Rallye Deutschland is over and the Volkswagen 1-2-3 finish was a triumph for the hometown heroes; Ogier, Latvala and Mikkelsen. After two bad years, this time the team got it right, much to the delight of the German fans, a well-deserved victory with the crews barely putting a foot wrong over the weekend. So a hearty congratulations for a job well done,
Fourth and fifth places went to Hyundai's tarmac experts Dani Sordo and Thierry Neuville, while Elfyn Evans for M-Sport beat out Citroen's Mads Ostberg for the next two spots. The top 10 roster was completed by Fiesta pilot Ott Tanak, Hyundai's Hayden Paddon and WRC debutant Stephane Lefebvre in a DS3 WRC.
That was probably the overall result that most expected prior to the event but it didn't diminish the excitement - for the first two days at least - and despite the usual smattering of errors, the result wasn't skewed significantly by them, unlike last year.
The round was made more interesting, as it happens, by some chatter on different topics that surfaced sporadically over the weekend.
Malcolm Wilson opens up to Becs from WRC Live Radio
Wilson's interview with Becs (@becsywecsy) during service revealed that he intends to shop for a superstar driver in '16 if the sponsorship money permits, Nueville again being mentioned in context. But if no injection of fresh funding arrives, he appears resigned to continue with Tanak and Evans.
Given the availability of out-of-contract possibilities in '16 - Meeke, Ostberg and Paddon - Wilson was asked to choose who he'd prefer. His choice was the Kiwi, Hayden Paddon, who has impressed the M-Sport honcho this year.
Of course, all else being equal and assuming availability, he confessed that he'd hire Ogier in a heartbeat if the money was there. Not a surprise, but with the Frenchman believed to be contracted with VW through 2016, not really likely.
However, if anybody will entice Ogier away from the German team, it will be the big-budget Toyota squad.
Neuville under scrutiny
In the lead-up to Rallye Deutschland, murmurings about the Hyundai team's dissatisfaction with its lead driver spilled out into the media, as covered in my previous post, but according to quotes attributed to team officials by Rallye Magazin, Thierry has fired back with a defence of his performance, not too subtly decrying the i20's inability to match the competition.
There seems little doubt that this generation Hyundai fails to reach the same performance levels of the VWs, and possibly could be under-performing against the Fords and Citroens as well but that doesn't explain Neuville's lack of pace relative to junior teammate, Paddon. The Belgian's answer to that was to suggest that it was due to risk taking by the Kiwi, citing his accident in Finland as proof.
It's difficult though to equate Paddon's colliding with an unseen rock while cutting and losing his steering, with the unforced driver errors and slower pace generally of the Belgian, a point made by Hyundai's Penasse and as shown by the data recorded from Neuville's i20.
When asked at a stage end about the disparity in performance between himself and Thierry on an earlier rally, Paddon offered the suggestion that his team's lead driver might perform better it he concentrated more on his own pace and not that of others. Ouch...
It'll be enlightening to see what difference there is in Neuville's relationship with his teammates after this fifth place result. With Australia moving the comfort advantage somewhat in Hayden's direction, the pressure on the Belgian ramps up once more.
And the Meeke may not inherit...
Let's get this out of the way - Kris is quick. After Ogier and Latvala, the Northern Irishman has shown a turn of speed over the year that confirms his place as a top-flight rally driver, so why then the doubts over his place at Citroen in 2016?
In a word, "errors". Tiny, seemingly inconsequential faux pas that should result in a few lost seconds and a blush of embarrassment yet so often end in retirement or so much time lost that the crew is taken out of competitive contention.
We can all see this, including the Citroen bosses. Why then the probation period that now applies to Kris? No, I won't attempt to answer this on Citroen's behalf. Who indeed can see inside the minds of men, for that is surely where the answer lies. We can all guess, but at this point - two thirds of the way through the probation period - the simple reality is that Meeke is batting two from two in strike-outs and that offers a grim prognosis for the Northern Irishman's tenure. Whatever Citroen's motivation for this course of action, the additional pressure on their driver is unlikely to create the environment to enable him to succeed.
At this point in time, it looks increasingly like Kris won't have a paid seat at the house of the double chevron next year. I hope he's in discussions with another team right now.
Lefebvre shines in the vines
On the first of two outings promised to the WRC car debutante for 2015, the young Citroen prodigy surprised everybody with a top ten finish, with some very competitive times shown along the way, not least being 2nd after Ogier on SS12. That sort of performance certainly gets people's attention and the WRC followers are cooing and twittering (literally) about it.
It's a promising start for the Frenchman, and given the propensity for Citroen to employ its countrymen preferentially within its ranks, the French marque will doubtless include Lefebvre in its squad for 2016. This begs the question of where he will slot in, with championship constructor points dictating two bankable drivers in the main team. So I'd expect Lefebvre to run on the B team for the first half of the year at least with perhaps a round or two of tarmac as a member of the A team.
But whatever 2015 brings Lefebvre, it's certain that he's in a good position to prove his talents. Another rising star is born in WRC competition.
Who is where in 2016?
Nobody but the individuals concerned and officers of the respective companies know for certain, but what follows represents the most likely scenarios for each entrant.
Volkswagen
#1 Ogier - Contract expires end of 2016
#2 Latvala - Contract expires end of 2016
#3 Mikkelsen - Contract expires end of 2017
Citroen
#1 ? - Contract expires end of 2016
#2 Ostberg - Contract expires end of 2016
#3 Lefebvre - Contract expires end of 2016
Hyundai
#1 Neuville - Contract expires end of 2016
#2 Sordo - Contract expires end of 2016
#3 Paddon - Contract undetermined
#4 Abbring - Contract expires end of 2016
M-Sport
#1 Evans - Contract expires end of 2016
#2 Tanak - Contract expires end of 2016
Toyota
#1 ? - Contract undetermined but probably a WRC2 test mule drive
#2 ? - Contract undetermined but probably a WRC2 test mule drive
Chinese whispers...
The rush to conclusion of the vexed China question continues to gather momentum (managed to get a fair few cliches in that preamble, eh?). Driven by the promoter's desire to increase the TV audience and aided and abetted by the constructors' desire to further develop their potential market shares in the Asian mega-nation, an agreement is apparently close to being inked.
The details have begun to leak as to where exactly and when, and 2016 is now the undisputed year for the return of the oriental event. As to the position on the calendar, that will be dictated to some extent by which current round is booted somewhat unceremoniously out of the championship. And the serious money is on Corsica becoming the sad loser.
There are a couple of clues in that change, the first being that the China round will be a tarmac one. It really has to be to keep the balance of tarmac-to-gravel roughly the same as it is now. There are some within the ruling body of our sport though who would prefer a 50:50 split, something that cannot really happen while there are an odd number of events on the calendar, but with Sweden being neither, it would be a close enough approximation if one more event went tarmac.
However that would mean one of the current gravel rounds would be told to take a hike. I'm putting my dolares on that being Argentina. So one wonders then which tarmac round would be included. And on that score, I'd be wagering Japan as the lucky recipient of a bright shiny new WRC round. Although I'm sure that Toyota's return to the WRC is *cough* entirely coincidental *cough*.
Rally New Zealand's return to the WRC is looking less likely by the day...
That #@$%^&! short last day!!!
I know I bang on about this, but I can't help myself. While the promoter muses about fiddling with this and that to "improve" the WRC for spectators and teams alike, one of the ways they can inject more excitement into every event is by ENSURING THAT THE RESULT ISN'T A FOREGONE CONCLUSION AT THE END OF DAY 2!
I mean, c'mon people... if there are insufficient stage kms remaining on Sunday to close the gap to the crew in front and to challenge for position on the timing board, then the final day is a farce. That scenario played out several times this year, including Rallye Deutschland, and the final day is an utter anticlimax. How is that improving the excitement of the sport?
That any of those in positions of responsibility for the WRC can believe for one second that broadcasting live an hour of rally drivers cruising to hold their places (and taking fewer risks than their grandmothers) on a so-called Power Stage can somehow magically morph into compelling television that drags the masses in and grows the sport in any way at all, shows how blind they are to the reality.
EVEN IF IT WAS BROADCAST IN PRIME TIME, THE LACK OF DRAMA WOULD MAKE PEOPLE CHANGE CHANNELS OR BORE THEM TO SLEEP!
Okay, I'll stop shouting now. The chimera that is this mistaken belief in the "One Hour TV Package", is just that. I'm as big a rally fan as anyone and I think the power stage is boring. And I know, yes know, that it's sucking the competition out of the third day, simply because it's taking away the possibility of the drivers catching their rivals within the remaining distance.
You motorsport journos and bloggers out there - it's time to make our voices heard. If we want exciting rallying right to the end of every round, then the third day should have the same average competitive distance as the previous two days. It's not flipping rocket surgery...
Kubica Korner
I'm not sure how Rallye Deutschland could have been more of a disaster for the Polish ace. The woes began with shakedown, which revealed the Fiesta's engine was broken, necessitating a complete engine change. The crew then suffered the ignominy of walking onto the ceremonial start ramp instead of driving, and copping a 5 minute penalty into the bargain.
Driver error on SS7 saw Kubica lose 5 more minutes regaining the road and removing a broken windscreen. The crew completed the day wearing safety goggles and looking a little like WW2 fighter pilots. The following day, Robert's intimate contact with a hinkelstein (a sticky-outy kerbstone thing that punctuates the roadside on the Panzerplatte stages) resulted in busted suspension.
Rally 2 on the final day was a trial, the Fiesta handling poorly, presumably as a consequence of the suspension damage previously mentioned. Probably an event the crew would rather forget. But he'll return for Corsica, having chosen to forego Rally Australia this time around.
Paddon's progress
Hayden might take issue with the sub heading to this section, considering his often harsh self appraisal when it comes to his driving. Day one saw the Kiwi keeping true to his pre-event planning by playing himself in to the unfamiliar surface. It's worth reminding people that Hayden's only prior tarmac experience in a WRC spec car was on RallyRACC Catalunya in 2014, an event where he finished 9th overall.
SS4 was Paddon's best effort for the day. He finished the stage in 6th place, beating Tanak, Ostberg, Evans and Neuville, finishing 7.6 seconds slower than stage winner Ogier - clearly a significant improvement over his performance on tarmac in Spain the previous year.
The second day's effort was understandably disappointing to the tarmac rookie when he was unable to get close enough to his teammates' times to feel any kind of progress was being made and his stage end comments showed that he was mystified at his lack of competitive pace, even though he had expected to be slower than Sordo and Neuville.
By the end of the day though, the data from his i20 revealed a subtle but performance-sapping turbo fault that had gone unsuspected and the New Zealander completed the day in a brighter frame of mind. With insufficient stage distance on Sunday to make any impact on Tanak who lay immediately in front of the Hyundai driver, Paddon wisely chose to defend his position over Lefebvre, taking no risks and improving the pacenotes for 2016.
Back on gravel for Rally Australia, Paddon is scoring points for his team in the #8 car while Sordo takes the 20 number and drives for Hyundai Motorsport N. The Kiwi expects to do well in Australia, his target a podium; his followers' hope, his first WRC win. Roll on Coff's Harbour.
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