As catalogued a couple of posts back, there were signs that the top order of WRC was undergoing a significant change, and the German round of the 2014 WRC has delivered more evidence that the championship is not the foregone conclusion it had appeared to be in the first half of the season, at which time VW's dominance in drivers and hardware was all but assured. Instead, SebO's relentless roll toward another championship victory stalled on the final stage of the German event's first day.
Ogier's problem arguably arose from the delayed start of the 8th special stage, with cold tyres and brakes a side-effect of the delay. 7.5km into the test, the VW pilot's late braking into a tightening right-hander left him with no room for correction and the Polo left the road. Although the car was virtually undamaged by its off-road odyssey, the crew were unable to regain the stage due to terrain and they were forced to retire.
At the time of their accident, Ogier/Ingrassia had been trading fastest stage times with Latvala/Antilla* the French crew having had a 3.7 second lead over the Finns up to that point. However the excursion and retirement hit Ogier with an automatic 10 minute penalty, so when he returned on Saturday under Rally 2 regulations, it was with the likelihood that he would finish the rally with no points other than any he might score on the power stage - not ideal, and giving teammate Latvala a huge boost in drivers' championship points. Game on!
While not wishing to labour the point, this had been the first time that the reigning world champion has had to pay for his risk-taking since he retired on Rally Sweden. And 'risk-taking' is not an exaggeration. On basically every event this season, Ogier has been captured having a "moment" that he was lucky to have survived with nothing more serious than a few dropped seconds, while competitors suffered much greater hardship as a result of basically identical indiscretions.
It's tempting to assume that Ogier has some level of car control that his opponents do not and that's how he's managed to avoid the consequences of his errors, but the tiny margins involved between saving and losing at these speeds suggest that luck has been an ally to the Frenchman on many occasions. But Friday's incident shows that it's not to be counted on. Ogier is supremely quick and brave, but as we are seeing now, these are qualities that Jari-Matti Latvala also possesses in equal measure. Make no mistake - Ogier is under very real pressure now.
So Saturday's stages seemed to be a comfortable run for Ogier with little need for the Frenchman to take any risks, and offering the prospect of his being able to keep his powder dry for Sunday's power stage. But it wasn't to be - as first WRC car through Stage 8, the VW driver smacked the Armco barrier just a little over a kilometre into the test, damaging both car and barrier, the latter so badly that the organisers were forced to abandon the stage entirely. Driver and co-driver were taken to hospital for precautionary examination.
It was rumoured that the Polo might restart under Rally 2 for a second time on Sunday, however inspection of the car revealed rollcage damage and the organisers refused permission for Ogier and Ingrassia to continue. All in all a significant impediment to the World Champs' 2014 title aspirations.
There was a considerable amount of media comment about this being so uncharacteristically Ogier in that he wasn't predisposed to make such mistakes, but clearly those commentators hadn't been paying attention. As brilliant as he is, it was clear to anybody who cared to look that Seb had made errors in all his recent WRC events but had the great good fortune to survive them without major damage or significant time loss.
Not so in Germany, and it seems less likely now that the World Champion will still bring his previous, seemingly unshakeable confidence levels to future events.
VW's Jari-Matti Latvala, on the other hand, is in deep renaissance mode, the days of doubt and caution replaced with confidence and optimism as he consistently out-gunned his French teammate over the course of the rally. His skills behind the wheel of the VW Polo are no less than Ogier's and the stage times confirm that.
Even though sealed surfaces are far from being his preferred ones, you'd never guess that from the performance the Finn has delivered at Rally Deutschland. He simply won the majority of the specials and absolutely deserved to take maximum points and the trophy.
A fantastic performance from possibly the best driver in the WRC right now. A brilliant effort from Latvala and Antilla that would have helped their Championship chances immensely. But an off in the first stage on Sunday destroyed the Finn's chances for
the win and suddenly Meeke and Neuville were battling for the top step
on the podium instead.
Citroen's Kris Meeke has carried on where he left off from Finland, mixing his raw speed with a mature attitude and in the process eclipsing his more-fancied teammate Mads Osberg into the bargain. Meeke and Nagle have driven another impressive event, finishing in the top three places on every stage bar three (the very model of outright pace and consistency) and fully deserving of a 1st place podium finish.
It wasn't to be. A collision with a wall only 2km into SS16 had the Citroen DS3 driver stopped and effectively his chances for a well-deserved result vanished.
It was apparent that Meeke has the chops to be championship contender in '15, and his speed on the sealed German stages - which he last encountered at WRC level in 2011 with Mini - was proof of that potential. M-Sport's Malcolm Wilson has his eye on the Northern Irishman for next season as a possible replacement for Mikko Hirvonen whose own performance has been disappointing this season. Mikko's 5th place finish in Germany is certainly well below his potential.
Elfyn Evans showed a good turn of speed over all three days, beating M-Sport lead driver Mikko Hirvonen's times regularly and showing excellent progression. Team boss Wilson has been very complimentary about the young Welshman's performances this year and has confirmed that he will have a place in M-Sport's attack on the WRC crown in 2015. A wonderful opportunity for Evans and co-driver Barritt that must seem to them like a dream come true. Their fourth place overall is just reward for their performance this weekend.
WRC new boys Hyundai fielded lead driver Neuville with tarmac specialists Sordo (last year's Rally Deutschland winner) replacing Hanninen and Bouffier, another up-and-coming talent, replacing WRC rookie Hayden Paddon for this event. Following a comprehensive rollover accident on shakedown and a twenty hour rebuild, Neuville regained his confidence and pace across the three days to narrowly beat Sordo to first place on the podium.
Sordo had the worst of the conditions encountered on the wet Saturday stages, being overtaken by teammate Neuville but holding on for a fine 2nd overall at rally's end. Bouffier, who promised much, never seemed to be quite comfortable in the i20 and his times didn't live up to expectations. On Saturday, a coming together with a hinkelstein on the Panzerplatte stage demolished the Hyundai's front suspension and Bouffier was out. However, stellar work by the Hyundai service team enabled the duo to rejoin the rally under Rally 2 for the final day's stages but an off on the power stage ended his rally.
Still, the Korean marque has shown continuous improvement with each event, and it would have been unwise to dismiss the possibility of a win before year's end. Nandan, team boss for Hyundai Motorsport, has consistently described the 2014 strategy as a learning period, but I suspect he would be absolutely delighted to measure that progress with a WRC win, regardless of the team's "development" status. A first place and a second place overall has to be nirvana for the Korean team.
So, wow. With this kind of action on the WRC, are the governing powers really intending to mess about with the formula?
KUBICA KORNER
Regular readers of this blog will be aware of my fascination for the Polish ex-F1 pilot as he re-imagines himself as a WRC champion contender. Despite the appalling rally injury that effectively destroyed his Formula One career, the Pole has shown he can put up competitive special stage times against the world's best. Unfortunately, his native pace is not matched by his pacenote skill and that has in turn led to an excess of retirements through crashing and damaging his Lotos sponsored WRC Fiesta.
Sadly, Rallye Deutschland has seen yet another such display. The Polish crew rolled off Stage 3 following a mistake by Kubica and although spectators came to the crew's rescue, the Lotos Fiesta WRC lost four minutes. Not a good beginning considering they had only completed two specials at that point.
Day 2 brought better results, including a brace of stage wins which would have improved Kubica's confidence greatly, and he continued to set decent times while avoiding mistakes. At the close of day 2 the Lotos Fiesta WRC had moved up into tenth place. But before the start of the first of Sunday's stages, the gearbox on his Fiesta failed and the Pole retired from the event, a rather unfair development and certainly not Kubica's fault.
To their credit, the team have been concentrating on perfecting their pacenotes in anticipation of a better year in '15, but clearly there is much still to be done there and one must question whether Lotos will have the patience to stick with the team. Personally, I hope they will...
*A shout out to VW team boss Capito for allowing his drivers to compete for the drivers' championship - a great gift to the WRC!
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