At least we hope not. The Guanajuato-based event in 2015 was, to be blunt, utter carnage. The list of those who crashed out on the first full day makes for depressing reading:
1: Ott Tanak
2; Hayden Paddon
3: Robert Kubica
4: Kris Meeke
5: Lorenzo Bertelli
6: Thierry Neuville
7: Benito Guerra
Way to hand Sébastian Ogier the rally on un plato, amigos. Where the World Champ should have been doing some heavy-duty road-sweeping on the morning of the second full day, instead he left that chore up to the miscreants comprising the start list above. The Frenchman thus benefitted big time from his 8th position through the stages, and despite his professed belief before the rally that he had absolutely no chance of winning in Mexico, he romped home. If you're interested in my analysis of last year's Rally Mexico, click here.
This year though, Hyundai have come to la fiesta dressed as if they mean to get a decent result. In the main team, newly-invigorated Thierry Neuville and the ever-reliable Dani Sordo will be ably supported by the sensational Hayden Paddon with his B team entry, all three drivers steering the evolution NGi20 model cars from the Korean constructor. Already, the greater performance of the new car is evident and barring mechanical issues, they should all apply some badly-needed pressure to the Volkswagen Polo R boys.
Kris Meeke, in his "gap year" guise, would have had no point-scoring pressure and thus would have been able to push right from the start, to go head-to-head with VW's Ogier in the semi-works Citroen DS3 WRC. This car is more or less in identical spec to last year's Mexican entrant, so Kris would tell you that the German team would have the advantage in hardware, but he'd also admit that his road position would cancel that out, and he'd be in no doubt that he was in with at least a podium shot - maybe the win. But of course, he's not entered, so that's a battle we'll have to watch on another day.
Mads finished runner-up last year, through profiting greatly from the mistakes of others it must be said, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he can equal the feat it he stays out of trouble again this year, as M-Sport's lead driver. In fact if things go well for him, you can't with hand on heart exclude the Norwegian from the top podium step. While questions may be raised about his outright speed versus SebO and Jari-Matti, Mads's consistency credentials are undoubted.
Having tasted the reservoir water on the previous Rally Mexico, Ott Tanak will be reluctant to repeat the experience, so it would be absolutely reasonable to expect a highly-focused performance from DMACK's new signing. He'll be running the same spec car as M-Sport's Ostberg and Camilli, so his speed on this event will likely be in the same ballpark as his Michelin-shod competitors.
But here's a wee wrinkle that might put el gato among the pigeons - the road order this year has its share of jokers. See below...
1: Ogier
2: Mikkelsen
3: Ostberg:
4: Paddon
5: Sordo
6: Tanak
7: Neuville
8: Latvala
9: Camilli
10: Prokop
11: Bertelli
Both Neuville and Latvala have a significant theoretical road position advantage over the first three on the road, perceived wisdom suggesting that the lower-ordered pair may threaten Ogier for victory in the event - we shall see it that turns out to be the case.
Despite all that, Sébastian Ogier is still odds-on favourite to take maximum points on the stages of Guanajuato, his blend of driving skill, racecraft and luck making his defeat improbable despite his road-sweeping duties. But a win isn't a given, regardless of what the commentators, fans and bloggers may believe, and Mexico might, just might, give us a result that turns this championship on its head.
And no matter who you support, that wouldn't be a bad thing at all.
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