WRC '16 - Paddon's year in perspective

The 2016 season in review

Monte Carlo

Hayden's first shot at the Monte was always going to be a learning experience and so it transpired. Surprisingly, SS2 saw him finish 4th fastest and fifth overall at that point, driving the 2015 version of the i20. It wasn't to last though - an icy bend caught him out on the first stage of day 2 and with broken suspension, he was left with a Rally 2 conclusion to the event, the remainder of the round becoming a learning opportunity for the crew. A harsh introduction to the classic event undoubtedly, but offering a glimpse of his pace on what was a very unfamiliar surface for the Kiwi.

Finished 25th


Sweden

His first competitive drive in the New Generation 2016 car brought Paddon a well-deserved 2nd overall. Although nominally helped by a lowly road position after his retirement on the previous round, he certainly made the most of it, keeping the pressure on the leader until the end. A promising sign for the remainder of the season.

Finished 2nd


Mexico

On his second visit to Mexico, Hayden was pumped for a great result. Sadly, his event was marred by a series of errors and mechanical woes that meant the Hyundai crew finished in 5th - not a bad result considering the set-backs encountered, but a disappointment that he felt keenly when he could have so easily have been on the podium again. When he was unencumbered by car problems, he was properly quick. 2017 in Mexico and Paddon will be targeting the win. And he's likely to get it.

Finished 5th


Argentina

As if to underscore the near-miss of Mexico, Hayden pulled off his first WRC win in Argentina. Fast all weekend, the Kiwi pushed rally leader Jari-Matti Latvala and withstood the constant pressure from World Champion Ogier. Then he put in an absolute blinder on the power stage to increase his lead over the fast-closing Frenchman and created a little bit of a legend into the bargain. It's not often that Ogier is caned on the power stage, especially when he's as close as he was to grabbing the win from Paddon. But history records that the Hyundai crew took the crown, and they well deserved their victory. The year ahead was looking very good indeed.

Finished 1st


Portugal

On an event where the New Zealander expected to do well, Portugal proved that in rallying, you never take anything for granted. Differential issues with his i20 had Paddon pushing very hard to stay competitive through the first day, and with the promise of a fix at service, he was confident that he'd come back from the disadvantage he was experiencing. Unbeknownst to the Kiwi, a large hole had opened up on the racing line before the second run through the Ponte de Lima stage. Although not the first to encounter the hole, Hayden's higher speed propelled the i20 into contact with an earth bank, which in turn launched the car off the road backwards, and rolling it once before the Hyundai settled back on its wheels. A bad result, for sure, but the ensuing blaze from dry vegetation on a red hot exhaust incinerated the car, destroying it completely. Ott Tanak suffered the same impacts and only narrowly escaped the same fate. From the high of Argentina, the Kiwi crew suffered the depths of despair in the space of a single round. Despite there being no culpability attached to the crew, the severity of the consequences were a confidence-undermining blow.

Did not finish


Italy

Just how important confidence is for good results was demonstrated graphically on the Italian round. Determined to make up for the disaster in Portugal, Paddon was pushing hard for a podium placing in Sardinia in a replacement NGi20 built from scratch in just two short weeks. So one can only begin to imagine Paddon's horror when he made a rare driving error that resulted in the car clipping a tree before slithering off a bank at high speed and into retirement. If his confidence had survived the Portugal incident intact, the same would not be true following the Sardinian mistake. There was nothing and no-one to blame but the driver, and it was clear that he was doing some serious soul-searching post-rally. But the season wasn't half way through, and there was plenty of time to make amends.

Did not finish


Poland

While never feeling comfortable at any point in the rally, Hayden's performance in Poland showed his evolving mental toughness, with a top three position throughout the event. Following two disastrous previous rallies, his relief was palpable and at the half-way mark, the crew were back on track to push for another win or two. Or at least more podiums, with favoured gravel-surface rounds ahead… Finland, GB and Australia, plus the mixed gravel/tarmac Spanish round still to come. After the disappointments of the DNFs they'd experienced, Poland's third place result was a welcome improvement and a boost in confidence for the Kiwis.

Finished 3rd


Finland

Hayden had expected to do well in Finland, a round that the Hyundai ace regards as his favourite after his home event. The super-fast flowing roads suit his driving style and he admits that he feels happiest when the speeds are higher and the technical sections are fewer. So it was a surprise to see his times being consistently below those of the competition - with the exception of his teammates. It appeared to be a grip issue for all three i20s and despite tweaks to both his driving style and the car, Paddon was unable to match the times of the fastest crews. In the end, he settled for what was for him a disappointing fifth place, but even with the problems he experienced, he was still just seven seconds shy of a podium at the finish. And there were still five rounds left in the season.

Finished 5th


Germany

Considering his acknowledged lack of familiarity and experience on tarmac, Paddon's fifth place was a suitable reward for his perseverance after an opening day fraught with spins, a puncture and a high-speed "moment" which set him back in the order. Day two's less squirrely approach promised a better result but Paddon took a gamble on his tyre choices which didn't return the expected dividend, and his progress suffered accordingly. A little experimenting with the car's set-up helped his performance on the final day and the Kiwi was relatively satisfied with the efforts on the unfamiliar German stages.

Finished 5th


France

Another tarmac event, another learning opportunity. Experimenting with both car set-up and his own driving styles, Paddon didn't really fire in Corsica, if "not firing" can be applied to a 6th place overall at the end of the round. Yet there can be little doubt that the Kiwi will have walked away from that event feeling that he "could have done better" as a report card might conclude. That would be a rather harsh summary though, with the notoriously tricky stages conspiring against his lack of knowledge of the event and his lack of stage distance on tarmac compared with his competitors. So in fairness, Corsica was a round that Hayden might well have finished at the bottom end of the top ten, yet still have been entitled to feeling pleased with himself. To finish 6th was a better result than it seemed at first glance. Expect the Kiwi to finish inside the top five in 2017.

Finished 6th


Spain

Day one in Spain was the time that Hayden had expected to push for a good position before the change to tarmac from the opening day's gravel surface. That didn't pan out. The anti-lag properties for the i20's turbocharger failed to materialize, costing the crew a bucket of time lost to their competitors. Once on tarmac, they were always going to be at a disadvantage to their opposition, so the opening leg was crucial to a competitive result. It showed then how much Paddon had improved on that paved surface, that at the end of Rally Spain, they held fourth overall against competition that had vastly more tarmac experience than the New Zealanders. Not a bad effort from them, and a clear pointer to better tarmac results next season.

Finished 4th


Great Britain

Another gravel round of the WRC offering Paddon the chance to shine on his favoured surface, Rally Great Britain turned out to be a darkish cloud on his horizon. With opportunities for a podium fast running out, the Hyundai driver really needed a good result here. But "good" is a relative term, and although he finished in fourth at the end of the event, it might as well have been tenth. Hayden really wanted, and needed, a podium finish to get his year back on track. But the wet, muddy, slippery tracks of Wales and England foiled his attempts to get to grips with the stages. Literally. He didn't miss third place by much but in the end, the narrowness of the failure didn't compensate for its presence on the score sheet. For once, Hayden simply had no answer to the conditions. Fourth overall is not a bad result for somebody who doesn't aspire to being world champion, but Paddon does and for that aspiration, fourth at Rally GB just wasn't up to it.

Finished 4th


Australia

Hayden's "home" event, Coffs-based Rally Australia should be top of Hayden's 'must-win' list. And it is. But 2016 had been a funny old year for the Kiwi and many of the opportunities that had been marked as goals to fulfill had not come to fruition. Beginning the Australian round, the final event of the WRC calendar, it was imperative that Hayden take the rally by the scruff on the neck and own it. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. Though it wasn't for want of trying. Pre-start, Paddon was confident and he carried that feeling into the opening day as evidenced by a tyre choice that included running hards on the front, a gamble that stood to gain the Kiwi a major advantage if it paid off. But it didn't, instead costing him some time and leaving him in fourth at day's end. By the end of the second day, he'd moved up to third and was a scant few seconds behind leader Ogier going into the final day. But a mistake on the only stage long enough for him to claw back time from second place and put a buffer between himself and fourth placed teammate Neuville saw him clout a bank and puncture. The time lost completing the stage on a shredded tyre (and mangled car) dropped him to fourth where he stayed to the end.

Finished 4th

Where does that leave us?

For Hayden and John, 2016 was year of highs and lows. It was a year of sublime skill, and of unforced errors, a mix of fortune and of misfortune. Of experiments made in an endless quest for improvement. Of gambles taken and of lessons learned.

As we head into 2017, Hayden has made it clear that his goals are for rally wins. Not a win here or there. He wants to fight for the win in every rally from now on - no excuses - so that in 2017, he will become totally WRC match-fit while earning valuable points for Hyundai Shell Mobis WRT toward the coveted manufacturer's crown.

And that in 2018, Hayden, John and Hyundai Shell Mobis WRT will all be world champions. That's one hell of a mission statement.

Has Hayden peaked?

It's a fair question, despite the year-by-year rapid improvements we're used to seeing from New Zealand's maverick rally ace. He's human, after all, and there's a limit to what humans can achieve even when their potential seems unlimited. This past 11 months have shown that he possesses the talent and commitment to be at the top table of world rallying, in spite of his having got there without the aid of the European talent nursery of abundant money and connections. But being at the top table and becoming World Champion are two entirely different things - just ask Jari-Matti. And Mads. And Mikko. And Dani. And…

That Hayden deserves his place at the top table surely cannot be disputed by now. Even with his acknowledged weaknesses on ice, slimy mud, snow and tarmac, his improved performances on those surfaces against his run in 2015 are obvious to all, and there's no evidence that he cannot continue to improve. Probably for years. Because that's the way he works. He is absolutely focused on a continued program of improvements - empirical gains that he, and we, can measure.

And you can bet that Hayden will be the first to announce that he's hit the wall, if and when that happens. But that's not on the cards in the near future.

Being at the top table, especially for an "outsider" such as Hayden and John from the antipodes, is a massive success in its own right. We sometimes forget that the young neophyte from Geraldine wasn't invited into that rarified clubhouse of European rallying. He had to push. And prod. And cajole. And sell himself, literally, to get through the door. And even after all that, it took the principal of a local motor vehicle importer to bridge the remaining gap between a local talent and the elite of European motorsport.

Hayden is now accepted as belonging among the brightest stars of world rallying, though it took a while and there was some resistance initially. But there's no consensus as to whether he has what it takes to be a World Champion. Just the quiet confidence of an unassuming young battler who isn't short of self-belief, and his family and friends. And of course, his fans. And they don't dismiss him easily.

WRC '16 - Thierry Cherry-Picking

It's been a couple of sleeps since my last blog post and with some free hours available for idle musing, I thought it time to stare at the tea-leaves once more.

With WRC Round #10 - the Tour de Corse - just a few days in the future, Ogier has three wins in the bag, Meeke has two, while Paddon, Neuville, and Latvala have one win apiece. I write Round #10 because of the cancelled China round (a total farce that I don't intend to waste any more heartbeats commenting further on).

Rallye Deutschland was notable for being Ogier's return to his winning ways. And for being conspicuously free of his moaning about start order. (Funny that...)

It was also notable for Neuville's continued good form. The Belgian climbed back from a somewhat tentative start to the season to a position where he looks once more the driver capable of delivering on his much-anticipated promise. Neck and neck with his Hyundai teammate Hayden Paddon for the third spot of the WRC Drivers' Championship, he's done his chances for a good few years of highly-paid employment no harm at all.

So what's this we're hearing about Thierry wanting just a single year signing, rather than a two or three year option? Makes no sense, right? Given the original publishing source quoted for this new snippet of Silly Season shenanigans, Motorsport Monday, we could perhaps be forgiven for questioning whether they possess the relevant cred for us to seriously consider the possibility of a one-year contract clause for Neuville.

But more curious things have occurred in the WRC before, so maybe a quick look at the whys and wherefores is in order. It's generally expected that soon Neuville and Matton will announce Thierry's role for 2017 as Citroen's #2 driver. If that doesn't happen, I swear I'll fall over in a dead faint. We shall see...

To begin with, it seems at first glance that this one-year business runs counter to the usual practice, which from a driver viewpoint usually involves getting some consistent income for as many seasons as practically possible in a top-tier team. In the real world, three years would seem to be the maximum number of seasons that a driver's management would consider prudent; two years being a more comfortable position given the ups and downs of the WRC and its inhabitants.

And while the contract length is often a closely guarded secret nowadays, there have been enough hints dropped around the service park to determine that the teams themselves favour multi-year deals. Which is why my initial reaction to the Motorsport Monday item was that it seemed odd. But having mulled it over, I think there's a possibility that the Neuville clause might actually fit developments.

And it's down to what appears to be happening in the VW camp. Or rather, what's not happening. Lead driver Ogier allegedly has a roll-over clause in his contract which in effect will extend his employment with the Wolfsburg Boys to the end of 2018, and Mikkelsen appears to have a similar deal. Neither driver will answer direct questions as to their prospects for '18 though both have referenced "years" when their contract announcements were made.

But Jari-Matti has not had anything to say recently regarding his contract extension and there's a distinct possibility that 2017 may be the Finn's last season with VW.

If this is so, and to be fair, that's a pretty big "if", then a young Belgian with a desire to enhance his World Championship prospects in what has been for the past three years the most-winning team in the WRC, might see that as an opportunity worth taking. And risking a shorter contract [with Citroen] in 2017 to facilitate it.

Of course, there's a downside to that strategy - he would be reducing his ability to negotiate terms as it would be obvious that he had gambled on getting the vacant VW seat, his options elsewhere limited as a result by the multi-year willingness of his competitors' contract positions. And it's also possible that Jari-Matti could close the door with a blinder of a season in 2017, which would have Thierry in a rather begging situation come that year's silly season.

But it could well be the gamble that's worth taking for the Belgian - he's not short of self-belief. And to be in the same team as his good mate Andreas Mikkelsen would be an added attraction.

However, all this is speculation. There may be no one-year contract clause at all. And J-ML could announce tomorrow that he's in receipt of a contract until 2018 or later which is certainly not beyond the realms of possibility.

In any case, we should know before Cataluña either way.

WRC '16 - The Half Time Entertainment

The 2016 WRC has been quite the game so far, looking quite unlike the previous three years in some ways, yet sounding comfortably familiar in others. There have been the usual mix of outstanding individual performances and own goals. Intra-team sniping and unexpected empathy. Astonishing success and epic fails. And as the 2017 season with its changes and challenges heaves into view, this is as good a time as any to cover off a few of the highs, lows and the head-scratchingly unexpected. So let's have at it...

Six Different Winners In Seven Rounds
Finally the tedium of seeing a single marque and a single driver in the "Win" column virtually every round has gone. Regardless of your particular preferences for driver or make, you must still agree that 2016 has been a pleasant departure from the predictability of the past 12 years.

So far we have seen two wins from Ogier, and one win each from Latvala, Meeke, Paddon, Neuville and Mikkelsen. And while the main VW team has three wins to its credit over the two wins from the Hyundai #2 team, Citroen's semi-works effort and the VW2 team victory, the appearance of some machinery sans the VW logo in the winner's circle generates hope that this season will end a lot closer than we've seen for a very long time. Gotta be good for the sport

Way To Push Privateers Out Of The Sport
Ignoring the weirdness surrounding the stewards' decision to penalise Martin Prokop for a gearbox seal infringement which had been present on earlier events (mainly choosing to ignore said weirdness because Martin had already announced his intention to pull back from the WRC to go play in the Dakar and indulge in other pastimes, so it was already moot and the penalty was overturned anyway), the proposed 2017 season regulation that will ban most if not all "gentlemen drivers" from piloting the new-spec cars, is seen by most as a given.

If a privateer team such as Bertelli's fuckmatie squad cannot get their hands on the same spec vehicle as their opposition, they'll have two thirds of three fifths of stuff-all chance of being in the match at all. The FIA/WRC have subsequently let it be known that they're considering imposing their restriction on a case-by-case basis, rather than a blanket ban.

However, without a so-called "Super Licence" style qualification programme in place, the ad-hoc nature of the WRC's proposed regime seems to invite potential unfairness and cronyism. Let's hope they see the merit in a more formal qualification plan if they confirm the implementation of the pseudo-ban.

The '17-Spec Cars Will Be Deadly In The Wrong Hands?
Apparently so.

Yes, you could be forgiven for thinking that surely that also applies to the '16 spec weapons (which mysteriously avoid being banned from privateer use). And you would be correct. Presumably then, you'll be even more dead after mishandling your 2017-spec WRC car, than with the 2016 jobbie. Even though the aero packages, track enhancements and electronic centre diffs of next season's models are expected to make the beasts easier to drive at pace than the current versions.

The vexed question of how the galactically less-skilled WRC2 bods will bridge the newly-embiggerated gap to '17-spec divinity, has forced the WRC steering committee to consider yet another class of competition, this time between WRC2 and WRC, (WRC2+ maybe? Or WRC Minus?) using all the pre-'17 spec WR Car cast-offs that the constructors no longer want or need. Hmmm... not sure that's going to appeal to the likes of VW and Hyundai.

Whatever they decide, the whole notion of the 2017-spec cars being death-traps for anyone but the WRC elite, smacks of bovine effluent. The regs as revealed thus far suggest a measured increase in performance rather than a return to Group B arms-race lunacy.

Can you say "overreaction"?

Jut Like That Old Time Rock 'n Roll
Jari-Matti Latvala looked for all money like he had Argentina in the bag on the Saturday with a demonstration of pace that reminded the unbiased observer of the JML of old. A pity then that the nearly-irresistable force that is the VW Polo R WRC met the immovable object of a largish piece of bedrock in the Finn's driving line with the result that the Polo lost that bout and JM-L lost the rally.

The car's front right strut was smacked upward, piercing the top-mount and bonnet, and destroying the Polo's steering. The spectacular rolls that followed finished the job for the unfortunate crew. Up to that point, he was a shoe-in for the top spot, but instead of scoring his second victory of the season, he was out and history records that Paddon took his first ever WRC win. It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good, as my Mum would say.

Following his Argentina victory, Paddon was in buoyant mood for Portugal, setting quick times and looking strong for a good placing. Unfortunately for the Kiwi, on the second running of Ponte de Lima, his pace was his undoing. Unknown to the WRC contenders, following the first loop, a large hole had opened up on the racing line. This menace was obscured until the drivers were upon it, so all the leading WRC cars were at risk and each one in turn had a moment.

In Paddon's case, his greater speed launched the i20 through the air and into collision with the raised rockface on the inside edge of the road. The impact spun the Hyundai around and it exited the track backwards down a bank, flipping before landing back on its wheels.

The crew evacuated the car just in time to avoid being immolated in a subsequent fire ignited by the i20's hot exhaust, and the Hyundai was totally burnt out. A very big consequence for what was really a tiny misstep. Ott Tanak had the same experience with a very similar result, although with the help of the Kiwi crew, spectators and marshalls, they saved the Fiesta from the flames. Only Mads Ostberg's slightly slower pace had prevented his demise at the same spot.

Tanak was lucky that his Fiesta RS WRC survived, but his luck took a turn for the worse two events later in Poland while leading the rally by 18 seconds over Andreas Mikkelsen. With just two stages left, a puncture robbed him of his first win at the WRC top level, a victory that all who saw his performance agreed would have been a just reward for an outstanding drive over the rally's three days.

One can but commiserate with the Estonian and his DMACK team that they came so close. And M-Sport's Malcolm Wilson must have been gutted in missing out on the Fiesta's first rally win since 2012, a result that the Cumbrian firm sorely needs. At least the pace Tanak showed in Poland will give them great heart for a decent placing in the similar conditions of Finland.

The Resurrection Of Thierry Neuville
The Belgian has seen his fortunes change for the better as the season has progressed and the Hyundai squad has accordingly reaped the benefits of his improved performance. Especially as far as the Motorsport N team is concerned.

So far, both wins for the Korean manufacturer have been by the #20 entry, which, against expectations, have given the N team a healthy points boost. Not what M. Nandan would have preferred, I'm sure, but the same applies to Mikkelsen's win for the VW second team so not so disadvantageous as it seems at first glance.

So far this season, Neuville has bagged 61 points, currently sitting in 7th place which you might have thought unlikely viewing his performances at the conclusion of the 2015 season. So what's changed? According to Thierry, they've finally given him a competitive car.

A mechanical glitch here and there, a wee fuel miscalculation and the occasional less than perfect tyre choice have all conspired to disguise quite how much the Belgian has improved in 2016, but improve he did. A first, a third, a fourth and a sixth all contributing to his renaissance in the World Rally Championship.

At the half-time drinks break, Thierry has shown that he's going to challenge the leaders in the second half. A new, more positive attitude, a faster car, a boost in confidence and the desire to improve his value for the silly season approaching have come together to make him more competitive, more results-focused than we've seen for a while.

Whether or not Thierry is doing this with the team in mind, the benefits to Hyundai Motorsport GMBH will be tangible. But will he stay with the team for another three years? Doubtful. Particularly because much interest has already been expressed by the other teams toward the Belgian and he's heading into the prime years where he'll command the highest salary.

Still, you never know - Hyundai is serious about their WRC ambitions and they're well-funded, so in a bidding war they will be competitive. If they believe their future requires Neuville, then don't count them out. But my gut tells me that the rocky road that is the Hyundai/Neuville relationship has seen too much ego puncturing to navigate easily. We'll know in just a few weeks time, I think...

The Silly Season Arrives Early This Year
So having touched on the topic of factory seats, now seems as good a time as any to take a deeper look. Let's start with VW - because they're the easiest.

Ogier, Latvala and Mikkelsen are all confirmed as driving for Volkswagen Motorsport in 2017. Whether the rules mandate a three car team or the current two-team structure, there will be no driver changes for next season.

However, VW team boss Capito has suggested that their World Champion might retire from the sport should the start order not be changed so that the Frenchman is no longer disadvantaged. Unlikely, given that changes are mooted, and Ogier still has unfinished business in the WRC. But good for talking points...

Hyundai has yet to finalise their lineup for 2017. Paddon is contracted to the end of 2018, Sordo has signed anew until the end of 2018 but Neuville has yet to commit. Hyundai boss Nandan has let it be known that his preference is to have the same crews as for the past two years, meaning Thierry is welcome to remain, but it's up to the Belgian to choose his home for the next two seasons.

Right now, the possibilities are for Citroen and Hyundai to provide berths but there's an admittedly faint possibility that M-Sport could also be in the frame. Toyota-Gazoo looks unlikely at this point in time though.

My bet? Neuville will join Meeke at Citroen. We shall have to wait and see...

Citroen has been adamant that they won't be running a third car in their 2017 campaign. With Meeke confirmed for 2017 and 2018, there will be just a single space for three prospective candidates for the second seat. Neuville, as mentioned, LeFebvre or Breen.

Breen is seen as a bit of an outside chance, talented but not yet a sure bet. Being French, LeFebvre is a favourite to score a place in the French squad - in addition to his speed, the Frenchman has the inside running due to the historical preference by Citroen to promote their countrymen.

If Neuville bags the second drive though, it's not at all unlikely that PH would run a semi-works team for LeFebvre, and perhaps even another car for Breen.

TMR-Gazoo is the big mystery. Here are the drivers who won't be in the 2017 team:
Loeb. Petter Solberg. Mads Ostberg. Thierry Neuville. So, besides Juho Hanninen, Makinen's current favourite, who else might headline the Toyota team's efforts in 2017? So far, the probables seem to be from a trio of talented newcomers to the WRC; Suninen,
Lappi and Tidemund.

Who'll get the seats? It's a coin-flip I'm afraid.

And last, but never to be counted out, M-Sport is developing a 2017 spec car based on the yet-to-be-released 2017 model-year Fiesta. So don't doubt for a moment that Wilson will enter at least two cars next season. But there's a catch...

DMACK tyres apparently approached M-Sport with a deal for next year. What form that deal takes is unknown but speculation is rife that in turn for M-Sport using DMACK's tyres exclusively, the tyre maker will fund a two-car WRC challenge in '17.

But this is where it gets complicated - both Ott Tanak and Elfyn Evans were dumped from M-Sport's 2015 main squad and were replaced by Mads Ostberg and Eric Camilli. It seems likely that the DMACK deal would require Tanak and Evans to take over the main team seats from Ostberg and Camilli, leaving both of those latter drivers either out of a job, or at best, in a second string M-Sport team. Not a happy circumstance for either driver.

But what if M-Sport doesn't go for the DMACK deal?

DMACK could run its own team again, this time with both Tanak and Evans, in whatever car they can negotiate. And that isn't necessarily a Ford. In fact, Citroen has the head start in development to be in a position to build six cars prior to the Monte - one each for Meeke, Neuville, Lefebvre, Breen, Tanak and Evans if they so wished.

There's no doubt that the Citroen Racing firm would be able to run three cars if it felt the need, and the semi-works PH Sport team could do the same. Or Citroen could stick to two cars while PH Sport could run a team with Tanak, Evans and Lefebvre.

Of course, DMACK have a history with M-Sport - Tanak in the Fiesta RS WRC and Evans in the R5 version - so it's entirely possible that they'd stick with the Cumbrian constructor. Probable, in fact. But so far it's certainly not a given.

Like I said, the silly season is early this year.

WRC '16 - A Mads Mystery

There's a universal adage that reads something like this...

"If you're not going forward, you're going backwards".

It's a truism that could have been written for Mads Ostberg. You see, the popular Norwegian driver has always been there or thereabouts when it comes to pace, with moments when he really looked the business behind the wheel of whatever rally weapon he happened to inhabit at that time. But the WRC doesn't stand still as clearly demonstrated in the results achieved by the current crop of talented stage-winners. It's not enough just to be quick - you have to be challenging for the stage win. Or the rally win.

Sadly, Mads isn't in that category. Despite his speed and consistency, Mads hasn't looked like a winner all season. Why is that? In a word, "stagnation". He has reached a plateau in his performances while most of his competition have improved. And there are also a clutch of guys whose experience and skills have yet to reach the rally-winner level, but who are already threatening to out-perform Mads in speed on a consistent basis.

That sounds really dire, I know, but is it as bad as it sounds? Well, that depends on Mads. This WRC ace thing needs more than natural ability and big cojones. It takes practice and an awful lot of hard work - just ask the Paddons, Breens, Evanses, Camillis, Tanaks and Mikkelsens (to name a few) of the WRC world. They're not sitting back, confident in their ability and expecting to be victorious. They're doing their utmost to improve - on every event.

Paddon is a classic example. Two seasons ago, he was seen as fortunate to have gained a foothold in the WRC, a surprisingly competent antipodean who punched above his weight and a bit of a David to virtually everybody else's Goliath. No longer.

The Kiwi's consistent and rapid gains in speed and skill have impressed every team boss in the WRC and the greater mass of the skeptical rally supporters worldwide. Yes, Hayden possesses the native talent to be competitive, but it's also due in large part to his unquenchable thirst to improve himself - to strive to be the best.

So he invests as much of his free time as he can in improving his skills. On tarmac, on gravel, in analysing conditions, in car set-up, learning from the performances of his rivals and probably most importantly, in being honest with himself as to his weaknesses and asking for help to overcome them. In a sport where ego is a huge component in motivation and success, the sort of self-analysis Paddon applies in his chosen career is key to the rate at which he has improved in his time in the WRC. Hard work trumps innate ability sometimes. And asking for help is rare at this level of competition.

But back to Mads - at the half-way point of the WRC season, the Norwegian's performance is neatly summed up by his place in the drivers' championship. Sixth overall compares poorly with the 3rd place he held after seven events last year. Yet the M-Sport lead driver has consistently voiced his satisfaction with his driving, despite the lacklustre times he's been posting. How can that be?

Mads has hinted at times that the Fiesta RS WRC is not capable of delivering more, that he has felt content with the performances he's putting in but the car is limiting the times they can achieve. Which may or may not have seemed a realistic interpretation until Rally Poland, where Ott Tanak, in a virtually identical vehicle, led the rally for three days, losing the victory only through time lost to a puncture and relegating the Estonian to second overall. But Tanak's performance across the event certainly undermines Mads's theory of the car being the limiting factor.

It's time for Mads to face the fact that he's slower because everybody else is now quicker. If he wants to get a factory seat in 2017, something that must be in serious doubt right now, then he will have to prove that this stagnation he's exhibiting is temporary and that he's capable of improving his own performance to once again match or better still, exceed, that of his peers. It's time for Mads to put in the required effort.

He's been a well-liked and respected competitor for ten plus years - it would be a shame to see him leave the World Rally Championship at this point in his career.

WRC '16 - Has the Polo lost its mojo?

Arguably the most successful single rally weapon the World Rally Championship has yet seen, it's finally looking like the VW Polo R WRC has met its match. Three and a half years of superiority is nothing to be sneezed at, mind you, so nobody should be shedding any tears for Wolfsburg's finest. It's just the "evolution" thing at work.

Taking nothing away from the VW drivers' own efforts, there's no doubt the Polo's superiority has contributed heavily to their successes, most notably Sebastian Ogier's outstanding results over the past three seasons. Three time World Champion, and looking likely to add to that total in 2016, Ogier and the Polo have proven to be almost unbeatable.

Almost... until now, that is.

Nearly half way through its first season, Hyundai's NGi20 has shown that, on gravel at least, it's a match for the Polo. Yes, it's had some teething issues with various components, weaknesses with steering/suspension elements being particularly notable, but the Korean manufacturer team learns fast, and the truncated initial development period for what is basically a one-year car, makes it seem all the more impressive that it's as competitive as it has shown itself to be.

This is not the place for muddying the waters with driver performances, an interesting topic in its own right and fodder for a future blog post no doubt - it's where we look dispassionately at the relative performances of the Polo versus its competition. And a look at the history of the VW contender paints a picture of a wunderkind who's seeing the sun set on its glory days. 2017 surely can't come soon enough for the Volkswagen team.

                     2013        2014        2015         2016

Wales           1:2:5        1:8           1:3:50        ------
Spain            1:2           1:2:7        1:2             ------
France          1:3:7        1:2:13      1:3:15        ------
Australia       1:4:6        1:2:3        1:2:4          ------
Germany      7:17          3:             1:2:3         ------
Finland         1:10:17    1:2:4         1:2             ------
Greece         1:4:10       ------         ------          ------
Argentina      2:3:8        1:2:4        17:            2:3:16
Portugal        1:3:6        1:4:14      1:2:3         2:3:6
Mexico          1:16         1:2:19      1:3:15       1:4:26
Sweden         1:4           1:2:6        1:3            2:3:16
Monte Carlo   2:            1:5:7        1:2:3         1:2
Poland           ------        1:2:5         1:2:5          ------

A quick summary of results can be expressed like this:
In their first year with the Polo R WRC, VW missed the top step just three times;
in their second year, they missed just once;
and last year, again on just the one occasion.

But so far in 2016, the team have managed just two wins from five starts - by their own astonishingly high standards, clearly a disappointing result. Hyundai, in the NGi20's development year, has so far matched the wins of the mighty VW team. And while it's still early days in the championship, the Korean competitor is looking every bit as likely on any round to grab the podium's top step as the German marque.

Ogier has made it known that development of the current Polo is at a standstill, with the team's efforts being poured into the 2017 spec car. That's no surprise, given the tightness of the time-frame until homologation, so we shouldn't expect the '16 Polo's performance to improve significantly, if at all, for the remainder of the year.

The Hyundai, on the other hand, has shown increased performance as the season progresses and with the Polish event about to take place, a round that should play to the NGi20's strengths, it would be a reckless punter who would bet against the possibility of a third top-step finish for one of the three Hyundais.

It's been said that Hyundai can't be capable of investing precious resources in further development of the one-year car when the 2017 version deadline is looming, but that thinking ignores the fact that the NGi20 is to a degree the real-world testing platform for the Alzenau team's next generation weapon - much of what has gone into this single-year evolution vehicle is new and destined to feature in the '17 car.

In Neuville, Paddon and Sordo, Hyundai's team boss Nandan has a driver resource that will be easily capable of parlaying the undoubtedly improved performance of the NGi20 WRC into further rally wins this year. It only remains to be seen how many more victories the team will accrue, and which driver(s) will get them.

WRC '17 - Does it have to disappoint? Part 3...

In Part 2 of the 2017 season preview of the World Rally Championship, the new chassis regulations came under scrutiny with emphasis on wilder appearances and greater spectacle as a result of more radical aero devices and wider tracks.
So there's plenty of scope for a huge uplift in positivity about the championship. Isn't there?

The rally format fail

Yes, I know. I may have mentioned these things once before, briefly. But in a season preview, especially one that offers as much 2017 apparently does, you have to cover it all. So read on and mutter under your breath if you must. Or just skip to the "Start Order" section below.

That #@$%&*! Sunday half day

If we accept that the average WRC event should encompass roughly 300kms of competitive stage mileage - around 40% on day #1, 40% on day #2 and a piddly 20% on day #3 - then those precious three hundred kilometres should work as hard as possible, right? I mean, we should expect every single one of those kilometres to count, surely?

Ogier on Condor - credit: magallanesdeportes

So how is it that they don't?

WRC '16 - Pondering Paddon...

I wrote this post at the end of Friday's action in Argentina. It's a draft, and before I had a chance to polish the wording a bit and stick a pic or two into the layout, events overtook the subject of the article.

In light of what eventually transpired, the predictive tone of the original has been lost a little - 20/20 hindsight could well have been applied, making the post irrelevant really. I had intended to shrug and delete it, but I decided, given how many others were seemingly thinking similar thoughts, to post it regardless.
I think maybe you'll enjoy it anyway...

Andy

The first full day of Rally Argentina is behind us and we're seeing trends forming, the most dominant being Volkswagen's consolidation of position at the head of the field. All three VW pilots are within the top five places.

This will come as no surprise at all to the reader, the sitution having a strongly familiar air about it. When was there a rally in the last three-and-a-bit years where VW's presence wasn't dominating the podium? Personally, I don't remember. But Rally Argentina may play itself out somewhat differently to the way it has in the past and has seemed almost destinued to continue to do.