breezes, the storm front having passed and in the process of saturating other bits of the European continent. But the legacy lived on in Corsica to the delight of nobody involved in the rally, with road surfaces alternately dry, greasy, muddy, wet and gritty. Evans led as the stage began but 36.5km later, Jari-Matti latvala had taken 20 seconds from him and the Welshman's lead had dropped to 1.7 seconds.
So the natural order of things began to assert itself once more, with the fastest five on SS5 comprising Latvala, Mikkelsen, Ogier, Meeke and Sordo. One slight oddity was the sixth place of Hayden Paddon, who had so little experience competing on tarmac, any tarmac, that he was treating the Tour de Corse as a practice session for the upcoming Rallye de España. Clearly the pre-event asphalt coaching the Kiwi took on the week before the TdC was paying dividends, although as usual, Paddon was quick to point out that he had plenty of work to do.
SS6 completed the second day and the crews headed for bed with a somewhat different leaderboard than that of Friday evening. Latvala now led Evans by just two seconds, who in turn had a lead of 29 seconds over Mikkelsen. Meeke had moved up to 4th, Abbring had dropped to 5th, with Ostberg leading tarmac rookie Paddon by 20 seconds. Bouffier and Sarrazin preceded Tanak and Sordo, with Rally 2 drivers Neuville and Ogier in 37th and 24th places respectively.
Unusually for a WRC event, the final day turned out to be the longest, courtesy of the stage cancellations of the previous days. So there was quite a lot to play for, for a welcome change.
Individual battles loomed large with the relatively small margins of time between various competitors, the top three places being particularly interesting, so this was going to be very exciting. The Latvala/Evans fight particularly so. When the smoke cleared, Latvala had completed a storming run over SS7, beating the Ford Fiesta of Evans by a healthy 15.6 seconds, but the Welshman held his second place with a great drive of his own to keep third-placed Mikkelsen at bay with a 21 second buffer.
Meeke, who was by then unable to catch Mikkelsen and unlikely to lose 4th place to the speedy Abbring, did just enough to consolidate his position. Abbring's lead over Ostberg was a solid 16.5 seconds making Mads's task in overhauling the Dutchman increasingly dificult. But tarmac rookie Paddon took 19 seconds off Mads, moving himself to within 2.3 seconds of the Norwegian and signalling his intention to grab 6th position for his own. VW's Ogier won the stage and moved himself up to 19th place in the process, while Neuville was down in 32nd spot, having managed only 9th quickest time.
SS8 was one for the Hyundai boys, Dani Sordo on scratch some 2.3 seconds quicker than Ogier. Ogier's 2nd fastest time moved him up to 15th overall. But surprise of the stage was the third fastest time from Paddon, equalling Jari-Matti's time and bumping Ostberg one place in the process. Not such good news for Abbring though - he left the road and was unable to regain it, having to retire as a result. A disappointing end to a superb drive up to that point. Neuville's 8th fastest looked seriously poor for an experienced WRC competitor with a reputation as a tarmac specialist, his 25th overall placing totally underwhelming.
Abbring's retirement elevated the drivers behind him one place, so Paddon inherited 5th place with Mads 6th, now 6.2 seconds behind the Kiwi. Asked at stage end what had happened for him to lose so much time to Paddon, Ostberg could only reply that he himself had driven well and could do no more. Recognising the futility of risking all for a top podium spot, Evans chose to defend his current station against Mikkelsen, driving accordingly while dropping another 16 seconds to Latvala.
At stage end, Latvala led Evans by 32.7 seconds, while Mikkelsen had closed the gap to 2nd to just 9.8 seconds. There was still a lot to play for with the power stage yet to run.
The result is history. SebO won the power stage, grabbing the three points on offer even though he didn't need them. Kubica showed his speed once more, with a great 2nd fastest while Jari-Matti nabbed the third spot. Dani Sordo finished 4th fastest and ended the rally 7th overall, a disappointing result as far as the Spaniard was concerned and he rued the puncture that had cost him a couple of minutes earlier in the event. Mikkelsen, Meeke and Evans were the next fastest WRC regulars, with Ostberg, Paddon and Neuville rounding out the top ten.
So another well-driven win to Latvala, who kept his nose clean and pushed when he needed to, offering more proof of his skills and relevance to the world championship. Evans's performance on this tough event was outstanding. Had it not been for the superhuman stage time from J-ML where he got within 1.7 seconds of the Welshman, it seems likely that Elfyn would have mounted the top step of the podium. As it was, that result was his career best effort and it goes a long way to compensating for the lacklustre recent performances from the Welshman. And his tarmac chops are without doubt.
Andreas Mikkelsen completed just 3.2 seconds behind Evans, rewarded for his efforts by the third podium spot. A great drive from a very promising competitor. A win must surely be close. Compatriot Mads Ostberg, on his first drive following the recce accident in Australia, thought he'd driven well and seemed continually puzzled as to why his times didn't reflect his impressions of the crew's performance, but to be beaten by Hayden Paddon whose experience on tarmac was virtually non-existent prior to this event, must be rather deflating. Sixth overall is not a bad result by any means, but one can't help thinking he should have finished higher.
Kris Meeke, in his usual self-effacing way, drove the rally the way he needed to and seemed quietly pleased with the result - a fourth place and a bucket of points for his team's constructor championship hopes. Citroen overtook Hyundai by a single point and I suspect that the celebrations and relief at the Citroen after-match function were mightily enjoyed. Kris can be happy with his efforts in Corsica.
Yet again, Hayden Paddon and co-driver John Kennard finished a rally as the highest-placed Hyundai crew, which wouldn't be an issue if it weren't for the fact that he's the third-ranked driver in the Korean team, and mostly unable to contribute constructor points. It's difficult to avoid concluding that the Hyundai squad will be re-shuffled next season. The thing that energed most clearly about Paddon during the Tour de Corse, is that his self-analysis and commitment are exceeded only by his ability to continually improve. That is a rare and precious gift, and the WRC team bosses will be in no doubt about what that means for the future!
Sordo drove a fine rally and did his reputation no harm at all with his competitiveness and focus. It was only a puncture that prevented his challenging for a podium, and the Spaniard will have cemented his tarmac role in the Hyundai team for next season. The superb efforts on the gravel in Australia have elevated his stocks in the eyes of many as well. However, the same cannot be said for Hyundai lead driver Thierry Neuville. Thierry has finally admitted that his driving has not been up to the standard his role in the team demands and his disappointing season so far has harmed his reputation and his opportunities. He needs to excel in Spain or I fear for his career in the WRC.
Ott Tanak, another who like Paddon lacks any competitive distance on tarmac, confessed early on that he was struggling to find confidence or rhythm on the Corsican stages. Although his times were sub-par for a driver with well recognised speed, he brought the Fiesta home in 10th, picking up a point along the way and storing the experience for the future. Right now, tarmac is not his friend, but he's a determined young man and we'll see an improvement in Spain for sure.
Pity that the Tour de Corse had more than 20% of its stage distance cancelled, because we could have had even more competitive drama to enjoy. But it was still enjoyable enough and the marathon format certainly didn't put a dampener on procedings - it was the storm that pulled off that trick.
Catch you all in Spain...
Monday, September 14, 2015
WRC '15 - Coffs and snivels?
As a dyed-in-the-wool Kiwi, sport, you can probably imagine how much it hurts to say this, but s'truth mate, the Aussies put on a hell of a show for their Coates Hire Rally of Australia this last weekend.
There was absolutely somethin' for everyone during three days of the closest-fought loose surface motorsport we've seen all bloody season. The drama was there even before shakedown, and it continued right up to the last moments of the power stage that saw Sébastien Ogier and Julien Ingrassia take their third WRC championship, and their Volkswagen team clinch the constructor's championship for the third year on the trot. Fair dinkum, Blue.
The top five drivers finished inside a one minute spread, something that hasn't happened since Dame Edna drove a Capri convertible. And it's the kind of result that suggests that despite the moans and bleats about road position, look-alike machinery and long-haul events, the formula bloody well works!
It was the best rally of the season to these eyes, despite any bias over the preferred finishing order.
So what made it the Sunday treat that it turned out to be? So many things that just didn't go according to the script. And it started early.
On recce day #1, Mads and Jonas took on a logging truck and lost. The Norwegian crew didn't make it to Shakedown and Citroen's apprentice team, "Stephane squared", got bumped into starting as #2 crew for the double chevron marque. Bet they didn't see that coming. (See what I did there? Huh, huh?... oh please yourselves).
Then, when the rally proper kicked off, Dani Sordo and Marc Marti, demoted to the second tier Motorsport N team usually inhabited by Hayden Paddon and John Kennard, took full advantage of their road position and won all of the first three stages. 'Oath, mate. And the Spanish-speaking fans worldwide were over the flamin' moon.
It wasn't to last, but for a glittering moment, Hyundai again led a WRC round. But not all the fans were delighted. Those that had trekked from the Eastern side of the ditch had their hearts set on another Hyundai driver leading the event - Hayden Paddon. Instead, Northern Irishman Kris Meeke took the leader's mantle from Sordo and the Citroen fans went wild.
Kris held the top position until the penultimate stage of the day, but it was SS8 where the tide turned and the snivels began. You see, the organisers had given in to the demands of the promoter to include a night stage for added, um - "gimmickry" springs to mind - although they might prefer "interest". Whichever, only the first two or three cars completed the stage without being hampered by hanging dust. So it was here that Citroen's Meeke lost time to his rivals and he was not a happy lad.
Of course, he wasn't alone in his moan about the dark and the dust - also fellow drivers Neuville and Tanak, to mention a couple, had harsh words for the organisers' choice of stage time, especially since there had been requests to drop that night stage before the event began. It wasn't rocket surgery that it was going to be an issue for both spectacle and safety, the drivers reasoned. So at the finish of SS8, Latvala led Meeke by two seconds while Ogier took fastest time.
Day two flickered into life with a nice breeze and brilliant sunshine, just the right formula for a Kiwi on a mission. Paddon took the win on the first two stages of the day, delighting the legions of Kiwi followers who probably felt they were robbed the previous day. Although the Hyundai crew showed they were serious, the times weren't quite enough to improve their fifth place. But they opened the gap to Tanak who was lurking like a goanna on steroids one place behind.
Latvala struggled with a 6th place on SS9 and handed the lead back to Meeke, the spot the Northern Irishman kept until SS11, losing it to the resurgent Ogier on SS12. Despite Meeke's best efforts, his less advantageous road position showed in his 4th best time and he slipped to third overall.
Sunday saw Ogier in awesome form. He won every one of the five stages, his advantage increasing from 5.1 seconds on SS13 to 12.3 seconds on the power stage. Quite an extraordinary display of driving, and the best possible way to win the rally, the 2015 championship and the constructors' championship. A privilege to watch. And a credit to the Rally Australia organisers that they broadcast Wedding Bells live on both runs through the stage.
So the event concluded, with emotions of joy, contentment, relief and disappointment depending on who you were. Naturally, SebO and his co-driver were in the first category but what of the others?
Jari-Matti Latvala seemed to vacillate between contentment and disappointment, understandably, with another great drive mostly but beaten by his teammate Ogier. He must be wondering how to catch a break, but the Finn will continue to fight for the win until the championship is over.
Kris Meeke's only mistake on this rally was his choice of tyres on day one and that was really more of a calculated risk, so he was chuffed to podium and relieved to get through the weekend without the issues of recent rallies. A great drive, but the sniveling after the night stage didn't endear him to fans, organisers or the FIA reps present.
Andreas Mikkelsen took it to his teammates and rivals with a fine performance, and it was only the uncharacteristic late check in to service and its 10 second penalty that stopped his charge for the third podium spot. Yet it's tempting to think that despite his pace, Andreas was in the disappointed category. It can't be long before he gets a win though.
Hayden Paddon finished fifth, fastest Hyundai by a long shot. Paddon admitted that his Friday morning all-softs tyre choice was the wrong one, suggesting that two hards would have made a positive difference. His charge for a podium was also hampered by differential issues affecting the handling of the #8 i20, problems that were corrected in service. The remainder of the rally, the Kiwi's times were competitive with stage wins on SS9 and SS10, and he finished less than a minute from Ogier's winning time after 300+ km of competitive stages. No ambiguity here - contentment from the Kiwi.
Ott Tanak struggled to get to grips with the slippery road surfaces of Coffs in this, his first shot at the round in a full-spec WRC car. Normally trading times with Paddon on the loose, Ott was noticeably off the pace for most of the event, and his own differential problems didn't help. SS4 and SS8 saw the Estonian drop to 8th overall. However, some spirited driving on SS9 got him third fastest time, and a second fastest on SS10, and he moved up to 6th, the position he held until the finish and some 43 seconds behind Paddon. A mixture of disappointment and contentment, I'd say.
Thierry Neuville commented at the end of the power stage that he was happy with his performance which at first glance might sound strange coming from the number one Hyundai driver who was beaten by the runt of the Hyundai litter by a significant 73 seconds. But he too had handling issues during the weekend and a worse road position than Paddon for the first two days, so perhaps in that light, it wasn't such a bad result. So maybe contentment works for Thierry. Not so sure how it feels for Michel though...
Dani Sordo kicked arse on day #1, with three stage wins on the trot. I can say with certainty that it was joy that he was feeling as he headed into SS4. And why not? Spectacular performance on his first ever run at Coffs. But reality began to bite from SS9 on, with rear brakes deserting the Spaniard and his golden run fading quickly away. Finally on SS12, his team leader Neuville passed him in the overall stakes and with team orders in play, Sordo was destined to remain where he was until the finish. From joy, then, it was a descent into disappointment. This experience will have given him confidence for next year though and he'll be a force.
Elvyn Evans is another whose emotions about Rally Australia will be unambiguous - disappointment all the way. The Welshman simply couldn't get to grips with the surfaces in either sense of the word. A spin and the resulting puncture effectively removed him from competition but he was upfront about his lack of rhythm even before that incident. Another event in what has been a sequence of disappointing results that Evans will want to forget, but he must relive to establish what went wrong and find a fix. M-Sport's boss was clearly unhappy with his protege and at times, Elvyn looked and sounded to be on the verge of tears. Not so much disappointed then, as devastated?
Stephane Lefebvre always had a big task ahead of him on this event; practically without preparation, borrowed car, helmets and overalls, partial pacenotes and all. And a head-on collision during recce. An inauspicious beginning to the youngster's gravel rally career. A consistent run of 8th, 9th and 10th place times ended with a broken suspension on SS8, effectively dropping the Frenchman out of the points. Happily for Citroen though, his 13th overall put him in 10th manufacturer placing so he gave his team a much-needed single point which kept the deficit to Hyundai as it was pre-rally. Contented.
So there it was in Oz. A really exciting round despite the sniveling from some and arguably the most dramatic of the season. Certainly the closest finish in decades. Now if the other teams can get their machines and crews a bit closer in performance to the all-conquering VW Polo WRC machines, it can only get better. Looking forward to it.
There was absolutely somethin' for everyone during three days of the closest-fought loose surface motorsport we've seen all bloody season. The drama was there even before shakedown, and it continued right up to the last moments of the power stage that saw Sébastien Ogier and Julien Ingrassia take their third WRC championship, and their Volkswagen team clinch the constructor's championship for the third year on the trot. Fair dinkum, Blue.
The top five drivers finished inside a one minute spread, something that hasn't happened since Dame Edna drove a Capri convertible. And it's the kind of result that suggests that despite the moans and bleats about road position, look-alike machinery and long-haul events, the formula bloody well works!
It was the best rally of the season to these eyes, despite any bias over the preferred finishing order.
So what made it the Sunday treat that it turned out to be? So many things that just didn't go according to the script. And it started early.
On recce day #1, Mads and Jonas took on a logging truck and lost. The Norwegian crew didn't make it to Shakedown and Citroen's apprentice team, "Stephane squared", got bumped into starting as #2 crew for the double chevron marque. Bet they didn't see that coming. (See what I did there? Huh, huh?... oh please yourselves).
Then, when the rally proper kicked off, Dani Sordo and Marc Marti, demoted to the second tier Motorsport N team usually inhabited by Hayden Paddon and John Kennard, took full advantage of their road position and won all of the first three stages. 'Oath, mate. And the Spanish-speaking fans worldwide were over the flamin' moon.
It wasn't to last, but for a glittering moment, Hyundai again led a WRC round. But not all the fans were delighted. Those that had trekked from the Eastern side of the ditch had their hearts set on another Hyundai driver leading the event - Hayden Paddon. Instead, Northern Irishman Kris Meeke took the leader's mantle from Sordo and the Citroen fans went wild.
Kris held the top position until the penultimate stage of the day, but it was SS8 where the tide turned and the snivels began. You see, the organisers had given in to the demands of the promoter to include a night stage for added, um - "gimmickry" springs to mind - although they might prefer "interest". Whichever, only the first two or three cars completed the stage without being hampered by hanging dust. So it was here that Citroen's Meeke lost time to his rivals and he was not a happy lad.
Of course, he wasn't alone in his moan about the dark and the dust - also fellow drivers Neuville and Tanak, to mention a couple, had harsh words for the organisers' choice of stage time, especially since there had been requests to drop that night stage before the event began. It wasn't rocket surgery that it was going to be an issue for both spectacle and safety, the drivers reasoned. So at the finish of SS8, Latvala led Meeke by two seconds while Ogier took fastest time.
Day two flickered into life with a nice breeze and brilliant sunshine, just the right formula for a Kiwi on a mission. Paddon took the win on the first two stages of the day, delighting the legions of Kiwi followers who probably felt they were robbed the previous day. Although the Hyundai crew showed they were serious, the times weren't quite enough to improve their fifth place. But they opened the gap to Tanak who was lurking like a goanna on steroids one place behind.
Latvala struggled with a 6th place on SS9 and handed the lead back to Meeke, the spot the Northern Irishman kept until SS11, losing it to the resurgent Ogier on SS12. Despite Meeke's best efforts, his less advantageous road position showed in his 4th best time and he slipped to third overall.
Sunday saw Ogier in awesome form. He won every one of the five stages, his advantage increasing from 5.1 seconds on SS13 to 12.3 seconds on the power stage. Quite an extraordinary display of driving, and the best possible way to win the rally, the 2015 championship and the constructors' championship. A privilege to watch. And a credit to the Rally Australia organisers that they broadcast Wedding Bells live on both runs through the stage.
So the event concluded, with emotions of joy, contentment, relief and disappointment depending on who you were. Naturally, SebO and his co-driver were in the first category but what of the others?
Jari-Matti Latvala seemed to vacillate between contentment and disappointment, understandably, with another great drive mostly but beaten by his teammate Ogier. He must be wondering how to catch a break, but the Finn will continue to fight for the win until the championship is over.
Kris Meeke's only mistake on this rally was his choice of tyres on day one and that was really more of a calculated risk, so he was chuffed to podium and relieved to get through the weekend without the issues of recent rallies. A great drive, but the sniveling after the night stage didn't endear him to fans, organisers or the FIA reps present.
Andreas Mikkelsen took it to his teammates and rivals with a fine performance, and it was only the uncharacteristic late check in to service and its 10 second penalty that stopped his charge for the third podium spot. Yet it's tempting to think that despite his pace, Andreas was in the disappointed category. It can't be long before he gets a win though.
Hayden Paddon finished fifth, fastest Hyundai by a long shot. Paddon admitted that his Friday morning all-softs tyre choice was the wrong one, suggesting that two hards would have made a positive difference. His charge for a podium was also hampered by differential issues affecting the handling of the #8 i20, problems that were corrected in service. The remainder of the rally, the Kiwi's times were competitive with stage wins on SS9 and SS10, and he finished less than a minute from Ogier's winning time after 300+ km of competitive stages. No ambiguity here - contentment from the Kiwi.
Ott Tanak struggled to get to grips with the slippery road surfaces of Coffs in this, his first shot at the round in a full-spec WRC car. Normally trading times with Paddon on the loose, Ott was noticeably off the pace for most of the event, and his own differential problems didn't help. SS4 and SS8 saw the Estonian drop to 8th overall. However, some spirited driving on SS9 got him third fastest time, and a second fastest on SS10, and he moved up to 6th, the position he held until the finish and some 43 seconds behind Paddon. A mixture of disappointment and contentment, I'd say.
Thierry Neuville commented at the end of the power stage that he was happy with his performance which at first glance might sound strange coming from the number one Hyundai driver who was beaten by the runt of the Hyundai litter by a significant 73 seconds. But he too had handling issues during the weekend and a worse road position than Paddon for the first two days, so perhaps in that light, it wasn't such a bad result. So maybe contentment works for Thierry. Not so sure how it feels for Michel though...
Dani Sordo kicked arse on day #1, with three stage wins on the trot. I can say with certainty that it was joy that he was feeling as he headed into SS4. And why not? Spectacular performance on his first ever run at Coffs. But reality began to bite from SS9 on, with rear brakes deserting the Spaniard and his golden run fading quickly away. Finally on SS12, his team leader Neuville passed him in the overall stakes and with team orders in play, Sordo was destined to remain where he was until the finish. From joy, then, it was a descent into disappointment. This experience will have given him confidence for next year though and he'll be a force.
Elvyn Evans is another whose emotions about Rally Australia will be unambiguous - disappointment all the way. The Welshman simply couldn't get to grips with the surfaces in either sense of the word. A spin and the resulting puncture effectively removed him from competition but he was upfront about his lack of rhythm even before that incident. Another event in what has been a sequence of disappointing results that Evans will want to forget, but he must relive to establish what went wrong and find a fix. M-Sport's boss was clearly unhappy with his protege and at times, Elvyn looked and sounded to be on the verge of tears. Not so much disappointed then, as devastated?
Stephane Lefebvre always had a big task ahead of him on this event; practically without preparation, borrowed car, helmets and overalls, partial pacenotes and all. And a head-on collision during recce. An inauspicious beginning to the youngster's gravel rally career. A consistent run of 8th, 9th and 10th place times ended with a broken suspension on SS8, effectively dropping the Frenchman out of the points. Happily for Citroen though, his 13th overall put him in 10th manufacturer placing so he gave his team a much-needed single point which kept the deficit to Hyundai as it was pre-rally. Contented.
So there it was in Oz. A really exciting round despite the sniveling from some and arguably the most dramatic of the season. Certainly the closest finish in decades. Now if the other teams can get their machines and crews a bit closer in performance to the all-conquering VW Polo WRC machines, it can only get better. Looking forward to it.
Thursday, August 27, 2015
WRC '15 - The championship gossip
Rallye Deutschland is over and the Volkswagen 1-2-3 finish was a triumph for the hometown heroes; Ogier, Latvala and Mikkelsen. After two bad years, this time the team got it right, much to the delight of the German fans, a well-deserved victory with the crews barely putting a foot wrong over the weekend. So a hearty congratulations for a job well done,
Fourth and fifth places went to Hyundai's tarmac experts Dani Sordo and Thierry Neuville, while Elfyn Evans for M-Sport beat out Citroen's Mads Ostberg for the next two spots. The top 10 roster was completed by Fiesta pilot Ott Tanak, Hyundai's Hayden Paddon and WRC debutant Stephane Lefebvre in a DS3 WRC.
That was probably the overall result that most expected prior to the event but it didn't diminish the excitement - for the first two days at least - and despite the usual smattering of errors, the result wasn't skewed significantly by them, unlike last year.
The round was made more interesting, as it happens, by some chatter on different topics that surfaced sporadically over the weekend.
Malcolm Wilson opens up to Becs from WRC Live Radio
Wilson's interview with Becs (@becsywecsy) during service revealed that he intends to shop for a superstar driver in '16 if the sponsorship money permits, Nueville again being mentioned in context. But if no injection of fresh funding arrives, he appears resigned to continue with Tanak and Evans.
Given the availability of out-of-contract possibilities in '16 - Meeke, Ostberg and Paddon - Wilson was asked to choose who he'd prefer. His choice was the Kiwi, Hayden Paddon, who has impressed the M-Sport honcho this year.
Of course, all else being equal and assuming availability, he confessed that he'd hire Ogier in a heartbeat if the money was there. Not a surprise, but with the Frenchman believed to be contracted with VW through 2016, not really likely.
However, if anybody will entice Ogier away from the German team, it will be the big-budget Toyota squad.
Neuville under scrutiny
In the lead-up to Rallye Deutschland, murmurings about the Hyundai team's dissatisfaction with its lead driver spilled out into the media, as covered in my previous post, but according to quotes attributed to team officials by Rallye Magazin, Thierry has fired back with a defence of his performance, not too subtly decrying the i20's inability to match the competition.
There seems little doubt that this generation Hyundai fails to reach the same performance levels of the VWs, and possibly could be under-performing against the Fords and Citroens as well but that doesn't explain Neuville's lack of pace relative to junior teammate, Paddon. The Belgian's answer to that was to suggest that it was due to risk taking by the Kiwi, citing his accident in Finland as proof.
It's difficult though to equate Paddon's colliding with an unseen rock while cutting and losing his steering, with the unforced driver errors and slower pace generally of the Belgian, a point made by Hyundai's Penasse and as shown by the data recorded from Neuville's i20.
When asked at a stage end about the disparity in performance between himself and Thierry on an earlier rally, Paddon offered the suggestion that his team's lead driver might perform better it he concentrated more on his own pace and not that of others. Ouch...
It'll be enlightening to see what difference there is in Neuville's relationship with his teammates after this fifth place result. With Australia moving the comfort advantage somewhat in Hayden's direction, the pressure on the Belgian ramps up once more.
And the Meeke may not inherit...
Let's get this out of the way - Kris is quick. After Ogier and Latvala, the Northern Irishman has shown a turn of speed over the year that confirms his place as a top-flight rally driver, so why then the doubts over his place at Citroen in 2016?
In a word, "errors". Tiny, seemingly inconsequential faux pas that should result in a few lost seconds and a blush of embarrassment yet so often end in retirement or so much time lost that the crew is taken out of competitive contention.
We can all see this, including the Citroen bosses. Why then the probation period that now applies to Kris? No, I won't attempt to answer this on Citroen's behalf. Who indeed can see inside the minds of men, for that is surely where the answer lies. We can all guess, but at this point - two thirds of the way through the probation period - the simple reality is that Meeke is batting two from two in strike-outs and that offers a grim prognosis for the Northern Irishman's tenure. Whatever Citroen's motivation for this course of action, the additional pressure on their driver is unlikely to create the environment to enable him to succeed.
At this point in time, it looks increasingly like Kris won't have a paid seat at the house of the double chevron next year. I hope he's in discussions with another team right now.
Lefebvre shines in the vines
On the first of two outings promised to the WRC car debutante for 2015, the young Citroen prodigy surprised everybody with a top ten finish, with some very competitive times shown along the way, not least being 2nd after Ogier on SS12. That sort of performance certainly gets people's attention and the WRC followers are cooing and twittering (literally) about it.
It's a promising start for the Frenchman, and given the propensity for Citroen to employ its countrymen preferentially within its ranks, the French marque will doubtless include Lefebvre in its squad for 2016. This begs the question of where he will slot in, with championship constructor points dictating two bankable drivers in the main team. So I'd expect Lefebvre to run on the B team for the first half of the year at least with perhaps a round or two of tarmac as a member of the A team.
But whatever 2015 brings Lefebvre, it's certain that he's in a good position to prove his talents. Another rising star is born in WRC competition.
Who is where in 2016?
Nobody but the individuals concerned and officers of the respective companies know for certain, but what follows represents the most likely scenarios for each entrant.
Volkswagen
#1 Ogier - Contract expires end of 2016
#2 Latvala - Contract expires end of 2016
#3 Mikkelsen - Contract expires end of 2017
Citroen
#1 ? - Contract expires end of 2016
#2 Ostberg - Contract expires end of 2016
#3 Lefebvre - Contract expires end of 2016
Hyundai
#1 Neuville - Contract expires end of 2016
#2 Sordo - Contract expires end of 2016
#3 Paddon - Contract undetermined
#4 Abbring - Contract expires end of 2016
M-Sport
#1 Evans - Contract expires end of 2016
#2 Tanak - Contract expires end of 2016
Toyota
#1 ? - Contract undetermined but probably a WRC2 test mule drive
#2 ? - Contract undetermined but probably a WRC2 test mule drive
Chinese whispers...
The rush to conclusion of the vexed China question continues to gather momentum (managed to get a fair few cliches in that preamble, eh?). Driven by the promoter's desire to increase the TV audience and aided and abetted by the constructors' desire to further develop their potential market shares in the Asian mega-nation, an agreement is apparently close to being inked.
The details have begun to leak as to where exactly and when, and 2016 is now the undisputed year for the return of the oriental event. As to the position on the calendar, that will be dictated to some extent by which current round is booted somewhat unceremoniously out of the championship. And the serious money is on Corsica becoming the sad loser.
There are a couple of clues in that change, the first being that the China round will be a tarmac one. It really has to be to keep the balance of tarmac-to-gravel roughly the same as it is now. There are some within the ruling body of our sport though who would prefer a 50:50 split, something that cannot really happen while there are an odd number of events on the calendar, but with Sweden being neither, it would be a close enough approximation if one more event went tarmac.
However that would mean one of the current gravel rounds would be told to take a hike. I'm putting my dolares on that being Argentina. So one wonders then which tarmac round would be included. And on that score, I'd be wagering Japan as the lucky recipient of a bright shiny new WRC round. Although I'm sure that Toyota's return to the WRC is *cough* entirely coincidental *cough*.
Rally New Zealand's return to the WRC is looking less likely by the day...
That #@$%^&! short last day!!!
I know I bang on about this, but I can't help myself. While the promoter muses about fiddling with this and that to "improve" the WRC for spectators and teams alike, one of the ways they can inject more excitement into every event is by ENSURING THAT THE RESULT ISN'T A FOREGONE CONCLUSION AT THE END OF DAY 2!
I mean, c'mon people... if there are insufficient stage kms remaining on Sunday to close the gap to the crew in front and to challenge for position on the timing board, then the final day is a farce. That scenario played out several times this year, including Rallye Deutschland, and the final day is an utter anticlimax. How is that improving the excitement of the sport?
That any of those in positions of responsibility for the WRC can believe for one second that broadcasting live an hour of rally drivers cruising to hold their places (and taking fewer risks than their grandmothers) on a so-called Power Stage can somehow magically morph into compelling television that drags the masses in and grows the sport in any way at all, shows how blind they are to the reality.
EVEN IF IT WAS BROADCAST IN PRIME TIME, THE LACK OF DRAMA WOULD MAKE PEOPLE CHANGE CHANNELS OR BORE THEM TO SLEEP!
Okay, I'll stop shouting now. The chimera that is this mistaken belief in the "One Hour TV Package", is just that. I'm as big a rally fan as anyone and I think the power stage is boring. And I know, yes know, that it's sucking the competition out of the third day, simply because it's taking away the possibility of the drivers catching their rivals within the remaining distance.
You motorsport journos and bloggers out there - it's time to make our voices heard. If we want exciting rallying right to the end of every round, then the third day should have the same average competitive distance as the previous two days. It's not flipping rocket surgery...
Kubica Korner
I'm not sure how Rallye Deutschland could have been more of a disaster for the Polish ace. The woes began with shakedown, which revealed the Fiesta's engine was broken, necessitating a complete engine change. The crew then suffered the ignominy of walking onto the ceremonial start ramp instead of driving, and copping a 5 minute penalty into the bargain.
Driver error on SS7 saw Kubica lose 5 more minutes regaining the road and removing a broken windscreen. The crew completed the day wearing safety goggles and looking a little like WW2 fighter pilots. The following day, Robert's intimate contact with a hinkelstein (a sticky-outy kerbstone thing that punctuates the roadside on the Panzerplatte stages) resulted in busted suspension.
Rally 2 on the final day was a trial, the Fiesta handling poorly, presumably as a consequence of the suspension damage previously mentioned. Probably an event the crew would rather forget. But he'll return for Corsica, having chosen to forego Rally Australia this time around.
Paddon's progress
Hayden might take issue with the sub heading to this section, considering his often harsh self appraisal when it comes to his driving. Day one saw the Kiwi keeping true to his pre-event planning by playing himself in to the unfamiliar surface. It's worth reminding people that Hayden's only prior tarmac experience in a WRC spec car was on RallyRACC Catalunya in 2014, an event where he finished 9th overall.
SS4 was Paddon's best effort for the day. He finished the stage in 6th place, beating Tanak, Ostberg, Evans and Neuville, finishing 7.6 seconds slower than stage winner Ogier - clearly a significant improvement over his performance on tarmac in Spain the previous year.
The second day's effort was understandably disappointing to the tarmac rookie when he was unable to get close enough to his teammates' times to feel any kind of progress was being made and his stage end comments showed that he was mystified at his lack of competitive pace, even though he had expected to be slower than Sordo and Neuville.
By the end of the day though, the data from his i20 revealed a subtle but performance-sapping turbo fault that had gone unsuspected and the New Zealander completed the day in a brighter frame of mind. With insufficient stage distance on Sunday to make any impact on Tanak who lay immediately in front of the Hyundai driver, Paddon wisely chose to defend his position over Lefebvre, taking no risks and improving the pacenotes for 2016.
Back on gravel for Rally Australia, Paddon is scoring points for his team in the #8 car while Sordo takes the 20 number and drives for Hyundai Motorsport N. The Kiwi expects to do well in Australia, his target a podium; his followers' hope, his first WRC win. Roll on Coff's Harbour.
Fourth and fifth places went to Hyundai's tarmac experts Dani Sordo and Thierry Neuville, while Elfyn Evans for M-Sport beat out Citroen's Mads Ostberg for the next two spots. The top 10 roster was completed by Fiesta pilot Ott Tanak, Hyundai's Hayden Paddon and WRC debutant Stephane Lefebvre in a DS3 WRC.
That was probably the overall result that most expected prior to the event but it didn't diminish the excitement - for the first two days at least - and despite the usual smattering of errors, the result wasn't skewed significantly by them, unlike last year.
The round was made more interesting, as it happens, by some chatter on different topics that surfaced sporadically over the weekend.
Malcolm Wilson opens up to Becs from WRC Live Radio
Wilson's interview with Becs (@becsywecsy) during service revealed that he intends to shop for a superstar driver in '16 if the sponsorship money permits, Nueville again being mentioned in context. But if no injection of fresh funding arrives, he appears resigned to continue with Tanak and Evans.
Given the availability of out-of-contract possibilities in '16 - Meeke, Ostberg and Paddon - Wilson was asked to choose who he'd prefer. His choice was the Kiwi, Hayden Paddon, who has impressed the M-Sport honcho this year.
Of course, all else being equal and assuming availability, he confessed that he'd hire Ogier in a heartbeat if the money was there. Not a surprise, but with the Frenchman believed to be contracted with VW through 2016, not really likely.
However, if anybody will entice Ogier away from the German team, it will be the big-budget Toyota squad.
Neuville under scrutiny
In the lead-up to Rallye Deutschland, murmurings about the Hyundai team's dissatisfaction with its lead driver spilled out into the media, as covered in my previous post, but according to quotes attributed to team officials by Rallye Magazin, Thierry has fired back with a defence of his performance, not too subtly decrying the i20's inability to match the competition.
There seems little doubt that this generation Hyundai fails to reach the same performance levels of the VWs, and possibly could be under-performing against the Fords and Citroens as well but that doesn't explain Neuville's lack of pace relative to junior teammate, Paddon. The Belgian's answer to that was to suggest that it was due to risk taking by the Kiwi, citing his accident in Finland as proof.
It's difficult though to equate Paddon's colliding with an unseen rock while cutting and losing his steering, with the unforced driver errors and slower pace generally of the Belgian, a point made by Hyundai's Penasse and as shown by the data recorded from Neuville's i20.
When asked at a stage end about the disparity in performance between himself and Thierry on an earlier rally, Paddon offered the suggestion that his team's lead driver might perform better it he concentrated more on his own pace and not that of others. Ouch...
It'll be enlightening to see what difference there is in Neuville's relationship with his teammates after this fifth place result. With Australia moving the comfort advantage somewhat in Hayden's direction, the pressure on the Belgian ramps up once more.
And the Meeke may not inherit...
Let's get this out of the way - Kris is quick. After Ogier and Latvala, the Northern Irishman has shown a turn of speed over the year that confirms his place as a top-flight rally driver, so why then the doubts over his place at Citroen in 2016?
In a word, "errors". Tiny, seemingly inconsequential faux pas that should result in a few lost seconds and a blush of embarrassment yet so often end in retirement or so much time lost that the crew is taken out of competitive contention.
We can all see this, including the Citroen bosses. Why then the probation period that now applies to Kris? No, I won't attempt to answer this on Citroen's behalf. Who indeed can see inside the minds of men, for that is surely where the answer lies. We can all guess, but at this point - two thirds of the way through the probation period - the simple reality is that Meeke is batting two from two in strike-outs and that offers a grim prognosis for the Northern Irishman's tenure. Whatever Citroen's motivation for this course of action, the additional pressure on their driver is unlikely to create the environment to enable him to succeed.
At this point in time, it looks increasingly like Kris won't have a paid seat at the house of the double chevron next year. I hope he's in discussions with another team right now.
Lefebvre shines in the vines
On the first of two outings promised to the WRC car debutante for 2015, the young Citroen prodigy surprised everybody with a top ten finish, with some very competitive times shown along the way, not least being 2nd after Ogier on SS12. That sort of performance certainly gets people's attention and the WRC followers are cooing and twittering (literally) about it.
It's a promising start for the Frenchman, and given the propensity for Citroen to employ its countrymen preferentially within its ranks, the French marque will doubtless include Lefebvre in its squad for 2016. This begs the question of where he will slot in, with championship constructor points dictating two bankable drivers in the main team. So I'd expect Lefebvre to run on the B team for the first half of the year at least with perhaps a round or two of tarmac as a member of the A team.
But whatever 2015 brings Lefebvre, it's certain that he's in a good position to prove his talents. Another rising star is born in WRC competition.
Who is where in 2016?
Nobody but the individuals concerned and officers of the respective companies know for certain, but what follows represents the most likely scenarios for each entrant.
Volkswagen
#1 Ogier - Contract expires end of 2016
#2 Latvala - Contract expires end of 2016
#3 Mikkelsen - Contract expires end of 2017
Citroen
#1 ? - Contract expires end of 2016
#2 Ostberg - Contract expires end of 2016
#3 Lefebvre - Contract expires end of 2016
Hyundai
#1 Neuville - Contract expires end of 2016
#2 Sordo - Contract expires end of 2016
#3 Paddon - Contract undetermined
#4 Abbring - Contract expires end of 2016
M-Sport
#1 Evans - Contract expires end of 2016
#2 Tanak - Contract expires end of 2016
Toyota
#1 ? - Contract undetermined but probably a WRC2 test mule drive
#2 ? - Contract undetermined but probably a WRC2 test mule drive
Chinese whispers...
The rush to conclusion of the vexed China question continues to gather momentum (managed to get a fair few cliches in that preamble, eh?). Driven by the promoter's desire to increase the TV audience and aided and abetted by the constructors' desire to further develop their potential market shares in the Asian mega-nation, an agreement is apparently close to being inked.
The details have begun to leak as to where exactly and when, and 2016 is now the undisputed year for the return of the oriental event. As to the position on the calendar, that will be dictated to some extent by which current round is booted somewhat unceremoniously out of the championship. And the serious money is on Corsica becoming the sad loser.
There are a couple of clues in that change, the first being that the China round will be a tarmac one. It really has to be to keep the balance of tarmac-to-gravel roughly the same as it is now. There are some within the ruling body of our sport though who would prefer a 50:50 split, something that cannot really happen while there are an odd number of events on the calendar, but with Sweden being neither, it would be a close enough approximation if one more event went tarmac.
However that would mean one of the current gravel rounds would be told to take a hike. I'm putting my dolares on that being Argentina. So one wonders then which tarmac round would be included. And on that score, I'd be wagering Japan as the lucky recipient of a bright shiny new WRC round. Although I'm sure that Toyota's return to the WRC is *cough* entirely coincidental *cough*.
Rally New Zealand's return to the WRC is looking less likely by the day...
That #@$%^&! short last day!!!
I know I bang on about this, but I can't help myself. While the promoter muses about fiddling with this and that to "improve" the WRC for spectators and teams alike, one of the ways they can inject more excitement into every event is by ENSURING THAT THE RESULT ISN'T A FOREGONE CONCLUSION AT THE END OF DAY 2!
I mean, c'mon people... if there are insufficient stage kms remaining on Sunday to close the gap to the crew in front and to challenge for position on the timing board, then the final day is a farce. That scenario played out several times this year, including Rallye Deutschland, and the final day is an utter anticlimax. How is that improving the excitement of the sport?
That any of those in positions of responsibility for the WRC can believe for one second that broadcasting live an hour of rally drivers cruising to hold their places (and taking fewer risks than their grandmothers) on a so-called Power Stage can somehow magically morph into compelling television that drags the masses in and grows the sport in any way at all, shows how blind they are to the reality.
EVEN IF IT WAS BROADCAST IN PRIME TIME, THE LACK OF DRAMA WOULD MAKE PEOPLE CHANGE CHANNELS OR BORE THEM TO SLEEP!
Okay, I'll stop shouting now. The chimera that is this mistaken belief in the "One Hour TV Package", is just that. I'm as big a rally fan as anyone and I think the power stage is boring. And I know, yes know, that it's sucking the competition out of the third day, simply because it's taking away the possibility of the drivers catching their rivals within the remaining distance.
You motorsport journos and bloggers out there - it's time to make our voices heard. If we want exciting rallying right to the end of every round, then the third day should have the same average competitive distance as the previous two days. It's not flipping rocket surgery...
Kubica Korner
I'm not sure how Rallye Deutschland could have been more of a disaster for the Polish ace. The woes began with shakedown, which revealed the Fiesta's engine was broken, necessitating a complete engine change. The crew then suffered the ignominy of walking onto the ceremonial start ramp instead of driving, and copping a 5 minute penalty into the bargain.
Driver error on SS7 saw Kubica lose 5 more minutes regaining the road and removing a broken windscreen. The crew completed the day wearing safety goggles and looking a little like WW2 fighter pilots. The following day, Robert's intimate contact with a hinkelstein (a sticky-outy kerbstone thing that punctuates the roadside on the Panzerplatte stages) resulted in busted suspension.
Rally 2 on the final day was a trial, the Fiesta handling poorly, presumably as a consequence of the suspension damage previously mentioned. Probably an event the crew would rather forget. But he'll return for Corsica, having chosen to forego Rally Australia this time around.
Paddon's progress
Hayden might take issue with the sub heading to this section, considering his often harsh self appraisal when it comes to his driving. Day one saw the Kiwi keeping true to his pre-event planning by playing himself in to the unfamiliar surface. It's worth reminding people that Hayden's only prior tarmac experience in a WRC spec car was on RallyRACC Catalunya in 2014, an event where he finished 9th overall.
SS4 was Paddon's best effort for the day. He finished the stage in 6th place, beating Tanak, Ostberg, Evans and Neuville, finishing 7.6 seconds slower than stage winner Ogier - clearly a significant improvement over his performance on tarmac in Spain the previous year.
The second day's effort was understandably disappointing to the tarmac rookie when he was unable to get close enough to his teammates' times to feel any kind of progress was being made and his stage end comments showed that he was mystified at his lack of competitive pace, even though he had expected to be slower than Sordo and Neuville.
By the end of the day though, the data from his i20 revealed a subtle but performance-sapping turbo fault that had gone unsuspected and the New Zealander completed the day in a brighter frame of mind. With insufficient stage distance on Sunday to make any impact on Tanak who lay immediately in front of the Hyundai driver, Paddon wisely chose to defend his position over Lefebvre, taking no risks and improving the pacenotes for 2016.
Back on gravel for Rally Australia, Paddon is scoring points for his team in the #8 car while Sordo takes the 20 number and drives for Hyundai Motorsport N. The Kiwi expects to do well in Australia, his target a podium; his followers' hope, his first WRC win. Roll on Coff's Harbour.
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