In something of a departure, this post discusses Rally Australia before it happens. Not so much as a crystal ball exercise in prognostication as a look at what's at stake. In no particular order, here are my thoughts about an event I'll be watching with intense interest over the next few days.
Volkswagen
This should be the event that confirms the WRC manufacturer champs for VW, with a top five finish by either SebO or J-ML guaranteed to clinch the trophy with three events still to run. So no surprises should that happen. And as VW WRC team boss Capito has said, there will be no team orders to the drivers, which demonstrates how confident he is. It's a generous gift to the WRC fan base that he has chosen that path - thanks Jost, from all of us.
Mikkelsen continues to surprise on each event with some outstanding stage times peppered among many more solid stage results and podium finishes, so he's not going anywhere else for '15. Expect more podium results to figure amongst his achievements next year.
The drivers' championship is guaranteed to go to one of the three VW pilots, regardless of who wins this event, or any of the remaining events. But as a result of Capito's "no team orders" decision, we still don't know which of the three will be the eventual champ. With Ogier under increasing pressure from Jari-Matti, the Finn is still in the battle for first place.
SebO will push hard on the first day of the rally, simply because his road position disadvantage will mean he loses time to his competitors. However, he will take day 2 more carefully while he watches for the attrition of his competition. And if at the beginning of day 3 he's only one place behind J-ML, expect him to hold position rather than push for victory. His points lead in the championship will be sufficient that unnecessary risks need not be taken.
M-Sport Ford
M-Sport is having another annus horriblis, as the Brits might say, with a season of mistakes, mishaps and misfortune derailing their programme. 2014's single Ford podium so far has to be the team's lowest point in a very long time, yet the Fiesta RS WRC is a competitive weapon with the potential to win. So how is it that they are doing so badly?
The reasons are legion, but leaving aside the errors that have plagued the team's performance this season, it's really down to one thing. Funding.
Without an overt commitment to the series by Ford, M-Sport's traditional WRC partner, the Brit oufit is not able to offer the top-level drivers the kind of contractural arrangements that other teams can, and as a result, Malcolm Wilson has to make do with the affordable instead.
Which is not to say that Wilson would not have chosen Mikko or Elfyn as part of a larger team entry - Elfyn has grown in confidence and performance by leaps this season, and Mikko is an undoubtedly talented, podium winning Finn despite this season's poor showing.
But it's worth pondering whether M-Sport's fortunes might have been brighter had they been able to field Neuville or Latvala this year. But it wasn't to be and sadly, unless Ford get behind M-Sport in a way that gives Wilson the wallet power to field the best talent, 2015 will likely be another bad year for the team.
So Ford, how about fronting up with a bone for the super-loyal M-Sport team for '15?
Citroen
Without the Sebs fronting their attack on the WRC, the French manufacturer team hasn't shone as much as it had in its prime. It's a bit difficult to determine who the lead driver is in the Citroen WRC team this season. Ostberg seemed to be the top dog as the season began, but the renaissance of Meeke as the championship progressed suggests that the driving shoe is very much on the other foot now.
I've been quite open about my admiration for the Irishman this year, with recent showings demonstrating that he has the ability and maturity to foot it with the championship leaders. He's driving as well as he ever has, but the same cannot be claimed for Mads. There's no doubting that the Norwegian has speed and talent aplenty - the mystery is why he's not showing it at the moment. Frankly, I don't understand it. Maybe confidence? Who knows...
Hyundai
The rookie Korean team has been forthright about this season's being a development one and the numerous drivers fielded this year by Hyundai have confirmed that. So far they have used Neuville, Hanninen, Atkinson, Paddon, Sordo and Bouffier in a two team strategy. Neuville has competed in each event in '14 with a "guest" driver in the second car of their #1 team. Team #2 has been mostly Paddon, with Bouffier replacing him on tarmac events, the surface that the Frenchman has shown his best results on.
Word is that Hyundai team boss Nandan has inked his driver places for 2015, the team's stated first proper competitive year, but he has yet to announce his lineup. Neuville has a multi-year contract with Hyundai and he won the last round in Germany, so he's a definite, but the other places are anyone's guess.
My fingers are crossed that Paddon has done enough by now to cement a full programme with Hyundai in '15, but that is far from a certainty in my mind. However, a good showing, perhaps a podium for the Kiwi, would ensure a place in next year's WRC even if it wasn't with Hyundai. Dani Sordo's "guest" performances so far make him a strong contender for a spot as driver #2 in the main team. I would be surprised if he didn't make the cut.
So Rally Australia promises to hold many clues as to what will happen in next year's WRC in terms of team makeup and driver career moves. When I do my usual post-event analysis, I'll probably take a punt or two based on the action. At this point, the old crystal ball is too cloudy to discern anything other than the obvious as discussed above, but a couple of good performances and a couple of poor ones may change the landscape entirely.
Roll on Thursday.
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