In a few days time, the Finnish round of the WRC will launch and I think we're going to see a stonking bucketload more DNFs than the sport has experienced for quite some time. My not having been blessed with clairvoyance, soothsaying prowess or supernatural prescience of any kind, you'll probably be scoffing and snorting with derision as to how I can make that claim. OK, fair enough, but I'm happy to explain.
The short answer is that virtually every driver at the sharp end of the sport believes that this event suits him and each feels unnaturally confident about his chances of doing well. I use the word "his" there because all the drivers concerned happen to be male, not through any devolution into sexist commentary, in case anyone is wondering.
So how do I know that the drivers feel this way? Because they say so whenever they're asked about the Neste Oil Rally of Finland. And given the amazingly rallyable roads the country offers, it's not difficult to understand why they feel so. This weekend, then, it appears that a dozen or so local and international WRC competitors will all be on the top step of the podium.
Well that's clearly not possible; something will of course influence that outcome, so there will be just the one winner, one second placegetter, a third, a fourth... you get the picture. This post having been written prior to the event, and in keeping with my disclaimer at the beginning, I have to have other criteria that justify the "carnage" claim. So let's have at it...
There are some drivers who NEED to win in Finland, such is the pressure they're under to perform. You all know who they are of course, but I've taken the liberty to state the obvious, and in no particular order, they appear below.
Kris Meeke
Kris has had a bit of a shocker of a season so far, with the exception of Argentina where he won, so his bosses and especially Yves Matton, are disenchanted with the Northern Irishman. That he is fast is beyond dispute but he's also mistake-prone. Normally you'd expect him to ease off the ten tenths approach in Finland and pick up as many points as possible for the team. However, Kris is fighting for his seat here, and without some startlingly good finishes, Citroen have as good as said he's done. So what choice does Meeke have other than flat out?
Jari-Matti Latvala
J-ML is arguably the quickest WRC driver at the moment. Yes, Virginia, I know his stage times are regularly beaten - usually by teammates Ogier and Mikkelsen, but also by a smattering of other competitors - but when he's in the zone, he can be a lot quicker than anybody else. A lot. So Latvala has the ability to clean up in Finland and with his contract secure for next year, what's he doing in the "dance of the desperates" list? Simply put, he's Finnish. And this rally is in Finland. And he won it last year. The pressure here is not external - Jari-Matti needs to do well on his home event for the confidence that he's been lacking this season. He'll be aiming for that top step.
Thierry Neuville
The lead driver for Hyundai has by his standards underperformed in 2015. It's difficult to nail down the reason for this state of affairs, but Thierry's most common and perhaps most telling comments are to do with lack of rythm, and not feeling at one with the car. As a result, the Belgian has at times compared poorly to his junior "B team" teammate, Hayden Paddon. And it's absolutely true that up to this point and including Finland, Neuville will have had a better performing car at his disposal. The Hyundai No.1 will need a spectacularly good result in Finland to erase the creeping feeling among the pundits and fans that perhaps he's not capable of living up to the expectations of his role.
Elfyn Evans
Midway through his second full-time season with M-Sport, Evans has shown less pace than might reasonably be expected of him, having been Wilson's first pick for his refreshed driver lineup. Inexperience can certainly explain some of the lack of speed that the Welshman has exhibited - this year especially - a regular complaint being a self-critical "can't find the rythm" at stage-end interviews. And while he's had some mechanical issues that have hobbled his performance at times, the speed differential between himself and teammate Tanak is striking, particularly as their cars are identical. Right now, the top step may possibly be beyond his reach, but another podium must be his focus here in order to extract himself from the current doldrums and to get some kind of parity with Estonian fellow competitor, and Fiesta RS WRC driver, Ott Tanak.
Mads Ostberg
Like his counterpart in the DS3 WRC, Mads has had a very ordinary year by his standards. Despite holding second spot overall in the drivers' championship up until Poland, the Norwegian has gradually relinquished claim to the pace that both he and Citroen need to complete the season in a respectable second place in the manufacturer standings. Matton is out of patience with his drivers and although Ostberg has had less criticism specifically aimed at him in public, it's clear that the team boss is none too pleased with the reults so far. It's not unlikely that Ostberg's future with the French marque hangs in the balance. Mads's PET results for Finland have given him confidence. He will be pushing, hard.
Robert Kubica
Kubica is at a crossroads. This rally, of all the events in the calendar, is likely to give the Pole the best chance at a podium, and as he might reasonably hope, a WRC win. With the damage to his arm a continuing restriction to his times over more technical stages, Finland's fewer bends and junctions per competitive kilometre offer Kubica the opportunity to drive fast with less time lost in the twisty bits. That being so, Robert will certainly have flagged this event as one where he can go for it. That's important because over the next two rounds, he's got to make his mind up about continuing in the WRC or switching to circuits, (no pun intended). A win in Finland would be a good litmus test for the future.
Ott Tanak
A toss-up really as to whether the Estonian belongs in this section, because of all the drivers included, he has the least need to give it the welly, but arguably has the greatest temperament to do so. Anybody following his progress over the years (literally the competitor on stages and rally fan alike), knows he can be incredibly quick. He proved that again in Poland. Yet M-Sport needs manufacturer points as well and taking too many risks isn't conducive to that aim. However, Tanak's performance in the last round must have encouraged Wilson to unclip the leash from his Ottweiler and the Estonian will be flooring it on day two for sure.
With all of those guys believing they're in with some chance of taking the win, and all of them needing the win for their own reasons, it's a given that there will be a high percentage getting intimate with the scenery and another bunch breaking stuff. At the speeds recorded in Finland, an off can be a fairly final transgression, hence my prediction of DNFs galore. But it's this seemingly limitless self belief infusing the competitors' confidence in the lead-up to the rally that practically guarantees an unprecedented number of retirements over the three days. Rally 2 will be used as rarely seen since its inception.
What about the rest of the top runners? Well, just because one doesn't need to win outright doesn't stop one wanting the win. And Sebastién Ogier wants it very much. His desire for victory doesn't stop at winning a round. Or a championship. He wants to prove that he's the best ever, and to realise that goal requires winning as often as possible. So he'll be pushing as well, but his sheer skill makes him somewhat less likely to get close up and personal with the Finnish flora.
Dani Sordo has had a lacklustre season, like others have experienced, and although he'd very much like to be at the front in Finland, the Spaniard will refrain from unnecessary risk taking and bide his time, all the while looking ahead to the tarmac events where his track record shows he's highly competitive.
Hayden Paddon has driven the last three rounds at good pace and within what he feels is his comfort zone, having reached an understanding with his i20. It's a combination that, despite the car being the acknowledged runt of the litter as far as the top twelve WRC cars go, makes some of the more fancied competition look a little ordinary. Sticking to his game plan has been working very well for the rookie Kiwi and it seems unlikely he'll have to change that in order to finish well in Finland. As Hayden says, he loves the Finnish stages.
Andreas Mikkelsen has out-performed his VW teammates at crucial times over the championship and he's quick without seeming to push too hard to get results. Twice this year, he's been in the box seat for a victory and twice he's failed to complete the promise. His role as driver for the VW "B team" means there's no pressure for manufacturer championship points so the only factor in play here is the drivers' championship and in that he currently holds second, albeit with a large deficit from leader Ogier. Still, a win in Finland would narrow that gap, but more important still, would give the Norwegian his maiden win overall, and that will surely be on his mind.
Of course, I could be wrong about the outcome at Rally Finland, and I hope that I am simply because it's exciting as hell when the competition is close, and nobody wants the result dictated by mechanical issues or offs. But right now, Finland looks a little like a powder keg, and the fuse is lit.
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