WRC '16 - Paddon's year in perspective

The 2016 season in review

Monte Carlo

Hayden's first shot at the Monte was always going to be a learning experience and so it transpired. Surprisingly, SS2 saw him finish 4th fastest and fifth overall at that point, driving the 2015 version of the i20. It wasn't to last though - an icy bend caught him out on the first stage of day 2 and with broken suspension, he was left with a Rally 2 conclusion to the event, the remainder of the round becoming a learning opportunity for the crew. A harsh introduction to the classic event undoubtedly, but offering a glimpse of his pace on what was a very unfamiliar surface for the Kiwi.

Finished 25th


Sweden

His first competitive drive in the New Generation 2016 car brought Paddon a well-deserved 2nd overall. Although nominally helped by a lowly road position after his retirement on the previous round, he certainly made the most of it, keeping the pressure on the leader until the end. A promising sign for the remainder of the season.

Finished 2nd


Mexico

On his second visit to Mexico, Hayden was pumped for a great result. Sadly, his event was marred by a series of errors and mechanical woes that meant the Hyundai crew finished in 5th - not a bad result considering the set-backs encountered, but a disappointment that he felt keenly when he could have so easily have been on the podium again. When he was unencumbered by car problems, he was properly quick. 2017 in Mexico and Paddon will be targeting the win. And he's likely to get it.

Finished 5th


Argentina

As if to underscore the near-miss of Mexico, Hayden pulled off his first WRC win in Argentina. Fast all weekend, the Kiwi pushed rally leader Jari-Matti Latvala and withstood the constant pressure from World Champion Ogier. Then he put in an absolute blinder on the power stage to increase his lead over the fast-closing Frenchman and created a little bit of a legend into the bargain. It's not often that Ogier is caned on the power stage, especially when he's as close as he was to grabbing the win from Paddon. But history records that the Hyundai crew took the crown, and they well deserved their victory. The year ahead was looking very good indeed.

Finished 1st


Portugal

On an event where the New Zealander expected to do well, Portugal proved that in rallying, you never take anything for granted. Differential issues with his i20 had Paddon pushing very hard to stay competitive through the first day, and with the promise of a fix at service, he was confident that he'd come back from the disadvantage he was experiencing. Unbeknownst to the Kiwi, a large hole had opened up on the racing line before the second run through the Ponte de Lima stage. Although not the first to encounter the hole, Hayden's higher speed propelled the i20 into contact with an earth bank, which in turn launched the car off the road backwards, and rolling it once before the Hyundai settled back on its wheels. A bad result, for sure, but the ensuing blaze from dry vegetation on a red hot exhaust incinerated the car, destroying it completely. Ott Tanak suffered the same impacts and only narrowly escaped the same fate. From the high of Argentina, the Kiwi crew suffered the depths of despair in the space of a single round. Despite there being no culpability attached to the crew, the severity of the consequences were a confidence-undermining blow.

Did not finish


Italy

Just how important confidence is for good results was demonstrated graphically on the Italian round. Determined to make up for the disaster in Portugal, Paddon was pushing hard for a podium placing in Sardinia in a replacement NGi20 built from scratch in just two short weeks. So one can only begin to imagine Paddon's horror when he made a rare driving error that resulted in the car clipping a tree before slithering off a bank at high speed and into retirement. If his confidence had survived the Portugal incident intact, the same would not be true following the Sardinian mistake. There was nothing and no-one to blame but the driver, and it was clear that he was doing some serious soul-searching post-rally. But the season wasn't half way through, and there was plenty of time to make amends.

Did not finish


Poland

While never feeling comfortable at any point in the rally, Hayden's performance in Poland showed his evolving mental toughness, with a top three position throughout the event. Following two disastrous previous rallies, his relief was palpable and at the half-way mark, the crew were back on track to push for another win or two. Or at least more podiums, with favoured gravel-surface rounds ahead… Finland, GB and Australia, plus the mixed gravel/tarmac Spanish round still to come. After the disappointments of the DNFs they'd experienced, Poland's third place result was a welcome improvement and a boost in confidence for the Kiwis.

Finished 3rd


Finland

Hayden had expected to do well in Finland, a round that the Hyundai ace regards as his favourite after his home event. The super-fast flowing roads suit his driving style and he admits that he feels happiest when the speeds are higher and the technical sections are fewer. So it was a surprise to see his times being consistently below those of the competition - with the exception of his teammates. It appeared to be a grip issue for all three i20s and despite tweaks to both his driving style and the car, Paddon was unable to match the times of the fastest crews. In the end, he settled for what was for him a disappointing fifth place, but even with the problems he experienced, he was still just seven seconds shy of a podium at the finish. And there were still five rounds left in the season.

Finished 5th


Germany

Considering his acknowledged lack of familiarity and experience on tarmac, Paddon's fifth place was a suitable reward for his perseverance after an opening day fraught with spins, a puncture and a high-speed "moment" which set him back in the order. Day two's less squirrely approach promised a better result but Paddon took a gamble on his tyre choices which didn't return the expected dividend, and his progress suffered accordingly. A little experimenting with the car's set-up helped his performance on the final day and the Kiwi was relatively satisfied with the efforts on the unfamiliar German stages.

Finished 5th


France

Another tarmac event, another learning opportunity. Experimenting with both car set-up and his own driving styles, Paddon didn't really fire in Corsica, if "not firing" can be applied to a 6th place overall at the end of the round. Yet there can be little doubt that the Kiwi will have walked away from that event feeling that he "could have done better" as a report card might conclude. That would be a rather harsh summary though, with the notoriously tricky stages conspiring against his lack of knowledge of the event and his lack of stage distance on tarmac compared with his competitors. So in fairness, Corsica was a round that Hayden might well have finished at the bottom end of the top ten, yet still have been entitled to feeling pleased with himself. To finish 6th was a better result than it seemed at first glance. Expect the Kiwi to finish inside the top five in 2017.

Finished 6th


Spain

Day one in Spain was the time that Hayden had expected to push for a good position before the change to tarmac from the opening day's gravel surface. That didn't pan out. The anti-lag properties for the i20's turbocharger failed to materialize, costing the crew a bucket of time lost to their competitors. Once on tarmac, they were always going to be at a disadvantage to their opposition, so the opening leg was crucial to a competitive result. It showed then how much Paddon had improved on that paved surface, that at the end of Rally Spain, they held fourth overall against competition that had vastly more tarmac experience than the New Zealanders. Not a bad effort from them, and a clear pointer to better tarmac results next season.

Finished 4th


Great Britain

Another gravel round of the WRC offering Paddon the chance to shine on his favoured surface, Rally Great Britain turned out to be a darkish cloud on his horizon. With opportunities for a podium fast running out, the Hyundai driver really needed a good result here. But "good" is a relative term, and although he finished in fourth at the end of the event, it might as well have been tenth. Hayden really wanted, and needed, a podium finish to get his year back on track. But the wet, muddy, slippery tracks of Wales and England foiled his attempts to get to grips with the stages. Literally. He didn't miss third place by much but in the end, the narrowness of the failure didn't compensate for its presence on the score sheet. For once, Hayden simply had no answer to the conditions. Fourth overall is not a bad result for somebody who doesn't aspire to being world champion, but Paddon does and for that aspiration, fourth at Rally GB just wasn't up to it.

Finished 4th


Australia

Hayden's "home" event, Coffs-based Rally Australia should be top of Hayden's 'must-win' list. And it is. But 2016 had been a funny old year for the Kiwi and many of the opportunities that had been marked as goals to fulfill had not come to fruition. Beginning the Australian round, the final event of the WRC calendar, it was imperative that Hayden take the rally by the scruff on the neck and own it. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. Though it wasn't for want of trying. Pre-start, Paddon was confident and he carried that feeling into the opening day as evidenced by a tyre choice that included running hards on the front, a gamble that stood to gain the Kiwi a major advantage if it paid off. But it didn't, instead costing him some time and leaving him in fourth at day's end. By the end of the second day, he'd moved up to third and was a scant few seconds behind leader Ogier going into the final day. But a mistake on the only stage long enough for him to claw back time from second place and put a buffer between himself and fourth placed teammate Neuville saw him clout a bank and puncture. The time lost completing the stage on a shredded tyre (and mangled car) dropped him to fourth where he stayed to the end.

Finished 4th

Where does that leave us?

For Hayden and John, 2016 was year of highs and lows. It was a year of sublime skill, and of unforced errors, a mix of fortune and of misfortune. Of experiments made in an endless quest for improvement. Of gambles taken and of lessons learned.

As we head into 2017, Hayden has made it clear that his goals are for rally wins. Not a win here or there. He wants to fight for the win in every rally from now on - no excuses - so that in 2017, he will become totally WRC match-fit while earning valuable points for Hyundai Shell Mobis WRT toward the coveted manufacturer's crown.

And that in 2018, Hayden, John and Hyundai Shell Mobis WRT will all be world champions. That's one hell of a mission statement.

Has Hayden peaked?

It's a fair question, despite the year-by-year rapid improvements we're used to seeing from New Zealand's maverick rally ace. He's human, after all, and there's a limit to what humans can achieve even when their potential seems unlimited. This past 11 months have shown that he possesses the talent and commitment to be at the top table of world rallying, in spite of his having got there without the aid of the European talent nursery of abundant money and connections. But being at the top table and becoming World Champion are two entirely different things - just ask Jari-Matti. And Mads. And Mikko. And Dani. And…

That Hayden deserves his place at the top table surely cannot be disputed by now. Even with his acknowledged weaknesses on ice, slimy mud, snow and tarmac, his improved performances on those surfaces against his run in 2015 are obvious to all, and there's no evidence that he cannot continue to improve. Probably for years. Because that's the way he works. He is absolutely focused on a continued program of improvements - empirical gains that he, and we, can measure.

And you can bet that Hayden will be the first to announce that he's hit the wall, if and when that happens. But that's not on the cards in the near future.

Being at the top table, especially for an "outsider" such as Hayden and John from the antipodes, is a massive success in its own right. We sometimes forget that the young neophyte from Geraldine wasn't invited into that rarified clubhouse of European rallying. He had to push. And prod. And cajole. And sell himself, literally, to get through the door. And even after all that, it took the principal of a local motor vehicle importer to bridge the remaining gap between a local talent and the elite of European motorsport.

Hayden is now accepted as belonging among the brightest stars of world rallying, though it took a while and there was some resistance initially. But there's no consensus as to whether he has what it takes to be a World Champion. Just the quiet confidence of an unassuming young battler who isn't short of self-belief, and his family and friends. And of course, his fans. And they don't dismiss him easily.