Why so? Glad you asked...
For one thing, this rally is run at high altitude, high enough in fact to rob the WRC cars of as much as 30% of the power and the torque available at the venues of other rounds. So the engine power advantages between the latest evolution cars and those more or less running last year's spec will be proportionately reduced. This means, for example, that the lesser VW Polo R power advantage over Hyundai's i20 will immediately make Neuville more competitive in mexico than was the case in Sweden. And Neuville wasn't a long way off the pace there.
Mexico is also blessed with more consistent grip, its gravel surfaces allowing for a higher level of confidence for the drivers, and thus more commitment. Which means that the drivers who had poorer performances in Monte Carlo and Sweden will believe that they can make up for them in Guanajuato, and as for most competitive endeavours, belief is a massive component of success in the WRC.
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| Paddon and Kennard in Spain, 2014. Image courtesy of Paddon Rallysport |
There are other factors at play here though, not least the road order on the event. The running order for the first two full days in Mexico is based entirely on championship points positions following Rallye Sweden - the hierarchy follows:
1: Sebastién Ogier
2: Thierry Neuville
3: Andreas Mikkelsen
4: Jari-Matti Latvala
5: Mads Ostberg
6: Elfyn Evans
7: Ott Tanak
8: Hayden Paddon
9: Kris Meeke
10: Dani Sordo
11. Martin Prokop
12: Yuri Protasov*
Because the roads being used on this event are rather well endowed with gravel, the first cars through will have less grip available than those running later in the order. Less grip means lower corner speeds, having to brake earlier, slower acceleration and thus lower straight line speeds. All of that will result in potentially slower times for the first car, while getting progressively quicker for each car that passes as the racing line is swept clear of the loose material.
In theory then, Yuri Protasov, of all the points-holding WRC top level competitors, will reap the most benefit. Of course that doesn't account for such other factors as driver ability, car performance, setup and so on, but despite that caveat, Yuri will be very pleased to accept the advantage his road position will offer.* See below for update.
Sebastién Ogier, on the other hand, will be unhappy with his position and will no doubt announce the fact at every media opportunity he encounters. Loop two of each of the full days though will give the world champion relief from that disadvantage, and he will prove his talent once again as each stage is re-run.
It's worth pointing out here that Ogier is highly likely to push very hard on the first loop, so as not to lose too much time to his competitors. This has proven to be a good strategy for the Frenchman in the past, Sweden springing immediately to mind, but it is fraught with risk. To "push" is a driver euphemism for "take more risks than usual" or, to use an ancient rally term, "drive at eleven tenths".
SebO will pursue that tactic in Mexico. The question is simply "Will he complete the morning loops without crashing?" and while the answer is yet unknown, my feeling is that he will crash out. He has a formidable talent, and has had stunningly lucky breaks in the past, but sooner or later the inevitable happens. We'll see in a couple of days...
Neuville's second starting spot will give him a small advantage over Ogier, the Frenchman's visible racing lines and the marginally better grip both helping the Belgian's chances, so he won't have to push as hard to earn decent stage times. And so it goes, car by car, driver by driver, down the order. Kris Meeke, whose speed has proven to be at top level over the past year and more, will gain greatly from his relatively lowly ninth position. If he can avoid errors this weekend, and that's a substantially-sized "if", he'll be on the podium in Mexico.
Dani Sordo, while arguably in an even better position to profit from his tenth place in the order, is still in recovery mode from his broken ribs and his lack of competitive seat time. So he'll get some advantage, but it's unreasonable to expect miracles from the Spaniard, despite his abilities and commitment. If he gets a podium, it will be an outstanding effort. He will surely be one to watch regardless.
Mikkelsen showed in Sweden that he's competitive, even against the world champ, and his start position will help his cause. Expect him to get better times than Ogier on the morning loops for Friday and Saturday, and be within a few seconds quicker or slower for the afternoon stages. A possible podium? Absolutely - in fact, a probable podium from the Norwegian. The top step? You'd be an idiot to discount it.
Jari-Matti Latvala is spectacularly quick. Agruably, he's the fastest driver in the WRC and when he gets "sus patos" in a row, he's unbeatable. All rally drivers make errors - some seem to get punished more than others - and J-ML is no exception. In recent times, he's made some doozies which have cost him greatly, but his mental strength has improved over the past season. If the quacking chorus are correctly lined up, with his road position advantage over his teammates, Jari-Matti could take the top spot in Mexico. And the confidence boost that would bring would give him the self-belief to become drivers champ in WRC '15.
In Elfyn's second full season at the top level, the Welshman's speed has progressively improved to the point where on selected rounds of the WRC, a podium is more a likelihood than mere possibility. The odd error here and there has cost him finishing positions, but can't disguise his potential. A top five finish in Mexico is on the cards for Evans, but a podium looks less likely.
Ott Tanak has moved on from his poor performance on the Monte with a well-deserved fourth in Sweden. The Estonian's reputation for blistering pace followed by car-munching crashes notwithstanding, he has clearly learned to curb his hunger for stage wins and now plays a longer game. His start order will help him return competitive times without unnecessary risks and M-Sport can look forward to enjoying a podium return should a couple of more-fancied drivers fall by the wayside.
Hayden Paddon is back in his #20 Hyundai i20 WRC for the Guanajuato round, fresh from taking Sordo's #8 car to a career-best fifth overall in Sweden. Despite the Kiwi's unfamiliarity with the Swedish stages and having to learn a new driving style to accommodate Dani's car setup, Paddon impressed with a performance that showcases the progress he's made in a WRC career that is still five events shy of a full season. Tweaks to the i20 in testing have given the Kiwi more speed and confidence going into Mexico. A podium may be out of reach yet, but won't be far off.
Prokop this year has demonstrated a competitive improvement that surprised many. Given an error- and mechanical-issue-free run in Mexico, the Czech could deliver more surprises here in Fiona, his Fiesta RS WRC. The low start order will give him an opportunity on two mornings to score times closer to the other WRC drivers than he's used to, so expect him to take that advantage in both hands. A podium seems somewhat unlikely, but his recent improvements show he's getting closer.
The Mexican WRC round looks to be one of the most thrilling of events in 2015 - it's too difficult to predict the top three, but there's definitely room to break the VW hegemony on the championship.
¡Arriba!
*[Update] Yuri Protasov is competing in WRC2 for Mexico, and should actually start 15th after the three remaining WRC cars of Kubica, Guerra and Bertelli, despite those three having scored no points so far. So Yuri will get a decent road position, but driving a WRC2 car, he won't threaten for an overall result unless there's utter carnage among the vehicles ahead of his start position.
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