Officially revealing the worst-kept secret in motorsport memory, Toyota on Friday announced their impending return to the WRC in 2017. Seemingly endless rumours, backed by reports from the various Yaris WRC development tests over the past 12 months, have taken much of the "ooh-aah" factor from the announcement, as welcome as that announcement is. To have such a major global presence commit to the WRC is exciting indeed and will certainly remove some of the negativity about the future of the championship. So what happens now?
Without access to the internal workings of Toyota Motorsport (TMG), and at this point we're not convinced that even they know yet, we have to make some educated guesses. Risky, to be sure, but resolutely unafraid of getting egg on our faces, a select group of rally fanatics and yours truly have been pondering what we might expect between now and the formal team announcement in October(ish) 2016.
So let's dive right in.
Who will the test drivers be?
This is a messy topic; there has already been a large pool of drivers used during testing - Sarrazin, Lindholm, Lefebvre, Abbring, Tidemand, Suninen and Camilli to name the ones we actually know about. And doubtless, there were others who tested but are not identified due to contractural issues.
The official test team has been declared. The lucky drivers are Camilli, Sarrazin and Lindholm although we can expect that to change when lead competition drivers are added as the programme approaches maturity. But the three testing incumbents are pretty much guaranteed competition time themselves once that phase is reached.
What happens now?
The Yaris's development will continue with private testing in a variety of locations to gain experience of the differing conditions that the WRC presents - temperature, altitude, road surface, dust, snow, rain, fog... - all of the climatic and topographic variables that make the WRC the challenge that it is.
Now that parent company Toyota Motor Corp has made it official, the budget constraints necessarily imposed to this point will have been relaxed, enabling the development to progress more quickly and opening the door for parallel development across chassis, systems and drivetrain. Expect a raft of different test vehicles to appear regularly and disappear just as regularly.
Toyota won't be doing this by halves.
How will they measure progress?
This is key to preparing a competitive vehicle. As the new kids on the block, at least as far as recent WRC experience goes, TMG has an uphill battle on its hands, despite its long and successful previous association. The rally weapon of choice today is a far cry from the beasts of yesteryear, and all of Toyota's competitors have a significant head start on the Japanese giant. Being big will certainly help, but it's no guarantee of success.
The theory of building a competitive machine will be well understood, and by now TMG will have tested the Yaris against both the Fiesta RS WRC and the DS3 WRC (it seems rather less likely that they've managed to get their hands on the i20 or Polo R), so they have the basic information the team needs in order to meet specific targets such as power, torque, brake performance, basic handling and many others. But is that enough to deliver a WRC weapon that can match the class leader? Clearly not.
At a point in the near future, progress must be measured on actual rallies. Not with a full-spec WRC car initially, but with a testing mule in WRC2. Remember Ogier's year in the Fabia? Same kind of thing here. During the next two years, we'll see a homologation of the Yaris probably as an R5 derivative which will not only supply much-needed data for the engineers in the heat of competition, but will identify any real-world weaknesses of the car.
The logical process for that phase will be for the Yaris to compete infrequently at first in regional events - ERC, APRC or MERC for example - followed by selected WRC2 appearances with increasing frequency as the project builds momentum. Beginning in 2016, the Yaris WRC will begin to appear on selected WRC rallies but outside of the official team championship entry regulations. This new phase will materialise as a privateer-style ad hoc programme, offering competitive testing without the pressure of having to achieve championship success.
Who'll drive for the TMG WRC team?
Crystal ball time, I'm afraid. This far out from the start of the WRC campaign, it's not possible to make an educated guess around the team drivers. However, what we can confidently predict is that the number 1 or 2 drivers of the current teams will be the most likely prospects. And it doesn't really matter who drives for whom right now; the lead drivers in 2015 or 2016 will not necessarily be in those team roles by 2017.
Think about it. Currently there are four 'lead' drivers in WRC; Ogier, Meeke, Evans and Neuville. None of those drivers has a guaranteed place in 2017. So depending on their performances over the next two years, or their willingness to be head-hunted to another team, the landscape will be remarkably different in the months leading up to the start of the 2017 season.
Ford will be under pressure now to go hard or go home. And with its long history in the WRC, going home is not a very attractive prospect. So a reasonable prediction will be for the blue oval to officially re-enter the WRC and give its defacto motorsport arm, M-Sport, a bigger budget to play with. Expect a third factory car to run in a second team, just as the competition does. From a publicity point of view, and manufacturer points notwithstanding, a Ford win is still a win despite it being from the second team.
If we were going by today's form sheet, the most desirable horses in this race would have to be Ogier, Latvala, Meeke, Neuville and Mikkelsen. Toyota would likely choose one of those five thoroughbreds as its lead driver. But two years is a long time in WRC and the next tier of drivers will only get better. So in the up-and-coming column, we can offer Evans, Tanak, Paddon, Chardonnet and Lefebvre.
Why not Ostberg? Or Sordo? Well, despite their extensive experience at WRC level, neither driver has shown the consistently fast performance needed to regularly win rallies and thus championships. That's not to say they're not quick. They most definitely are, but their records don't have the numbers to make a compelling argument for their inclusion in this hypothetical selection pool. It seems that both drivers have peaked and plateaued.
Here's my prediction: Sébastien Ogier will be lead driver, Camilli will be number 2. Would SebO really change camps? Why not? He's at the peak of his potential earning capability and money talks. Plus his contract with VW expires in 2016 so what's to prevent him moving to TMG? Nothing, if Toyota offer the right package.
Will Yaris win the WCM first time out?
Quite probably. They'll do the car right, employ the fastest drivers they can and come the first event of 2017, they will be totally competitive. Just as VW were before them. There are a couple of unanswerable questions though. Who will their competition be, for starters?
Citroen have been incredibly successful for a decade but last year was a fairly half-hearted one for the team. They need to win and win big to convince the parent company it's worth continuing in the WRC. Monte was a poor start with Meeke's and Loeb's errors costly for the team. The prognosis is poor for Citroen if Meeke doesn't win several rallies this year. He's quick, but can he win rallies? And if so, can he win enough of them?
VW have had two extraordinary years, and Monte showed that their run is certainly not over, achieving as they did a 1, 2, 3 finish. Outstanding. But VW has a spotty history in the WRC and the temptation is to think that their attention span as a company is brief. Despite their success so far, it's not unreasonable to think that 2016 might be the year they call it quits, especially if they don't win the championship this year or next.
Hyundai need to have some convincing wins this season and next to justify their appearance in the WRC. Last year was a learning year for the Korean team and their expectations were appropriately modest. In 2015, they must prove themselves a credible force in the championship. Yes, they're still using their old car and VW and Citroen have shifted the goal posts with their evolution models, but life's tough and people only remember the results, not the reasons why. A couple of wins this year and a few more next year will ensure they're in the WRC in 2017.
Ford... ah Ford. Motorsport boss Gerard Quinn has been having a spirited Twitter 'conversation' with Colin Clark from WRC Live about Ford's level of participation on the WRC. Clark pointed out, rightly, that despite the marque's input in providing technical development, cars and expertise to the Ford-driving rally competitors, the financial support provided to M-Sport is clearly well below the budgets enjoyed by VW, Citroen and Hyundai. And the absence of the Ford brand on the M-Sport team entries demonstrates a perceived lack of commitment and will. Ford will either be shamed into providing increased support in 2016 or spit the dummy and bail completely. However, I favour the former possibility.
Will the 'Shootout' faction finally shut up?
WRC Promoter, the company that runs the WRC under licence from the FIA, has shown an unnerving tendency to want to fiddle with the DNA of the sport, much to the annoyance and horror of the sport's fanbase. The almost idealogical obsession with packaging each WRC event as an hour of live TV has been the the focus of the promoter from the start, and despite its obvious destructive potential, even the teams themselves and some high profile commentators were apparently convinced that without the frankenstein mutations proposed, the WRC was doomed.
Luckily for the fans, the FIA booted the notion into touch and called on the promoter to do its job and promote the WRC as it is. Meanwhile, and as predicted by almost everybody else, focusing less on live TV and providing streaming audio, plus video, real-time car tracking and more via WRC+, has opened the championship up in an engaging way that not only keeps existing and potential new fans interested, but can be monetized as well. Although WRC+ itself needs to be actively marketed (maybe on TV, paradoxically), it's a promising beginning.
But what will help more than anything is for more manufacturers to rejoin the championship (I'm looking at you Mitsubishi and Subaru), or to enter for the first time so there's real competition. Nothing is more likely to doom the WRC than the kind of hegemony experienced in the Loeb/Citroen years, despite the former world champ's genius behind the wheel. In the same vein, Ogier becoming WRC Drivers Champion this year for the third time will do the championship no good at all.
While we won't see the benefits in their entirety until 2017, the mere expectation of many bitterly fought rallies to come with far fewer foregone conclusions is reason enough for optimism and joy. The WRC lives!
Thanks Toyota, for your timely commitment.
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