Wednesday, June 29, 2016

WRC '16 - Has the Polo lost its mojo?

Arguably the most successful single rally weapon the World Rally Championship has yet seen, it's finally looking like the VW Polo R WRC has met its match. Three and a half years of superiority is nothing to be sneezed at, mind you, so nobody should be shedding any tears for Wolfsburg's finest. It's just the "evolution" thing at work.

Taking nothing away from the VW drivers' own efforts, there's no doubt the Polo's superiority has contributed heavily to their successes, most notably Sebastian Ogier's outstanding results over the past three seasons. Three time World Champion, and looking likely to add to that total in 2016, Ogier and the Polo have proven to be almost unbeatable.

Almost... until now, that is.

Nearly half way through its first season, Hyundai's NGi20 has shown that, on gravel at least, it's a match for the Polo. Yes, it's had some teething issues with various components, weaknesses with steering/suspension elements being particularly notable, but the Korean manufacturer team learns fast, and the truncated initial development period for what is basically a one-year car, makes it seem all the more impressive that it's as competitive as it has shown itself to be.

This is not the place for muddying the waters with driver performances, an interesting topic in its own right and fodder for a future blog post no doubt - it's where we look dispassionately at the relative performances of the Polo versus its competition. And a look at the history of the VW contender paints a picture of a wunderkind who's seeing the sun set on its glory days. 2017 surely can't come soon enough for the Volkswagen team.

                     2013        2014        2015         2016

Wales           1:2:5        1:8           1:3:50        ------
Spain            1:2           1:2:7        1:2             ------
France          1:3:7        1:2:13      1:3:15        ------
Australia       1:4:6        1:2:3        1:2:4          ------
Germany      7:17          3:             1:2:3         ------
Finland         1:10:17    1:2:4         1:2             ------
Greece         1:4:10       ------         ------          ------
Argentina      2:3:8        1:2:4        17:            2:3:16
Portugal        1:3:6        1:4:14      1:2:3         2:3:6
Mexico          1:16         1:2:19      1:3:15       1:4:26
Sweden         1:4           1:2:6        1:3            2:3:16
Monte Carlo   2:            1:5:7        1:2:3         1:2
Poland           ------        1:2:5         1:2:5          ------

A quick summary of results can be expressed like this:
In their first year with the Polo R WRC, VW missed the top step just three times;
in their second year, they missed just once;
and last year, again on just the one occasion.

But so far in 2016, the team have managed just two wins from five starts - by their own astonishingly high standards, clearly a disappointing result. Hyundai, in the NGi20's development year, has so far matched the wins of the mighty VW team. And while it's still early days in the championship, the Korean competitor is looking every bit as likely on any round to grab the podium's top step as the German marque.

Ogier has made it known that development of the current Polo is at a standstill, with the team's efforts being poured into the 2017 spec car. That's no surprise, given the tightness of the time-frame until homologation, so we shouldn't expect the '16 Polo's performance to improve significantly, if at all, for the remainder of the year.

The Hyundai, on the other hand, has shown increased performance as the season progresses and with the Polish event about to take place, a round that should play to the NGi20's strengths, it would be a reckless punter who would bet against the possibility of a third top-step finish for one of the three Hyundais.

It's been said that Hyundai can't be capable of investing precious resources in further development of the one-year car when the 2017 version deadline is looming, but that thinking ignores the fact that the NGi20 is to a degree the real-world testing platform for the Alzenau team's next generation weapon - much of what has gone into this single-year evolution vehicle is new and destined to feature in the '17 car.

In Neuville, Paddon and Sordo, Hyundai's team boss Nandan has a driver resource that will be easily capable of parlaying the undoubtedly improved performance of the NGi20 WRC into further rally wins this year. It only remains to be seen how many more victories the team will accrue, and which driver(s) will get them.


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