WRC '16 - The Half Time Entertainment

The 2016 WRC has been quite the game so far, looking quite unlike the previous three years in some ways, yet sounding comfortably familiar in others. There have been the usual mix of outstanding individual performances and own goals. Intra-team sniping and unexpected empathy. Astonishing success and epic fails. And as the 2017 season with its changes and challenges heaves into view, this is as good a time as any to cover off a few of the highs, lows and the head-scratchingly unexpected. So let's have at it...

Six Different Winners In Seven Rounds
Finally the tedium of seeing a single marque and a single driver in the "Win" column virtually every round has gone. Regardless of your particular preferences for driver or make, you must still agree that 2016 has been a pleasant departure from the predictability of the past 12 years.

So far we have seen two wins from Ogier, and one win each from Latvala, Meeke, Paddon, Neuville and Mikkelsen. And while the main VW team has three wins to its credit over the two wins from the Hyundai #2 team, Citroen's semi-works effort and the VW2 team victory, the appearance of some machinery sans the VW logo in the winner's circle generates hope that this season will end a lot closer than we've seen for a very long time. Gotta be good for the sport

Way To Push Privateers Out Of The Sport
Ignoring the weirdness surrounding the stewards' decision to penalise Martin Prokop for a gearbox seal infringement which had been present on earlier events (mainly choosing to ignore said weirdness because Martin had already announced his intention to pull back from the WRC to go play in the Dakar and indulge in other pastimes, so it was already moot and the penalty was overturned anyway), the proposed 2017 season regulation that will ban most if not all "gentlemen drivers" from piloting the new-spec cars, is seen by most as a given.

If a privateer team such as Bertelli's fuckmatie squad cannot get their hands on the same spec vehicle as their opposition, they'll have two thirds of three fifths of stuff-all chance of being in the match at all. The FIA/WRC have subsequently let it be known that they're considering imposing their restriction on a case-by-case basis, rather than a blanket ban.

However, without a so-called "Super Licence" style qualification programme in place, the ad-hoc nature of the WRC's proposed regime seems to invite potential unfairness and cronyism. Let's hope they see the merit in a more formal qualification plan if they confirm the implementation of the pseudo-ban.

The '17-Spec Cars Will Be Deadly In The Wrong Hands?
Apparently so.

Yes, you could be forgiven for thinking that surely that also applies to the '16 spec weapons (which mysteriously avoid being banned from privateer use). And you would be correct. Presumably then, you'll be even more dead after mishandling your 2017-spec WRC car, than with the 2016 jobbie. Even though the aero packages, track enhancements and electronic centre diffs of next season's models are expected to make the beasts easier to drive at pace than the current versions.

The vexed question of how the galactically less-skilled WRC2 bods will bridge the newly-embiggerated gap to '17-spec divinity, has forced the WRC steering committee to consider yet another class of competition, this time between WRC2 and WRC, (WRC2+ maybe? Or WRC Minus?) using all the pre-'17 spec WR Car cast-offs that the constructors no longer want or need. Hmmm... not sure that's going to appeal to the likes of VW and Hyundai.

Whatever they decide, the whole notion of the 2017-spec cars being death-traps for anyone but the WRC elite, smacks of bovine effluent. The regs as revealed thus far suggest a measured increase in performance rather than a return to Group B arms-race lunacy.

Can you say "overreaction"?

Jut Like That Old Time Rock 'n Roll
Jari-Matti Latvala looked for all money like he had Argentina in the bag on the Saturday with a demonstration of pace that reminded the unbiased observer of the JML of old. A pity then that the nearly-irresistable force that is the VW Polo R WRC met the immovable object of a largish piece of bedrock in the Finn's driving line with the result that the Polo lost that bout and JM-L lost the rally.

The car's front right strut was smacked upward, piercing the top-mount and bonnet, and destroying the Polo's steering. The spectacular rolls that followed finished the job for the unfortunate crew. Up to that point, he was a shoe-in for the top spot, but instead of scoring his second victory of the season, he was out and history records that Paddon took his first ever WRC win. It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good, as my Mum would say.

Following his Argentina victory, Paddon was in buoyant mood for Portugal, setting quick times and looking strong for a good placing. Unfortunately for the Kiwi, on the second running of Ponte de Lima, his pace was his undoing. Unknown to the WRC contenders, following the first loop, a large hole had opened up on the racing line. This menace was obscured until the drivers were upon it, so all the leading WRC cars were at risk and each one in turn had a moment.

In Paddon's case, his greater speed launched the i20 through the air and into collision with the raised rockface on the inside edge of the road. The impact spun the Hyundai around and it exited the track backwards down a bank, flipping before landing back on its wheels.

The crew evacuated the car just in time to avoid being immolated in a subsequent fire ignited by the i20's hot exhaust, and the Hyundai was totally burnt out. A very big consequence for what was really a tiny misstep. Ott Tanak had the same experience with a very similar result, although with the help of the Kiwi crew, spectators and marshalls, they saved the Fiesta from the flames. Only Mads Ostberg's slightly slower pace had prevented his demise at the same spot.

Tanak was lucky that his Fiesta RS WRC survived, but his luck took a turn for the worse two events later in Poland while leading the rally by 18 seconds over Andreas Mikkelsen. With just two stages left, a puncture robbed him of his first win at the WRC top level, a victory that all who saw his performance agreed would have been a just reward for an outstanding drive over the rally's three days.

One can but commiserate with the Estonian and his DMACK team that they came so close. And M-Sport's Malcolm Wilson must have been gutted in missing out on the Fiesta's first rally win since 2012, a result that the Cumbrian firm sorely needs. At least the pace Tanak showed in Poland will give them great heart for a decent placing in the similar conditions of Finland.

The Resurrection Of Thierry Neuville
The Belgian has seen his fortunes change for the better as the season has progressed and the Hyundai squad has accordingly reaped the benefits of his improved performance. Especially as far as the Motorsport N team is concerned.

So far, both wins for the Korean manufacturer have been by the #20 entry, which, against expectations, have given the N team a healthy points boost. Not what M. Nandan would have preferred, I'm sure, but the same applies to Mikkelsen's win for the VW second team so not so disadvantageous as it seems at first glance.

So far this season, Neuville has bagged 61 points, currently sitting in 7th place which you might have thought unlikely viewing his performances at the conclusion of the 2015 season. So what's changed? According to Thierry, they've finally given him a competitive car.

A mechanical glitch here and there, a wee fuel miscalculation and the occasional less than perfect tyre choice have all conspired to disguise quite how much the Belgian has improved in 2016, but improve he did. A first, a third, a fourth and a sixth all contributing to his renaissance in the World Rally Championship.

At the half-time drinks break, Thierry has shown that he's going to challenge the leaders in the second half. A new, more positive attitude, a faster car, a boost in confidence and the desire to improve his value for the silly season approaching have come together to make him more competitive, more results-focused than we've seen for a while.

Whether or not Thierry is doing this with the team in mind, the benefits to Hyundai Motorsport GMBH will be tangible. But will he stay with the team for another three years? Doubtful. Particularly because much interest has already been expressed by the other teams toward the Belgian and he's heading into the prime years where he'll command the highest salary.

Still, you never know - Hyundai is serious about their WRC ambitions and they're well-funded, so in a bidding war they will be competitive. If they believe their future requires Neuville, then don't count them out. But my gut tells me that the rocky road that is the Hyundai/Neuville relationship has seen too much ego puncturing to navigate easily. We'll know in just a few weeks time, I think...

The Silly Season Arrives Early This Year
So having touched on the topic of factory seats, now seems as good a time as any to take a deeper look. Let's start with VW - because they're the easiest.

Ogier, Latvala and Mikkelsen are all confirmed as driving for Volkswagen Motorsport in 2017. Whether the rules mandate a three car team or the current two-team structure, there will be no driver changes for next season.

However, VW team boss Capito has suggested that their World Champion might retire from the sport should the start order not be changed so that the Frenchman is no longer disadvantaged. Unlikely, given that changes are mooted, and Ogier still has unfinished business in the WRC. But good for talking points...

Hyundai has yet to finalise their lineup for 2017. Paddon is contracted to the end of 2018, Sordo has signed anew until the end of 2018 but Neuville has yet to commit. Hyundai boss Nandan has let it be known that his preference is to have the same crews as for the past two years, meaning Thierry is welcome to remain, but it's up to the Belgian to choose his home for the next two seasons.

Right now, the possibilities are for Citroen and Hyundai to provide berths but there's an admittedly faint possibility that M-Sport could also be in the frame. Toyota-Gazoo looks unlikely at this point in time though.

My bet? Neuville will join Meeke at Citroen. We shall have to wait and see...

Citroen has been adamant that they won't be running a third car in their 2017 campaign. With Meeke confirmed for 2017 and 2018, there will be just a single space for three prospective candidates for the second seat. Neuville, as mentioned, LeFebvre or Breen.

Breen is seen as a bit of an outside chance, talented but not yet a sure bet. Being French, LeFebvre is a favourite to score a place in the French squad - in addition to his speed, the Frenchman has the inside running due to the historical preference by Citroen to promote their countrymen.

If Neuville bags the second drive though, it's not at all unlikely that PH would run a semi-works team for LeFebvre, and perhaps even another car for Breen.

TMR-Gazoo is the big mystery. Here are the drivers who won't be in the 2017 team:
Loeb. Petter Solberg. Mads Ostberg. Thierry Neuville. So, besides Juho Hanninen, Makinen's current favourite, who else might headline the Toyota team's efforts in 2017? So far, the probables seem to be from a trio of talented newcomers to the WRC; Suninen,
Lappi and Tidemund.

Who'll get the seats? It's a coin-flip I'm afraid.

And last, but never to be counted out, M-Sport is developing a 2017 spec car based on the yet-to-be-released 2017 model-year Fiesta. So don't doubt for a moment that Wilson will enter at least two cars next season. But there's a catch...

DMACK tyres apparently approached M-Sport with a deal for next year. What form that deal takes is unknown but speculation is rife that in turn for M-Sport using DMACK's tyres exclusively, the tyre maker will fund a two-car WRC challenge in '17.

But this is where it gets complicated - both Ott Tanak and Elfyn Evans were dumped from M-Sport's 2015 main squad and were replaced by Mads Ostberg and Eric Camilli. It seems likely that the DMACK deal would require Tanak and Evans to take over the main team seats from Ostberg and Camilli, leaving both of those latter drivers either out of a job, or at best, in a second string M-Sport team. Not a happy circumstance for either driver.

But what if M-Sport doesn't go for the DMACK deal?

DMACK could run its own team again, this time with both Tanak and Evans, in whatever car they can negotiate. And that isn't necessarily a Ford. In fact, Citroen has the head start in development to be in a position to build six cars prior to the Monte - one each for Meeke, Neuville, Lefebvre, Breen, Tanak and Evans if they so wished.

There's no doubt that the Citroen Racing firm would be able to run three cars if it felt the need, and the semi-works PH Sport team could do the same. Or Citroen could stick to two cars while PH Sport could run a team with Tanak, Evans and Lefebvre.

Of course, DMACK have a history with M-Sport - Tanak in the Fiesta RS WRC and Evans in the R5 version - so it's entirely possible that they'd stick with the Cumbrian constructor. Probable, in fact. But so far it's certainly not a given.

Like I said, the silly season is early this year.

WRC '17 - Does it have to disappoint? Part 3...

In Part 2 of the 2017 season preview of the World Rally Championship, the new chassis regulations came under scrutiny with emphasis on wilder appearances and greater spectacle as a result of more radical aero devices and wider tracks.
So there's plenty of scope for a huge uplift in positivity about the championship. Isn't there?

The rally format fail

Yes, I know. I may have mentioned these things once before, briefly. But in a season preview, especially one that offers as much 2017 apparently does, you have to cover it all. So read on and mutter under your breath if you must. Or just skip to the "Start Order" section below.

That #@$%&*! Sunday half day

If we accept that the average WRC event should encompass roughly 300kms of competitive stage mileage - around 40% on day #1, 40% on day #2 and a piddly 20% on day #3 - then those precious three hundred kilometres should work as hard as possible, right? I mean, we should expect every single one of those kilometres to count, surely?

Ogier on Condor - credit: magallanesdeportes

So how is it that they don't?

WRC '16 - ¡Ay Caramba! in Mexico...

First points, first podium, first win for Jari-Matti in 2016

 The sun is going down over Guanajuato as I begin to type this, the dust has already settled, the post-rally fiesta has begun in earnest. And the man with the biggest grin is Jari-Matti Latvala. After two disastrous previous events where the Finn failed to score a solitary point, the win in Mexico has turned his fortunes around - with the second placing on the power stage, a nice little bonus. Latvala is back in the game.

He drove what is as close to a faultless rally as it's possible to humanly do, and he deserved the top podium step. Sébastian Ogier, coping as usual with road-sweeping duties, took as many risks as he was reasonably able to, but with Jari's optimal road position, it was always a tall order for the World Champion to beat the Finn. That needed mistakes from Latvala that for once in quite a while he simply didn't make. This was as close to the perfect drive as one could ask for and bodes well for his remaining performances in 2016.

WRC '16 - Mexico can't be as bad as 2015...

At least we hope not. The Guanajuato-based event in 2015 was, to be blunt, utter carnage. The list of those who crashed out on the first full day makes for depressing reading:

1: Ott Tanak
2; Hayden Paddon
3: Robert Kubica
4: Kris Meeke
5: Lorenzo Bertelli
6: Thierry Neuville
7: Benito Guerra

Way to hand Sébastian Ogier the rally on un plato, amigos. Where the World Champ should have been doing some heavy-duty road-sweeping on the morning of the second full day, instead he left that chore up to the miscreants comprising the start list above. The Frenchman thus benefitted big time from his 8th position through the stages, and despite his professed belief before the rally that he had absolutely no chance of winning in Mexico, he romped home. If you're interested in my analysis of last year's Rally Mexico, click here.

This year though, Hyundai have come to la fiesta dressed as if they mean to get a decent result. In the main team, newly-invigorated Thierry Neuville and the ever-reliable Dani Sordo will be ably supported by the sensational Hayden Paddon with his B team entry, all three drivers steering the evolution NGi20 model cars from the Korean constructor. Already, the greater performance of the new car is evident and barring mechanical issues, they should all apply some badly-needed pressure to the Volkswagen Polo R boys.

Kris Meeke, in his "gap year" guise, would have had no point-scoring pressure and thus would have been able to push right from the start, to go head-to-head with VW's Ogier in the semi-works Citroen DS3 WRC. This car is more or less in identical spec to last year's Mexican entrant, so Kris would tell you that the German team would have the advantage in hardware, but he'd also admit that his road position would cancel that out, and he'd be in no doubt that he was in with at least a podium shot - maybe the win. But of course, he's not entered, so that's a battle we'll have to watch on another day.

Mads finished runner-up last year, through profiting greatly from the mistakes of others it must be said, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he can equal the feat it he stays out of trouble again this year, as M-Sport's lead driver. In fact if things go well for him, you can't with hand on heart exclude the Norwegian from the top podium step. While questions may be raised about his outright speed versus SebO and Jari-Matti, Mads's consistency credentials are undoubted.

Having tasted the reservoir water on the previous Rally Mexico, Ott Tanak will be reluctant to repeat the experience, so it would be absolutely reasonable to expect a highly-focused performance from DMACK's new signing. He'll be running the same spec car as M-Sport's Ostberg and Camilli, so his speed on this event will likely be in the same ballpark as his Michelin-shod competitors.

But here's a wee wrinkle that might put el gato among the pigeons - the road order this year has its share of jokers. See below...

1: Ogier
2: Mikkelsen
3: Ostberg:
4: Paddon
5: Sordo
6: Tanak
7: Neuville
8: Latvala
9: Camilli
10: Prokop
11: Bertelli

Both Neuville and Latvala have a significant theoretical road position advantage over the first three on the road, perceived wisdom suggesting that the lower-ordered pair may threaten Ogier for victory in the event - we shall see it that turns out to be the case.

Despite all that, Sébastian Ogier is still odds-on favourite to take maximum points on the stages of Guanajuato, his blend of driving skill, racecraft and luck making his defeat improbable despite his road-sweeping duties. But a win isn't a given, regardless of what the commentators, fans and bloggers may believe, and Mexico might, just might, give us a result that turns this championship on its head.

And no matter who you support, that wouldn't be a bad thing at all.

WRC '16 - Does road position really matter?

World Champion Sébastian Ogier has made his feelings on road position clear. He doesn't like the current rule implementation one bit. Why? Because on some events, he feels disadvantaged, running as he does as Car #1 on every rally these days.

For those who aren't familiar with the rule, suffice to say that the start order of the Priority One (P1) drivers is determined by their current championship rank. So when Rally Mexico begins, the following order will apply:
1: S Ogier
2: A Mikkelsen
3: M Ostberg
4: H Paddon
5: D Sordo
...etc...

Current regulations dictate that Championship Order will apply to an event's Thursday (assuming the organisers have competition scheduled on the Thursday - not a given), Friday and Saturday. Sunday, however, uses a reverse order start, where competitors not competing under Rally 2 line up with the car lowest in classification rank first off the line, through to the highest-classified driver, who starts last of the P1 competitors not running under Rally 2.

Now we've got that out of the way, onto the ramifications of the rule.

The WRC is made up of mostly gravel-based events - Mexico, Argentina, Portugal, Italy, Poland, Finland, Wales and Australia.

There are four rounds based on sealed roads - Monte Carlo, Germany, China and France.

Spain also fits the "sealed surface" mold for the most part, although its first day traditionally has a mix of gravel stages and gravel/tarmac stages, so it doesn't fit quite so neatly into the other categories, but since by far the bulk of its competitive mileage is on tarmac, I'd include Rally Spain in the "sealed" category personally.

And there's the most recent rally, Sweden, which runs on snow and ice, which is (and should be) in a category of its own.

What sticks in M. Ogier's craw, is that as Car #1, he has the displeasure of sweeping loose road metal from the gravel stages which costs him time to the crews behind him, and in order to mitigate that time loss, the Frenchman is under pressure to take greater risks than he would take otherwise.

Basically then, Sébastian sees himself as disadvantaged on eight of the WRC rounds. Nine if you include Spain, but under the circumstances, I don't see any compelling reason to do so and I'll stick with eight as the defining number of "disadvantage" rounds.

However, since most of the rounds repeat their stages in the afternoon, what was a disadvantage to Car #1 in the morning loop generally becomes an advantage in the afternoon loop, as the roads cut up from the passing of each car.

The opposite applies pretty much with the sealed stages, Car #1 having pristine surface to compete on in the morning loop with the surface becoming compromised with each passing car cutting and dragging mud, rocks, dirt and such onto the road. However, the condition of the road surface changes little when the loop is repeated, with everybody managing virtually the same conditions. So the balancing out that we see on the gravel stages doesn't really take place on the sealed ones.

And of course, the reverse order start positions on Sunday further level the playing field.

So at this point, rather than Car #1 (Ogier in this scenario) being disadvantaged, on balance it's neutral or perhaps a modest advantage. Sweden is the orphan here - when the Swedish rally is delivering its "normal" conditions, good depth of snow, snowbanks, temperatures below zero and so on, road position is more or less equal in terms of advantage. Even on the most recent "abnormal" Swedish round, Sébastian seemed to be in receipt of some very advantageous conditions as Car #1 although clearly not always. I'd say it was a wash.

One intersting wrinkle that has emerged from Rally Sweden though relates to another competitor entirely. Haydon Paddon has benefitted from his relatively low road position on past events, something that has not gone unnoticed by the WRC media, bloggers and fans alike, with an undercurrent of questions regarding Paddon's ability to compete without such benefit.

Indeed, Hayden himself has been quick to acknowledge road position and stage conditions as factors in his outstanding performances last season and now in 2016. As a result of his superb 2nd place in Sweden, Hayden currently has a championship classification of 4th, meaning he'll start Rallye Mexico just 3 cars behind the World Champion. So it will be educational to discover how competitive the Kiwi ace can be against Ogier, when his road position is no longer seen as a factor in his pace.

No pressure Hayden. All I can add is... "Roll on Mexico".

WRC'16 - Will Sweden be Paddon's maiden victory?

The Kiwi duo of Hayden Paddon and John Kennard are in good shape to realise the promise of their factory seats, by winning Rallye Sweden, round #2 of the WRC.

Enjoying their first outing in the Hyundai NGi20 WRC, the pair began their Swedish adventure with understandable caution given the low-speed incident that destroyed a wheel and any chance of doing well on the Monte Carlo Rally a couple of weeks ago.

Nevertheless, despite that setback and their unfamiliarity with the new car, the pairing set about getting to grips with the Scandanavian round, run in unusually warm and snow-deprived conditions. The lack of ice and snow on Friday's first three stages suited three-times world champ Sébastian Ogier well in his position as first on the road, the road surface degrading with each passing car, while Paddon, starting ninth, was forced to endure the slush from the eight previous drivers.

At the end of the morning loop then, Paddon found himself 45.7 seconds behind rally leader Ogier (also 21.5 seconds behind the "local" driver, second-placed Mikkelssen, and 9.4 seconds behind another "local", the fifth-placed Ostberg).

At this point, the fickle Scandanavian climate factored itself into the equation, and the afternoon loop was quite different. Snow had begun to fall and ambient temperatures dropped below zero, meaning that Ogier's road position advantage evaporated while Paddon's disadvantage did the same. Ogier was now sweeping the roads clear of snow, and each passing car contributed to further improving the grip for the following vehicles.

Paddon, and the driver immediately before him, Kris Meeke, saw benefits straight away and Meeke was fastest in the afternoon opener with Paddon only 5 seconds slower in second fastest. Meeke moved from 3rd into 2nd overall while Paddon climbed one place to 6th. Ogier, who admitted pushing hard, could do no better than 4th fastest although the Frenchman continued to hold the rally lead, 21 seconds in front of Kris.

SS8 saw Meeke's retirement caused by an impact with a hidden boulder, and Paddon took the stage win, 12.1 seconds faster than Ogier, 1.5 seconds quicker than Ostberg. In doing so, the New Zealand pairing also rocketed up the leader board from 6th to 2nd overall, 30.9 seconds behind the Frenchman.

By this time, having settled himself into the Hyundai's new rally weapon, Paddon's confidence was on the up and he showed just how much by scoring fastest time again on the final stage of the afternoon loop. This time, he beat the rally leader by 4 seconds, and topped Ostberg's effort by 6.7 seconds. Not too shabby considering the former's WRC Champion status and the latter's local knowledge and hugely greater experience with the Swedish conditions.

Hayden and John go into Saturday's leg holding just a tiny lead over the four drivers immediately behind him; Ostberg, Tanak, Sordo and Mikkelsen are all within 15.1 seconds of the Kiwis. Yet Paddon and co-driver Kennard have a real advantage as they tackle the second day. The weather forecast predicted an overnight snowfall of roughly 20cm, which would certainly make Ogier's job and that of the other front-runners more difficult as they clean the stages.

Paddon, on the other hand, should benefit from cleaner lines and as we saw on stages 7-9, the Kiwi was comfortable enough in the new car to make the most of the advantage offered. He took 18.8 seconds from Ogier in just three stages, 16.2 seconds from Ostberg on the same tests. It's certainly possible that Hayden could complete tomorrow's loop within striking distance of a podium top step.

He's been there before, of course, showing his class in Sardegna with a fine 2nd overall following an concerted battle with the World Champion and holding the rally lead for 15 special stages in the process. A momentary lapse and a spin eventually cost Paddon the lead, but he showed he has the guts as well as the talent to have earned that top step.

Without meaning to jinx the likeable Kiwi, maybe, just maybe, this will be his first WRC win. I'm so looking forward to Saturday's stages.