The announcement from Hyundai Motorsport that the season's final round will see Thierry Neuville being dropped from the #1 team into Paddon's usual slot in team #2 and in turn Paddon moving to replace the Belgian in the manufacturer points-scoring squad, has set tongues awagging.
It'll be the third such promotion for Paddon. He took over Sordo's i20 in Sweden while the Spaniard was out with injury, replaced Dani on the #1 team in Australia and now is certain to replace Thierry on RallyGB. In the Kiwi's defence, these moves are tactical decisions by the team, not some kind of palace coup by an ambitious pretender to the throne.
With the race for second in the manufacturers' standings so close - Hyundai trailing Citroen by just a single point after Corsica - the Korean team is gambling on Paddon's confidence and Sordo's consistent pace to tilt the balance back in their favour. Given the disappointing results Neuville has turned in over recent rallies, this tactical move shoudn't have been a surprise to anyone.
But it was. Regardless of the run of poor form by their lead driver, he is the nominated team #1, acknowledged by all the team bosses in the championship as a future champion, and openly discussed as a potential member of competitor teams. These guys know of what they speak, so I'm not inclined to disagree with their evaluations - Neuville is a valuable asset.
It's not only the teams who are scratching their heads over Thierry's performance woes this season, the media and blogosphere also offering their take on how and why the Belgian's 2015 has become the "annus horriblis" that it has, and quite a few have been keen to point out that he still has a 24 point lead in the drivers' championship over Sordo and 20 points over Paddon (although that's a little misleading since Sordo and Paddon have each started one round fewer than their team leader).
Since his third place finish in Sardinia, Neuville's results record has made for some dismal reading:
Poland - 6th
Finland - 4th
Germany - 5th
Australia - 7th
Corsica - 23rd
A glance over the Hyundai drivers' performances for the season to date show that Dani has been highest-placed i20 WRC driver four times, Hayden also four times and Thierry only three times. Even the Belgian's most ardent fans would admit that's not good enough for a driver of his potential and the salary he commands. He's contracted to Hyundai for 2016, so in theory at least, he will remain in the Korean squad, but the devil is in the details and who knows what clauses might invalidate that agreement.
Those wagging tongues mentioned earlier have suggested that Citroen has an interest in Neuville joining the French team in 2016, but the only realistic way that might happen would be if all parties were to sign on to that arrangement. But then the question would arise as to who would replace the Belgian for next season? Despite Paddon's stellar improvements this year, he wouldn't consider himself a candidate for lead driver in 2016. Sordo might be interested in the role, but is his pace on gravel sufficient to convince the team management?
Despite Hyundai's reluctance to officially announce their team line-up for the new year, at various times they have let slip the info - maybe by accident or maybe by design - and that appears to be to retain the status quo; Neuville in car #7, Dani and Hayden alternating car #8 and #20 and Abbring in car #10 for selected events. Will there be enough of the i20 evolution to go around? Initially, no. So the #2 team will continue with this year's model at least for the first few rallies.
But back to Thierry...
At the very least, Hyundai would have expected their star driver to be in the top four every rally but it clearly hasn't worked out that way. For reasons that only Neuville knows, he's suffering from a crisis of confidence. At least a part of that has to do with the delayed delivery of the 2016 model i20, something that he had been depending on to get closer to parity with the competition's machinery. A disappointment for him certainly, but in his position within the team, it's something that he should have dealt with, then refocused. He didn't, but RallyGB may be the place to remedy that.
Nevertheless, compared to other 'name' drivers in the championship, Thierry is not performing well; currently he sits 152 points behind Ogier, 74 points behind Latvala and 40 points in arrears of his good mate Mikkelsen. That fifth place is certainly not where his historical performances suggest he should be. Regardless of his lack of opportunity to score constructor points in Wales, Neuville can still score driver points, and with the pressure off, the team have opened the door for him to again show what he's capable of; to rekindle the career that had earlier shown so much promise.
And to prove himself worthy of the title Lead Driver.
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