Slated to officially join the WRC circus in 2017, Toyota will supposedly make its first appearance this year in Wales. Oh, not with their 2017-ready hardware or their superstar lead driver at the wheel, but they will be there. And not a moment too soon. A small re-cap is in order here.
Just a few short months ago, the future of the WRC was looking... well, reasonably positive - as much as the WRC ever does - and it was all falling into place for drivers and teams. 2016 was shaping up to be a consolidation year for the successful and a catch-up year for those whose report card was stamped "Could do better". No longer though. So what went wrong?
Emission Impossible
VW had its planning and budget sorted for a well-executed campaign through 2018 and in their superbly organised fashion, were looking to be unbeatable in 2016 as well. The emissions cheating that the Wulfsburg corporate has been indulging in is having significant financial consequences and already there are rumours that the Polo R WRC presence in the World Championship will be a single team/two car affair* next season. [See update at the end of this post]
While that in itself wouldn't be a serious impediment to another successful year in the WRC, given that the #1 team has shown itself to be a point-scoring powerhouse, if true it does mean that there would be a driver without a seat in 2016. That, indeed, would be an issue. Who would that driver be? Difficult to say, but with Mikkelsen having a contract (so the rumours say) through 2017, then it'd likely to be one of the others. And it wouldn't be Sébastien Ogier, thus leaving a popular Finn with a future somewhat less certain than just two rallies ago.
Two into One Don't Go
Got a coin handy? Yves Matton has an interesting choice or two to make, and the deadline is approaching fast. First there's the decision whether the French manufacturer puts its marketing muscle either behind the WRC or the WTCC, having announced that the budget is only able to do one series justice. So which will it be? One thing that's shifted the balance in favour of the WRC winning the coin-toss is the planned inclusion of a Chinese event in 2016, something that Matton sees as mandatory if Citroen were to continue their rally programme.
So, one hurdle overcome then? Kind of, but Matton was also adamant that a 14 round WRC programme was one round too many, and their budget wouldn't allow them to compete. That's that then... except; The FIA has announced that all the manufacturers have given their blessing to the 14 round calendar. Er, what? A 180º position shift from Matton? Quelle horreur! Mais non...
Well it seems that certain pronouncements from the double-chevron camp were more of a cunning plan to get some concessions from the promoter and the FIA, and the 14 round budget issue is going to fade gently away. But does that clarify Citroen's intentions for 2016 and beyond? Not really. You'll be waiting until December to find out officially that the WTCC has been dumped as a works-run outfit, with instead select teams being "supported" in their efforts.
While the topic of Citroen is fresh, it's worth remembering that their driver lineup is still a hot topic in rumourville. The three-event probation period is over, and in theory at least, Matton has had sufficient demonstration from his drivers as to their suitability to represent Citroen in 2016. The cagey team boss won't be announcing his decision until he's good and ready, possibly not until he has to confirm the team entry into the Monte Carlo event.
So who stays and who goes? Got that coin handy still?
Malcolm in the Middle
M-Sport deserves a huge vote of thanks for sticking with the WRC this season. Self-funded for the most part, the Cumbria-based constructor has had to suffer the effects of a modest budget, relatively speaking, and the consequences of running two less-experienced drivers as his best options. Despite the promise shown at times by both youngsters, a team with the history that M-Sport has in the WRC deserves to have the services of a top gun pilot as lead driver in the Fiesta.
Team boss Malcolm Wilson would be justified in feeling agrieved that his drivers haven't delivered on their promise, and the priceless opportunity handed to both Evans and Tanak, in what has become a very competitive rally weapon - although you'd not think so looking at the points won this year.
In a "last chance saloon" kind of way, Evans and Tanak have to prove their bona fides on Wales RallyGB or they are gone-burger in 2016. Wilson simply cannot afford to let sentiment get in the way of results in the new year, and rumour has it that something quite different is on the menu for the coming season should the young guns fail to fire next weekend.
New Car, New Career
What's up at Hyundai? Two years in, this young team has taken a dollar each way approach to their WRC aspirations with the hiring of the much-fancied sprinter Thierry Neuville and that venerable stayer, Dani Sordo. Plus including talented yearling Paddon in a trifecta bet that really should have paid better dividends than it did in 2015. Not that they've actually done poorly when compared to their peers, Citroen and M-Sport - clearly, VW has been the favourite for three years now - but they could have done better. And that's where things are both discouraging and promising at the same time.
The i20 as we're used to seeing it, is somewhat of a mixed bag, with less than optimal performance at times yet able to perform better than it has a right to in other circumstances. So the promise of a new 3 door car based on the next-gen i20 was a beacon of hope for the team in the second half of this season. A pity then that homologation issues surrounding the coupe, and eventually slower development than expected, caused team boss Nandan to shelve the anticipated launch until 2016.
The good news for the team, and especially the drivers, is that testing has shown that the areas of sub-par performance in the curent car don't exist in the new i20, and while development continues, it's universally accepted that the 2016 car will be better in every way. Whether that means it will compete on equal terms with the Polo R, or perhaps betters it, remains to be seen. But the drivers are optimistic as to its competitive abilities.
Those drivers, however, are another issue for Hyundai. Unexpectedly, lead driver Thierry Neuville has failed to live up to his position in the team, and his own expectations. This has resulted in the team publicly expressing their disappointment with Neuville and he in turn complaining about the current car's failings and the "broken promise" of the new car in 2015.
Neuville's frame of mind hasn't been helped by the performance of the third team driver, Hayden Paddon, who has finished ahead of his team's lead driver, and their #2 driver, four times this season, with Sordo finishing as fastest i20 driver five times. Hence Neuville's running on the Welsh rally in Paddon's usual Team #2 role. Not a good look for the Belgian and rumours are flying that he and the Korean team are on the verge of parting the ways - something given credence by recent comments from Matton that Neuville would be welcome to return to Citroen.
If it were to happen, it raises the question as to whether the reliable and fast Sordo might well take over Thierry's role as #1, Paddon move up to the #8 car as driver #2, and Abbring drop into the #20 car vacated by Hayden. And all three would have the advantage of a more competitive evo model to tackle the competition. An interesting thought, but a much bigger gamble than Nandan's previous punt.
The Toyota Quota
If you've been adding up as we've gone along, it'll have been apparent that there will be fewer cars than drivers next year which inevitably means that some drivers will miss out, something that would be a shame for them, and of course their fans as well. So it's fortuitous that Toyota will need some talent with WRC top-level experience to help sort the Yaris WRC over the next 12 months, and there's little doubt that some of the excess talent will end up doing part-year duty behind the wheel of the new Toyota in R5 guise.
Those out of a full time seat in 2016 might well be:
Kris Meeke
Elfyn Evans
Ott Tanak
Jari-Matti Latvala*
but with Toyota's entry, that could offer opportunities for some if not all of those talented drivers to show their stuff for 2017.
There are a large number of "ifs" and "buts" in the preceding thoughts, and no doubt there will be some things that you disagree with. So feel free to share your own thoughts in the comment section below. Just remember that we're all human and keep it friendly.
Roll on Wales RallyGB in just a week from now!
*UPDATE: Motorsport media are reporting that VW have released a statement saying that the rumours of a reduced car entry in 2016 are false - apparently confirming that the usual VW format of two teams and three drivers will remain, despite the emissions scandal the German automaker is currently embroiled in.
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